I'll preface this post by saying I am a Broncos fan and live in the Denver metro area. But, I am also a journalism student and do my best to be objective in my writing, including about my favorite teams.
My personal preview for the AFC Championship game next Sunday:
We all know the history of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Brady's 10-4 record against Manning would indicate that the Broncos are facing an uphill battle, but the Patriots (with Brady under center) aren’t the same team that has compiled that 10-4 record against a Peyton Manning led team. Of those 14 games, half have been decided by a touchdown or less. This will be the fourth playoff meeting between Manning and Brady, third in an AFC Championship.
The last time Manning beat the Pats in the game before the Super Bowl was 2006, the year the Colts won their Super Bowl over the Chicago Bears. That was Manning’s one and only ring.
This season though, the Broncos are playing the favorites with Manning leading the way. The Broncos have been a statistical beast, one that is only comparable to … Tom Brady’s New England Patriots. They say defense wins championships, in that case it is a toss up of who’s defense is really better. I’d lean towards saying the Broncos defense is better, but neither team has a definitively more dominant D.
The Broncos have had a pretty good Rush defense, something the Patriots offense has been good at and was featured on Saturday night against the Colts defense who were just abused for six rushing TDs. The Broncos pass defense has been ok, but has taken a blow with the loss of Chris Harris. Tom Brady’s offense is going to rush, but they cannot rely on it to beat the Broncos who had a top 5 rushing defense during the regular season and shut down San Diego’s run game of Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead yesterday.
Brady will have to pass and his receiver corps isn’t the same showstoppers we are used to seeing him have. The dominant passing attack of New England has lost Wes Welker to Denver, Rob Gronkowski to yet another injury and Aaron Hernandez to multiple homicide (convictions pending). Last season the Pats passed for almost 300 yards a game, this season they are down to almost 250. The Pats and Broncos were about even in their passing attack, but this season the Broncos skyrocketed to the number one passing attack in the league (340 yards a game) while the Pats fell to 10th in passing yards per game.
But where the Broncos were killing defenses with their passing attack, the Pats pass defense has shown up. Their secondary has improved and so did their standings amongst pass defenses of the league. They’re not great , but they haven’t gotten torched as badly as Denver has this year. The Broncos were dominant in defending against the pass last year, but this year have tumbled to the near bottom of the league. The Broncos defense just isn’t what it was the last few years while the Pats defense has stepped up against QBs and receivers, bringing themselves up from the near bottom of the league last year to a more respectable middle of the pack in passing yards per game.
So, how does next Sunday play out? Broncos got the monkey off their back from their stunner loss to the Ravens and the Pats, well, they pretty much plan on being here I think. The Pats are the underdog though with a passing attack that has been reduced since the two teams last meeting in December, but their rushing attack has filled in nicely (when they aren’t fumbling the ball). The crazy game last month was an anomaly as the Pats screwed up so badly that they deserved to lose, yet the Broncos did the Pats a solid by turning around and giving the game back to them, and then the win.
It won’t be easy but the headline on Monday will either be “Patriots run down the Broncos defense to advance” or “Manning and Broncos return to Super Bowl after shootout in Denver.” Pats defense certainly has to do their part, and well, or hope that the Broncos beat themselves. The key to the game will be the home field. Sports Authority Field was LOUD during the Chargers game and they will certainly be keyed up for the game in Denver … but there are lots of Patriot fans in the area who may be able to limit the decibel level.
I’m giving the Broncos the win, 34-30. Broncos rush defense is good, but not good enough to stop the Pats from gaining yards on the ground. Even without his usually stellar group of receivers, Brady will find a way to get Edelman and Amendola their work through the air. But, the Broncos are the new Patriots as far as passing goes. They have their secret weapon, hopefully, in Welker. I just hope Welker isn’t the reason the Broncos lose like he has been a part of past key Patriot losses in crunch time.
34-30. Pats defense bends and breaks under the passing attack of Manning, but the Pats won’t just leave Denver without a hard fight.