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warren

Lifer
Sep 13, 2013
11,664
16,016
Foothills of the Chugach Range, AK
I don't believe smoking will ever be illegal but, it will subside to what it was years ago when only those who could easily afford it. smoked at home, when allowed, or, in their club's smoking room. As the costs came down more of the "riff-raff" began to indulge. Now it's coming full circle. Soon, maybe a generation or so, only those who can afford to indulge will enjoy tobacco. Tobacco used to be strictly a luxury and is headed in that direction again. Cigarettes will cease to be a viable product except maybe in the "third world" countries. Pipes and cigars? If you can afford them, they'll be available.

I also envision a not particularly robust "black market" in the future. Tobacco growers will move on to more profitable products and so forth. Wars seem to prop up tobacco sales. Who knows, another big war, free cigarettes to the troops and, maybe, the cycle starts all over. I doubt it though, people are becoming too health conscious I think.
 

bullet08

Lifer
Nov 26, 2018
8,900
37,812
RTP, NC. USA
The costs to the economy are far greater than any tax benefit. These costs factor in illness, lost productivity, and medical costs. In the US it runs into the tens of billions. Of course, those figures are more than a decade old, so may be approaching the 100 billion mark.
But at the same time, some people are profiting from this. Pharmaceutical, insurance, tobacco company, medical field.. They are all over priced and some can't get the benefit they offer. The government talk about controlling the access to these, but most people do not see it coming their way. We know smoking related diseases cost money, but that's why middle class people are paying the bills. Unlike Canada, UK and other places, we (USA) don't have universal health system. So, is it really make sense to penalize smokers? It's almost like saying driving should be banned because of fatalities. Cost of infrastructure, road, medical, stupid people...
 

OzPiper

Lifer
Nov 30, 2020
5,619
29,788
71
Sydney, Australia
I also envision a not particularly robust "black market" in the future. Tobacco growers will move on to more profitable products and so forth. Wars seem to prop up tobacco sales. Who knows, another big war, free cigarettes to the troops and, maybe, the cycle starts all over. I doubt it though, people are becoming too health conscious I think.
Already happening in Oz where there is a growing black market for illegally imported cigarettes.
Also large scale theft (as in warehouses and container loads) of cigarettes making the news from time to time
 

Lyle b

Starting to Get Obsessed
Nov 8, 2019
172
343
50
Northern rivers nsw Australia
I have a mailbox.
Let me know if I can be of assistance.
Gday Woodsroad I really appreciate the offer but wasn't my aim to burden anyone with an attempt get help from anyone although means alot to have it offered . Was more just to let pipers everywhere know how bad the Australian government has become , while it's not illegal to import cigars , snuff and vapes , somehow pipe tobacco is not on that list and therefore we have more young people vaping and smokeing pot , as it's seen as the healthier option , that's not to mention the other illicit drugs easily available and cheaper than a pouch or packet , just dosnt make sense to me , but sorry to whinge , just a sad state of affairs delivered by a dictatorship of incompetent short-sighted policy makers whose only interest is to get their fat grubby fingers in as many cash filled pies as they can , thanks for listening sorry for boring
 

OzPiper

Lifer
Nov 30, 2020
5,619
29,788
71
Sydney, Australia
Was more just to let pipers everywhere know how bad the Australian government has become , while it's not illegal to import cigars , snuff and vapes , somehow pipe tobacco is not on that list and therefore we have more young people vaping and smokeing pot , as it's seen as the healthier option , that's not to mention the other illicit drugs easily available and cheaper than a pouch or packet
Unfortunately pipe tobacco is placed in the same category as roll your own cigarette tobacco - the only thing in common is that both of them are in “loose“ form.

I have yet to confirm, but @Ahi Ka intimated that there might be a loop hole - ropes can be imported as “chewing“ tobacco without a licence/permit.
As long as the excise duty is paid.
 
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Ahi Ka

Lurker
Feb 25, 2020
6,453
31,289
Aotearoa (New Zealand)
Unfortunately pipe tobacco is placed in the same category as roll your own cigarette tobacco - the only thing in common is that both of them are in “loose“ form.

I have yet to confirm, but @Ahi Ka intimated that there might be a loop hole - ropes can be imported as “chewing“ tobacco without a licence/permit.
As long as the excise duty is paid.
Not a loop hole, just that chewing tobacco is also included in the exemptions list like cigars. I haven’t looked at Australian (or NZ) legislation for a while but from memory OZ’s had a caveat of “not intended for smoking purposes” attached to chewing tobacco.
 

