So, Harris, what are you going to do with all those young tobacco connoisseurs you tempted to Florida, and have tossed in the hole in your basement.
Be sure they apply the sanitizer.
We Are So Screwed
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Be sure they apply the sanitizer.
I’m within driving distance; I could be there in an hour with the right road conditions.I live in the same city as Jay, so I think it should be me but I’m sure he has other arrangements.
I would really miss his awesome posts though.
I think a key point here is what can your medical system cope with?
The stats the other day that I saw in the UK is that only 1 in 10 intensive care beds were empty. So let’s assume this is only worse than the standard flu by 2x, but as far as we are aware, most of the population do not have a natural immunity, then take the number of vulnerable, which I read recently in the UK is at least 1.5 million and throw whatever percentage you want from that group on top of a medical system that many argue has been under invested into and has limited capacity in the best of times, and as they say, there’s your problem!
In the UK they are trying to free up intensive care beds, recall retired medical personnel and get equipment and supplies like ventilators on the ready. They are watching what is going on in Italy and going oh crap, that could happen here too. It might not, but by the time you realize it is happening in your own back yard, it is too late.
So these social distancing measures are not in my view going to stop it. It is to try to smooth out the growth curve so to protect our medical systems so that what we normally can do to save lives continues and of course whatever this fiasco brings to the rodeo on top of it.
The problem I see on top of this is that this situation, compared to the 2008 economic crisis is this is not just economic policy. Even with fire sale debt investment going on by governments, getting people to work without exasperating the above scenario is a no win situation. And some day the piper (not a tobacco one) will need to be paid On all that debt. In my view it will be almost impossible to avert a global recession of some sort.
If they can get tests to determine who has natural immunity and a vaccine developed, we can shortcut the natural course of the herd building up some of immunity. Until then, there’s not much else we can do other than do our best to cooperate with the course of this. We all need to try to do our part. This could be around through the summer easily.
The stats the other day that I saw in the UK is that only 1 in 10 intensive care beds were empty. So let’s assume this is only worse than the standard flu by 2x, but as far as we are aware, most of the population do not have a natural immunity, then take the number of vulnerable, which I read recently in the UK is at least 1.5 million and throw whatever percentage you want from that group on top of a medical system that many argue has been under invested into and has limited capacity in the best of times, and as they say, there’s your problem!
In the UK they are trying to free up intensive care beds, recall retired medical personnel and get equipment and supplies like ventilators on the ready. They are watching what is going on in Italy and going oh crap, that could happen here too. It might not, but by the time you realize it is happening in your own back yard, it is too late.
So these social distancing measures are not in my view going to stop it. It is to try to smooth out the growth curve so to protect our medical systems so that what we normally can do to save lives continues and of course whatever this fiasco brings to the rodeo on top of it.
The problem I see on top of this is that this situation, compared to the 2008 economic crisis is this is not just economic policy. Even with fire sale debt investment going on by governments, getting people to work without exasperating the above scenario is a no win situation. And some day the piper (not a tobacco one) will need to be paid On all that debt. In my view it will be almost impossible to avert a global recession of some sort.
If they can get tests to determine who has natural immunity and a vaccine developed, we can shortcut the natural course of the herd building up some of immunity. Until then, there’s not much else we can do other than do our best to cooperate with the course of this. We all need to try to do our part. This could be around through the summer easily.
George,
The devil is always in the details. Politicians do LIVE for opportunities like this. So do businessmen, demagogues, self proclaimed prophets, and predators. An example is the guy who ran around 4 states buying up all the hand sanitizer that he could find so he could charge 1000% profit on it. One asshole was charging $15,000 for a four pack of Purell on Amazon. But it's just supply and demand, right?
Any crisis brings out villains and angels.
The world came back after the Spanish Flu. I would like to think it will come back after this.
But I also think that there will be profound change brought about by people sequestering during this pandemic. How many people will continue to wash their hands constantly, or avoid going to large events? Some people will be traumatized for a long time after this and others will shake it off and go about their business. Some people might discover that they really like spending time with their families, or talking with each other over dinner. What other changes in behavior will come out of this, especially if this goes on for months. I have no idea. Neither does anyone else.
I agree. Another thought is that old school companies that insist on brick and mortar offices may decide that they actually can function more virtually. This will mean possibly that the days of moving somewhere for some jobs will become less necessary and bringing employment to communities that would never have that industry move to them.
Other pertinent numbers are the R0 (contagion rate), and the percentage of people who get seriously ill. This thing seems to be contagious as hell, and also to have many more cases which require hospitalization.
A rapid spread and a high hospitalization rate taken together increase the risk of overloading our medical systems. That has happened in Italy and it increases the death rate of course.
That's why we are taking the extreme steps we are.
Just as the scientists have been telling us.
I have taken this seriously from the beginning, however I do not think it is the end of the world right now. Not yet, anyway.
If we continue to listen to the scientists for a change, even after the weeks of denial we may well come out of this barely scathed.
Absolutely spot on. We've talked about "virtual" offices for 20 years, but for the most part this hasn't happened. But I'm already seeing this begin to take shape in my industry.
Warners ordered us to bug out on Monday. We took our workstations home and set up with VPN to access our servers, and with several different applications to handle email and other communications.
Today I saw an announcement from another animation studio looking to staff new productions remotely. They''re not closing their doors, they're adapting.
Funny enough, interesting article in the WP on this today.
Nope! I ordered a consignment from Esterval’s earlier this week and grabbed a few bit from SP too.
LMAO, M95 masks? We got nothing on the 16th century. History repeats itself!
It's because some of the most dangerous secondary conditions include Cardiovascular Disease, Chronic Respiratory Disease, High Blood Pressure, and Diabetes.
That's pretty much a list of what you get from being excessively fat, and the majority of those people will be men.
We have more women then men infected in my state...we must have some linebackers here.
Well out here in the wilderness thing are normal. I am in Illinois and we are on lockdown but in the south of the state everything is still open but the restaurants. My work is still open
Yikes. The end of the world gang and The nothing is wrong crew in one place?
I think it can be a good lesson in being self sufficient as much as possible
In good times, enterprises that stockpile and spend money mitigating risk lose out to those that don’t.
In bad times, the opposite: enterprises that stockpile and mitigate risk win compared to those that don’t.
After several decades of good times, competition has eliminated most of the enterprises that mitigate risk. There will be a reset, maybe even an overreaction.
I know a few industries that put in disaster recovery procedures and work-from-home technology after 9/11. That infrastructure and capability sure is coming in handy now.
Hoosier quoted a respiratory therapist as saying humans have no immune response to this virus, but then why do most folks get only mild symptoms and recover fully ? This doesn't seem logical to me. Could somebody shed some light on this ?
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