Nuclear Fusion
- Thread starter Winnipeger
- Start date
In @Andriko 's defense, expecting people to discuss "science" these days without any political commentary at all is actually ridiculous IMO. Science in so many areas, in so many ways, has become such a corrupted political weapon that it's difficult in the extreme to discuss it without addressing the political issues involved.
The problem is that before we in the general public can have any realistic perspective on what is or isn't feasible, or worthy of any "public funding", we first must be able to trust the "scientific community".
The current situation is actually much worse than what Eisenhower warned of...it's not just that "public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite" ... we're way beyond that ... it's now at the point where science itself has become the captive of a financial elite who are above the law and are corrupting the scientific process to use as a way of manipulating public perception and justifying their agendas.
The last thing these "elite" want is for the general public to have efficient, inexpensive clean energy. They can't control people that way. They want the public struggling and fearful...that's how you keep them in line. So if fusion does work, I wouldn't expect it to be made easily available to the public.
It is well to take Eisenhower’s 1953 “Chance for Peace” speech entirely in context, and not cherry pick it.
Fifty years ago, before reactionary cable news commentators had such a wide audience, this speech was taught in public schools, preached from Christian Church pulpits, and mothers had children recite it to them.
It’s truly one of the most eloquent missives on the necessity of world peace since the Sermon on the Mount.
Ironically, the General who delivered the world from the evil of Nazism would have, along with his Amish and Campbellite brethren, have automatically qualified as a conscientious objector, had he so elected. Ike was born a Mennonite.
—-
And so it has come to pass that the Soviet Union itself has shared and suffered the very fears it has fostered in the rest of the world.
This has been the way of life forged by 8 years of fear and force.
What can the world, or any nation in it, hope for if no turning is found on this dread road?
The worst to be feared and the best to be expected can be simply stated.
The worst is atomic war.
The best would be this: a life of perpetual fear and tension; a burden of arms draining the wealth and the labor of all peoples; a wasting of strength that defies the American system or the Soviet system or any system to achieve true abundance and happiness for the peoples of this earth.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone.
It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.
The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities.
It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population.
It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some 50 miles of concrete highway.
We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat.
We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.
This, I repeat, is the best way of life to be found on the road. the world has been taking.
This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.
—-
Eisenhower was raised up, as a Mennonite, but for political reasons decided to join St Paul’s Church.
—
Born into a family of Pennsylvania Dutch Mennonites, Eisenhower's decision to pursue a military and then a political career put him at odds with the Mennonites' pacifistic traditions. He became a Presbyterian in 1953, after his first election, and sponsored prayers at cabinet sessions and held prayer breakfasts. When the local minister boasted that Eisenhower was joining his church, the president exploded to his press secretary, "You go and tell that goddamn minister that if he gives out one more story about my religious faith I will not join his goddamn church!"
—-
Scientists, we shall have with us always.
It is well they devote their genius to forging swords into plowshares, and not hang humanity, upon a cross of iron.
Fifty years ago, before reactionary cable news commentators had such a wide audience, this speech was taught in public schools, preached from Christian Church pulpits, and mothers had children recite it to them.
It’s truly one of the most eloquent missives on the necessity of world peace since the Sermon on the Mount.
Ironically, the General who delivered the world from the evil of Nazism would have, along with his Amish and Campbellite brethren, have automatically qualified as a conscientious objector, had he so elected. Ike was born a Mennonite.
—-
And so it has come to pass that the Soviet Union itself has shared and suffered the very fears it has fostered in the rest of the world.
This has been the way of life forged by 8 years of fear and force.
What can the world, or any nation in it, hope for if no turning is found on this dread road?
The worst to be feared and the best to be expected can be simply stated.
The worst is atomic war.
The best would be this: a life of perpetual fear and tension; a burden of arms draining the wealth and the labor of all peoples; a wasting of strength that defies the American system or the Soviet system or any system to achieve true abundance and happiness for the peoples of this earth.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone.
It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.
The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities.
It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population.
It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some 50 miles of concrete highway.
We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat.
We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.
This, I repeat, is the best way of life to be found on the road. the world has been taking.