Papamique

Part of the Furniture Now
Mar 11, 2020
772
3,920
The costs to the economy are far greater than any tax benefit. These costs factor in illness, lost productivity, and medical costs. In the US it runs into the tens of billions. Of course, those figures are more than a decade old, so may be approaching the 100 billion mark.

And yet alcohol costs the economy even more.

These are their numbers and research about things that are extremely hard to measure and in some cases impossible. I think there is something else going on here.

Not saying tobacco is harmless. It’s not. But then again it doesn’t matter what I think. I follow the laws, I don’t make them.
 

nathaniel

Part of the Furniture Now
Jan 4, 2011
788
483
And yet alcohol costs the economy even more.

These are their numbers and research about things that are extremely hard to measure and in some cases impossible. I think there is something else going on here.

Not saying tobacco is harmless. It’s not. But then again it doesn’t matter what I think. I follow the laws, I don’t make them.
Tobacco is a nootropic. The state can't afford anything that promotes a more thinking, more aggressive, or less domesticated population. Everything is meant to tame us. Consider masculinity, trade jobs, reproduction, food, exercise, leisure... Everything is meant to make us dumb amd docile. Anything that counteracts that is demonized by the state and its propagandists.
 

Mike N

Starting to Get Obsessed
Aug 3, 2023
246
982
I don’t think it’s debatable that ”stress“ in our daily lives contributes to high blood pressure and a myriad of other health problem. Likewise, I think it’s clear to me at least that an evening pipe reduces stress significantly.

From the Mayo Clinic website: “Stress can cause a steep rise in blood pressure. But when stress goes away, blood pressure returns to what it was before the stress.“

The pipe industry needs to fund a peer-reviewed, scientific medical study of the benefits of pipe smoking to counter the anti-smoking crowd and differentiate the risks and benefits of pipe smoking from cigarette inhalers. The focus needs to be on stress reduction. Until this is done, expect more and more regulation.
 
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coys

Can't Leave
Feb 15, 2022
327
740
Missouri
Does the government truly gain by forcing people to quit smoking? It's beyond my understanding why anyone would force another to give up such a simple pleasure. I understand the health risk. But it seems like this is more than an innocent service to the public. Force quitting smoke now. What would be the next? No alcoholic beverages. No coffee. No tea. No education.. Turn back the time to the dark ages where the lords (G men) will dictate when someone can take piss?
Soon all unapproved activities will be banned and we'll all be eating that baby food they fed Robocop
 

jguss

Lifer
Jul 7, 2013
2,385
6,096
Oh yes! That's why I refer to smoking as a "selfish" choice. A lot of other people have to pick up the costs.

This is far from clear. Reputable studies suggest that for healthcare costs alone smokers consume fewer resources because they die sooner, and end-of-life care tends to be expensive for smokers and nonsmokers alike. If everyone lived longer healthcare costs would go up. This is from a study in the New England Journal of Medicine:

IMG_0103.jpeg

As for non healthcare costs the same analysis often yields similar conclusions: dying sooner means you get less governmental benefits (eg SS).

And this is from a study in Finland:

IMG_0104.jpeg

You’ll notice the ringer they threw in at the end to substantiate the point they wanted to prove.

Is the question of the net economic impact of smoking debatable? Sure; once you factor in enough externalities you can prove just about anything. But the brute fact that dying earlier lessens many direct societal costs is true.

And of course this is just a narrow focus on money, and ignores societal questions about the rights of government to impose restrictions on behavior in the name of the greater good. That is a separate and much deeper rabbit hole.
 

brian64

Lifer
Jan 31, 2011
9,597
14,649
Tobacco is a nootropic. The state can't afford anything that promotes a more thinking, more aggressive, or less domesticated population. Everything is meant to tame us. Consider masculinity, trade jobs, reproduction, food, exercise, leisure... Everything is meant to make us dumb amd docile. Anything that counteracts that is demonized by the state and its propagandists.
"I've got one that can see!"

 

daveinlax

Charter Member
May 5, 2009
1,968
2,599
WISCONSIN
It's all about getting votes and staying in power.
I don’t know, it might be more about trying to save money and lives. In the past 3 or 4 years I’ve had 4 fairly young friends who were all heavy smokers die very expensive deaths at tax payer expense. They all went down fighting for their lives but only one quit smoking.
 
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