If someone posts anything about a favorite blend, they generally sell out quickly, and not necessarily from just one person. This is why I would discourage anyone from posting what their favorite blend is. Have you ever heard Brian Levine tell what his favorite blend is on the radioshow? Nope, because he knows there would be a mad rush to buy it up.
Exactly. This is why I extol the virtues of Dan Tobacco's Holly's Non Plus Ultra.
The Charles Foster Kane theory of cellaring aside, which Orson Wells admitted was "dime book psychology", there's one phrase I like that the OP wrote:
Awareness and free choice underpin whether our decisions are rational or not.
though awareness and free choice clearly aren't a bulwark against irrationality. I'm more in the Samuel Clemens camp that people are largely crazy monkeys, including me. After all, if we were perfectly rational, none of us would smoke.
Having been a pipe smoker for about 45 years, I have more of an expectation that I will continue to do so, than not, though I can't predict the future, or when my ticket will get punched.
But the reasons that I cellar are simple and I stated them in another thread here just a few days ago. For me, smoking a pipe is all about flavors. I like that I can enjoy the flavor of a particular blend when I want it, because I've stocked it. I like that I'm largely immune to supply and demand, tax increases, price increases, changes to blends that make them less enjoyable, production bans, potential internet sales bans, or crazed hoarding. I like to have blends to share with others. I like the flavors of many blends that have aged for at least 4 years and I'm not going to get to enjoy that if I don't put them away to age.
In other words, I cellar tobacco for the same reasons that I used to cellar wines.
I cellar what I like to smoke, with the exception of Penznace, which I dislike, and the reasons that I cellar that particular blend is so that I can share it with friends who can't ever find it, or for trading.
If none of this matters to you, then don't cellar. There will still be a lot of good choices, even after the ax falls in August of 2018.