Prices Through the Years

[OlJawBone]

I always see people urging others to cellar as much tobacco as they can because "tobacco will never be cheaper" or because of the incoming "tobaccopocalypse".

I could see being worried about the banning of flavored tobac and whatnot, but I am very curious about the tobacco will never be cheaper, because while it is surely true, it also applies to nearly everything else in life. I am curious where the price of pipe tobacco has been and where you think it might go to and why?

thanks

 

[cosmicfolklore]

In the future we can expect that like all other forms of tobacco that it will no longer be legal to buy, sell online or by mail, or have it delivered. Which means that you'll be paying retail prices in the future, keystoned at 2-3Xs as much as you are getting it now... which is wholesale. And, if you have neglected your B&Ms to the point of driving them out of business for the sake of paying wholesale prices online, you're just shit out of luck altogether. Add in the cost of gas to drive to the next state to buy.

I predict future taxes on pipe tobacco to reach that of Canadian proportions.

I also predict that as the cigarette industry gets its just desserts for lying to the public for decades, and is driven to stopping all production that we will see fewer and fewer pipe tobacco blends. If not just stopping altogether.

I have absolute faith that in ten years there will no longer be no tobacco products to be found except for people who learn to grow and cure their own. It's just a rolling boulder that cannot be stopped.

 

[STP]

Inflation, supply and demand, taxes, etc., are obvious triggers. Many on here have 10+ lifetimes of tobacco cellared. If there is a “tobaccopocalypse”, their estates might be worth millions ?

 

[cosmicfolklore]

Inflation, supply and demand, taxes, etc., are obvious triggers. Many on here have 10+ lifetimes of tobacco cellared. If there is a “tobaccopocalypse”, their estates might be worth millions ?

Yep, cheapskates be all complaining about the secondary market now. But, to get hold of my cellar once tobacco is gone will cost you a lot more than money.

I don't understand why someone who takes pipe smoking seriously has not already back stocked a cellar for at lest for 10 years or so. Or, maybe they are just dabblers and hobbyists.

 

[OlJawBone]

I have absolute faith that in ten years there will no longer be no tobacco products to be found except for people who learn to grow and cure their own. It's just a rolling boulder that cannot be stopped.

wow thats quite the prediction. somehow to cigarette lobby will finally lose?

 

[OlJawBone]

but also, has it inflated a ton in the last ten years?

 

[lukasstrifeson]

wow thats quite the prediction. somehow to cigarette lobby will finally lose?

Judging by Phillip Morris's recent announcements, the idea is not THAT farfetched.

But I suspect eventually the science will catch up, and the "health benefits" of nicotine or some other aspect of tobacco will be discovered and thus preserving it's legality. (Much in the same idea as Marijuana - THC/CBD and its other active compounds).

 

[lukasstrifeson]

but also, has it inflated a ton in the last ten years?

If you're comparing production tobaccos, I would say the inflation is noticeable but not outrageous. If I had to guess, maybe 10-20%?

If you're talking resale of popular names/blends...

 

[sablebrush52]

Balkan Sobranie Smoking Mixture was a bit pricey at $1.25 for a tin when I used to buy it in the 1970's. Especially when you consider that most bulk could be had for around $4 a pound + or -. When I quit the coffin nails in 1983 they had risen to about 75¢ a pack, just an outrageous amount.
As for what will happen in the future, I have no way of knowing, but my guess would be that nobody is going to give a shit because there will be far more pressing matters with which to be concerned.

 

[Casual]

I could see being worried about the banning of flavored tobac and whatnot, but I am very curious about the tobacco will never be cheaper, because while it is surely true, it also applies to nearly everything else in life.

The rate of tax increase on tobacco products (in many first world nations) is higher than anything other tax I’ve seen. In part it is because of various pledges to eradicate tobacco use by some not-far-off year. (Expect this with gasoline once electric vehicle mandates become common.)

