Update on the STG Closure Of Sutliff and Mac Baren

[buroak]

I'm not sure that privately owned VS publicly traded is the crux of the problem here. The family didn't want to keep the business, which is why it was sold. That it was sold to a passionless robot of a corporation is another matter.

Regardless, I hate to see pipe smokers' options further thinned, despite my not being a big fan of Mac Baren, or STG, though I did in the past stock some products that were excellent, like Doblone d'Oro. If my recent purchase is any kind of indicator, in the six ensuing years since my last order, their quality has fallen off a cliff. Not entirely surprising in the case of St Bruno...

Denmark has always been the place where British blends go to die...

Their Viking heritage aside, Danish blenders treat British blends like they're virginal spinsters, producing balless, hairless, lobotimized versions.

STG won't make any of it any better.

For me, Sutliff is the far greater loss. Carl McAllister's excellent series of match blends were an excellent value and pretty damned good. Sutliff's aged red Virginia releases were excellent. A lot of other blenders rely on their inventory. Compared to the potential of STG's mediocre maw swallowing up Sutliff, Mac Baren feels like a blip.

You're correct in surmising that the only official beneficiary, and not much of one at that, are the shareholders. The biggest beneficiaries are "C" suite.

It's a done deal.

Sutliff is definitely the greater loss. They have a few blends that go head-to-head with STG, and I have never experienced Sutliff losing in those contests.

Without their blending components, I am going to have to start buying whole leaf tobacco. Even C&D doesn’t have Sutliff’s range.

As for my public vs. private comment, even in the dotage of this last generation of family control, Mac Baren kept some good things going. It may have been purely accidental, and most of it may have happened at Sutliff.

STG’s lifeblood of quarterly earnings calls to investors who wouldn’t know perique from paprika, but who listen to descriptions of EBITDA like they were the whispering of a phone-sex worker, will be the death of longstanding and inspired blends.

 

[buroak]

I'm licensed disposal.

Back in April there were 10 of them.

Goes great with Mad Dog 20/20 Grape, or at least as well as anything can go with Mad Dog Grape.

 

[Chasing Embers]

Goes great with Mad Dog 20/20 Grape, or at least as well as anything can go with Mad Dog Grape.

Only a hint of grape, much less than Visions of Celephaïs. Goes great blended with Penzance and Margate.

 

[Richmond B. Funkenhouser]

I respect your opinion, but is the death of pipe tobacco that nigh?

It's nigh enough to prepare for it now, if having tobacco is important to you.

The selection will decrease more and more, and the quality of what's left will be less and less. That's due to less demand.

The price is going to shoot through the roof at some point... Further decreasing demand.

There's an issue with the whole RYO/pipe tobacco situation. The governments, and many people on this forum, use emotion to try and separate the two... But truly they are the same animal.

This realization will cause a huge increase in the way pipe tobacco is taxed. There is practically nobody working for pipe smokers in D.C., there are people protecting cigars... For now. Pipe Tobacco has been catching that drift for a long time... That will end over this RYO problem, and the taxes will increase.

I saw Carlito Fuente, the guy from Arturo Fuente cigars, in an interview running down cigarettes with everything he had. They know the key to survival is to be separated from "those nasty cigarettes" as far as possible.

Pipe tobacco in Santa Claus' pipe causes warm and happy emotions in people. Pipe tobacco in an ex concvict's home-made cigarette is highly offensive and makes people upset.

The GH lady said that they want repeat customers and don't benefit as much from people building a cellar... She says they need people who buy regularly. She says a lot, I know. But most of the real... Sorry to possibly offend some people, but the real pipe smokers will soon all be dead from old age. This stuff here, of people buying 20 pounds of tobacco and posting pictures of it, while they smoke 3 bowls a month, and then moving on to collect fancy fountain pens, ain't going to keep the pipe tobacco demand alive. IMHO

What happens after all this plays out...

Check out Austraila, thousand dollar pounds of tobacco. Look at Canada, fifty dollar pouches of chewing tobacco. They only have the variety they have because of the rest of the world's demand.

My guess is that in 20 years there will be pipe tobacco still in production... But it will be very expensive, low quality, and there will be little variety.

Pipe tobacco will never be cheaper, and more available than it is now. It has been cheaper and more available than it is now... But those days ain't coming back.

I'm not claiming to be an expert, I'm far from it. I am a lover of all things tobacco, probably a little obsessed with it, and I've been reading threads like this for years. I see the writing on the wall. Don't you?

 

[mr_future]

I think one cannot be certain of any market 20 years out. If one was, that one would be rich.

Edit: I get there are a lot of concerns, but there are positive changes that could happen, too, or at least I like to think so.

 

[Richmond B. Funkenhouser]

I think one cannot be certain of any market 20 years out. If one was, that one would be rich.

I don't know how you can get rich from this kind of prediction...

Unless you want to go full on black market, and have the ATF get you.

This is different from other market predictions.

 

[sardonicus87]

It's nigh enough to prepare for it now, if having tobacco is important to you.

The selection will decrease more and more, and the quality of what's left will be less and less. That's due to less demand.

The price is going to shoot through the roof at some point... Further decreasing demand.

There's an issue with the whole RYO/pipe tobacco situation. The governments, and many people on this forum, use emotion to try and separate the two... But truly they are the same animal.

This realization will cause a huge increase in the way pipe tobacco is taxed. There is practically nobody working for pipe smokers in D.C., there are people protecting cigars... For now. Pipe Tobacco has been catching that drift for a long time... That will end over this RYO problem, and the taxes will increase.

I saw Carlito Fuente, the guy from Arturo Fuente cigars, in an interview running down cigarettes with everything he had. They know the key to survival is to be separated from "those nasty cigarettes" as far as possible.

Pipe tobacco in Santa Claus' pipe causes warm and happy emotions in people. Pipe tobacco in an ex concvict's home-made cigarette is highly offensive and makes people upset.

The GH lady said that they want repeat customers and don't benefit as much from people building a cellar... She says they need people who buy regularly. She says a lot, I know. But most of the real... Sorry to possibly offend some people, but the real pipe smokers will soon all be dead from old age. This stuff here, of people buying 20 pounds of tobacco and posting pictures of it, while they smoke 3 bowls a month, and then moving on to collect fancy fountain pens, ain't going to keep the pipe tobacco demand alive. IMHO

What happens after all this plays out...

Check out Austraila, thousand dollar pounds of tobacco. Look at Canada, fifty dollar pouches of chewing tobacco. They only have the variety they have because of the rest of the world's demand.

My guess is that in 20 years there will be pipe tobacco still in production... But it will be very expensive, low quality, and there will be little variety.

Pipe tobacco will never be cheaper, and more available than it is now. It has been cheaper and more available than it is now... But those days ain't coming back.

I'm not claiming to be an expert, I'm far from it. I am a lover of all things tobacco, probably a little obsessed with it, and I've been reading threads like this for years. I see the writing on the wall. Don't you?

It's kind of one of those situations where it depends whether most of the masses are rational or irrational. When there's a crack in a system, if people don't get scared and panic, the crack can be repaired. Yet time and time again, how often has there been no toilet paper, no gasoline, etc, because too many people thought "I have to stock up now" and bought it all out, when there'd have been plenty to go around and no need for rationing. They created the very shortages they feared because humans are emotional and dumb, and emotion trumps logic far more often than the other way around. They stampeded and the pressure burst the crack to a bigger repair job.

So the ones that remain rational end up losing out while the fearful ones end up wasting half of what they squandered (maybe not the toilet paper, that has a much longer shelf-life than gasoline).

To relate that to the tobacco situation... it'll be the hoarders who laugh last when everyone else has nothing. Though in this case, the hoarding now rather than consistent buying isn't totally irrational... afterall, there aren't increasing governmental efforts to stamp out the use of toilet paper, and at least the efforts to eliminate gas and combustion engines have an alternative in electric that may one day catch up and surpass ICEs... but there's no replacement for tobacco.

Because consistently buying a tin every week rather than hoarding bulk for less (long-term) might better help keep the business lights on, but it won't stop the government from trying to take the bulbs.

 

[Richmond B. Funkenhouser]

It's kind of one of those situations where it depends whether most of the masses are rational or irrational. When there's a crack in a system, if people don't get scared and panic, the crack can be repaired. Yet time and time again, how often has there been no toilet paper, no gasoline, etc, because too many people thought "I have to stock up now" and bought it all out, when there'd have been plenty to go around and no need for rationing. They created the very shortages they feared because humans are emotional and dumb, and emotion trumps logic far more often than the other way around. They stampeded and the pressure burst the crack to a bigger repair job.

So the ones that remain rational end up losing out while the fearful ones end up wasting half of what they squandered (maybe not the toilet paper, that has a much longer shelf-life than gasoline).

To relate that to the tobacco situation... it'll be the hoarders who laugh last when everyone else has nothing. Though in this case, the hoarding now rather than consistent buying isn't totally irrational... afterall, there aren't increasing governmental efforts to stamp out the use of toilet paper, and at least the efforts to eliminate gas and combustion engines have an alternative in electric that may one day catch up and surpass ICEs... but there's no replacement for tobacco.

Because consistently buying a tin every week rather than hoarding bulk for less (long-term) might better help keep the business lights on, but it won't stop the government from trying to take the bulbs.

Once the combustion engine is as hated as tobacco, you can count it gone. Haha

 

[sardonicus87]

Once the combustion engine is as hated as tobacco, you can count it gone. Haha

One day it will, as will all things.