Look at the price of tobacco in the US, then compare to Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. The difference is just in the tax, and it is 3-5x more expensive in some, again, all because of taxes. this is not just inflation or a few percent increase.

It is true that sitting in the US, one might not be able to imagine a $50 pouch of Half and Half. The Australians will tell you about it. But then, who could‘ve imagined any of the heavy handed restrictions we’ve had in the last year? The world is topsy-turvy, and the pessimists at the game have been running the table for quite a while.

 

[bullet08]

Back in 1993, my friends and I used to go this restaurant for $0.20 wing night. A wing, buffalo style, is now over $1.00 here. I read at local Chinese takeout, they are raising price of chicken wing. ¢75 more. Price of any product will go up as time passes. But with tobacco, and the hate associated with it, it's not just supply and demand. Everybody wants to tag penalty tax on it. I remember ¢75 pack of Marlboro from 1981 in NYC. Paid $6.80 few days ago here in NC. I'm pretty sure they will keep tobacco around to milk us to death.

 

[saltedplug]

I like that the dual dialogue between the abolitionists and profit-driven business, the latter winning due to the immensity of their resources.

 

[elnoblecigarro]

View attachment 92000
In the future we can expect that like all other forms of tobacco that it will no longer be legal to buy, sell online or by mail, or have it delivered.

This is already a reality here in Finland. I believe it will be in most of Europe very soon if not already.

 

[saltedplug]

Money = power, and Big Tobacco certainly has the former. How else to explain why the big guns from Big Tobacco were not convicted, publicly put in chains and led away to jail at their trial. Their guilt was overwhelmingly established before the proceedings.

Money is power.

 

[smokeymo]

In Scotland they plan to be tobacco free by 2030.

I really dislike the "buy as much as you can right now" mentality. Why? Because it is inflating the price of tobacco. Prices aren't rising because it is becoming rarer, it is because people are panic-buying crazy amounts. Buying as much as you can increases demand and manufacturers and retailers can charge more. Granted the price will likely not go back down at this point, but it might stop accelerating at the rate it currently is.

 

[warren]

Money! One needs it to buy the things one wants in life such as cigarettes, pipes, automobiles, a roof over the head, etc. Money good! Money is power. Power is good. Money and power are goals worth striving for. Ask someone without money and/or who feels powerless.

 

[kcghost]

When you look at the size of most of the tobacco blending firms there is really very few of them of any real size. As likely as not the tobacco you like the most will not be available in 10 - 20 Years. And when the guy is gone who blends you can bet dollars to donuts that the next guy who tries to blend will miss the mark by a wide margin. And we are constantly beset by the dual demons of "tax'em to death" and "we want to be smoke free". Planning for the future by stocking up is simply prudent. "Tobacco will never be more plentiful than it is today and tobacco will never be any cheaper". Buy all you can afford until you have more than you need to last out your life.

 

[cosmicfolklore]

Money = power, and Big Tobacco certainly has the former.

Big Tobacco has diversified out from tobacco into other agricultural products. They bought up Kraft and a few other brands back in the late 90’s. Remember all of the Late Night hosts making jokes about smoked Kraft cheeses, because of Kraft cheese merge?

I see PM and other tobacco names all over Ag periodicals now. If tobacco was made illegal tomorrow, they would barely see a drop in stock prices because they run the Ag industry. Everyone has to eat.

 

[cigrmaster]

I bought Mac Baren Old Dark Fired 3.5 oz tins in 2012 when it came out for 9.99 or 10.99. It now sells for 20.70 a tin.

 

[fireground_piper]

It’s the tax and that statement I would venture is more directed at the Americans. Just look at Florida as a quick example, the tobacco tax is like 80-85%. Your $11 online tin is going to run you at least $20 if purchased within the state borders. That’s just one example.
The MSRP isn’t necessarily the price you are protecting against. It’s the future legislative cost increases.