There's a pretty funny bit of satire I can't remember now. Something about saving the animals by going vegan, and then pamphlets coming about saving the plants by just eating salt and then in time, pamphlets about 'what did salt ever do?' and I for the life of me can't find it now or remember enough of it or who said/wrote it to find it. Maybe H. L. Mencken, or someone like that.

Though there is a tangentially related quote from Mencken that is fitting:

“The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false-face for the urge to rule it. Power is what all messiahs really seek: not the chance to serve.”

 

[mr_future]

I don't know how you can get rich from this kind of prediction...

I mean that if you could reliably forecast any market 20 years out you could get rich. Maybe it would be better to choose a different market to get rich on, though.

 

[Chasing Embers]

I think one cannot be certain of any market 20 years out. If one was, that one would be rich.

Edit: I get there are a lot of concerns, but there are positive changes that could happen, too, or at least I like to think so.

Easy enough to do. An example would be Cornell and Diehl and Mac Baren. Ten years ago a pound of C&D was around $28 with Mac B at $35. Now C&D is around $53 with Mac B around $77.

 

[Chasing Embers]

I respect your opinion, but is the death of pipe tobacco that nigh?

If the cigarette market crashes, pipe tobacco goes with it.

 

[MisterBadger]

<SNIP> there's no replacement for tobacco.

There is, however, Ersatzpfeifentabak - or as some prefer to call it, E-liquid sucked out of a vape. While most adult ex-smoking users I know seem to have entered a second childhood, displaying an irrational preference for flavours like Lemon Sherbet or Rhubarb and Custard or Strawberry Milkshake (which only vaguely approximate to the real thing, at least, at second hand), there are a few - and decreasing - number of very vague approximations of tobacco, a tiny minority of which claim to imitate pipe tobacco. Of these I would grudgingly admit that maybe one or two actually come close (and are, incidentally, made in the USA). Most of the barely tolerable rest are made in that earthly paradise, The People's Republic Of China... who also manufacture and market at least 90% of the kit that turns the E-goo into nicotine-laced, flavoured steam. And look! There are even E-pipes (Ersatz pipes)! Behold an awful potential future timeline...

Amazon.co.uk : e-pipe

 

[sardonicus87]

Vaping and e-cigarettes are also on the chopping block... "Truth" non-profit or whatever anti-smoking has been hammering anti-vape hard.

 

[MisterBadger]

Vaping and e-cigarettes are also on the chopping block... "Truth" non-profit or whatever anti-smoking has been hammering anti-vape hard.

<SIGH> It's back to the old snuffbox, then... :-/

 

[Elric]

And look! There are even E-pipes (Ersatz pipes)! Behold an awful potential future timeline...

Amazon.co.uk : e-pipe

Ok, that's a bit horrifying. The only silver lining I can grasp is more people would "appear" to be smoking pipes, which may serve to keep it in the public consciousness.

 

[MisterBadger]

Ok, that's a bit horrifying. The only silver lining I can grasp is more people would "appear" to be smoking pipes, which may serve to keep it in the public consciousness.

My consolation (in the very long term) is in contemplating the "tick-tock" of History. Always there are puritan control freaks lobbying government, they try a prohibition, the black market provides a golden opportunity for organised crime, eventually government gives up and just levies taxes instead.

 

[Andre_T]

Once the combustion engine is as hated as tobacco, you can count it gone. Haha

Hello Gavin Newsome... This is where CA appears to be going. lol

 

[Skippy B. Coyote]

This is one of those rare situations where I'm strangely glad to have never found a favorite blend. There are a few Sutliff and Mac Baren blends I really like and smoke often, namely 507C Virginia Slices from Sutliff and HH Pure Virginia as well as Vanilla Flake from Mac Baren, but if they all disappeared tomorrow I'd just load up a pipe of Samuel Gawith Full Virginia Flake and move on... with the occasional complaint about how many times I had to relight it.

My heart definitely goes out to all the folks who's favorite blends may be on the chopping block, but at least there's still probably over a thousand other pipe blends out there to choose from and many from other companies that are likely quite similar to what you currently enjoy. You can look at it as a situation to start panic buying, or you can look at it as an opportunity to try something new.

Never have met a codger who liked trying something new though, so your milage may vary.

 

[Pipke]

Yet time and time again, how often has there been no toilet paper, no gasoline, etc, because too many people thought "I have to stock up now" and bought it all out, when there'd have been plenty to go around and no need for rationing. They created the very shortages they feared because humans are emotional and dumb, and emotion trumps logic far more often than the other way around.

But vendors of toilet paper and gasoline don't hang a sign up that says,

"Orders over $95 get free shipping!"

OK, so I have to buy more GH to get my order over $95. I do that, I reason, because I'm going to smoke it all up in a year anyways.

Mail order tobacco vendors offer even more incentives to buy in bulk, or multiple tins, and save. Gee, should I spend $12.50 or pop down to the local B&M and pay $26.95 for a tin of the same product? Lowered unit costs encourages larger volume purchases.