This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.
—-
Eisenhower was raised up, as a Mennonite, but for political reasons decided to join St Paul’s Church.
—
Born into a family of Pennsylvania Dutch Mennonites, Eisenhower's decision to pursue a military and then a political career put him at odds with the Mennonites' pacifistic traditions. He became a Presbyterian in 1953, after his first election, and sponsored prayers at cabinet sessions and held prayer breakfasts. When the local minister boasted that Eisenhower was joining his church, the president exploded to his press secretary, "You go and tell that goddamn minister that if he gives out one more story about my religious faith I will not join his goddamn church!"
—-
Scientists, we shall have with us always.
It is well they devote their genius to forging swords into plowshares, and not hang humanity, upon a cross of iron.
Last edited:
This 'fusion' thing has been bringing up the AD 1997's movie "The Saint" constantly to my mind since I first saw this thread.
Oh, but maybe I'm getting into 'poo-litics'.
Oh, but maybe I'm getting into 'poo-litics'.
I strongly agree with most of this. ^
That's part of the point I was making above. I don't understand the knee-jerk mistrust of science and scientists per se when it's obviously the financial sector that the (U.S.) government is beholden to. To what extent experimental physics is beholden to the financial sector is debatable.
Whenever someone is paying you to do something, you obviously need to take their interests and desires into consideration. That seems blindingly obvious. What's not obvious is that there's some cabal of elite scientists motivated by a secret agenda to control peoples lives and minds. I know a lot of people believe these things. Maybe that's because their lives and minds are being controlled by certain media outlets or internet trolls.
When the physicists and engineers are designing their systems and experiments — which might serve to advance human knowledge — do you really think their end goal is some kind of social control and exploitation? That seems kind of paranoid to me. It's the same with governments and corporations. Most people are self motivated, this is true, but not psychopathic. If things are bad, it has more to do with incompetence, laziness, inertia etc, than maliciousness. That's what I believe. Now, I lived with a sociopath once in a small cabin onboard a ship for 4 months. So, I know there are people out there who are motivated to ruin people's lives given the opportunity...because it's fun for them. A little bit of evil can have a way of trumping the benevolence of a mass of people. I don't think that's the general rule in society though.
For those of you interested in the science of nuclear fusion, here's an interesting article describing the massive, potentially insurmountable engineering challenges. Despite the roadblocks, I don't imagine physicists are going to reach a point any time soon when they say, "This is too hard. We give up."
Science | AAAS - https://www.science.org/content/article/fusion-power-may-run-fuel-even-gets-started
Science | AAAS - https://www.science.org/content/article/fusion-power-may-run-fuel-even-gets-started
I wrote a whole book in response to this, to be sensitive to nuance.
I'll try again with a very short reply.
...Nope, couldn't do it.
The short, and possibly uninteresting version:
We have in computer security: "Everyone is not out to get you, but someone is."
Many security mechanisms stop working once the right breach is accomplished.
Love scientific method, and statistics. Hate those that tell 1/2 truths and use science and statistics to control others.
Though I'm naturally extremely trusting, I have to force myself to be skeptical.
I've seen a lot of destruction due to blind-trust so I try to question, because I am responsible in any subject where I am going to exercise influence. It is a lot of work, so I have to limit the subjects I exercise influence in.
Just more conspiracies no doubt. No way “they” would do something like that, this is America after all…
Last edited:
Not at all, been going on for decades at several sites. Here's one of the more recent ones though I think another was discovered last year.
Nuclear waste dumped illegally in Ky.
Kentucky officials this week are warning all landfills to be on the lookout for illegal low level nuclear waste.
www.courier-journal.com
A Kentucky Town’s Struggle with Illegally Dumped Radioactive Waste - https://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/articles/entry/kentucky-towns-illegally-dumped-radioactive-waste/
This is about locally-run landfills accepting radioactive waste produced by the fracking industry.
It's not a conspiracy, but it is a red herring in a discussion about nuclear fusion. Notice: it isn't nuclear physicists dumping radioactive waste, but just another example of extractive industries spoiling the planet.
Indeed.
Probably not. But I wouldn’t put it past the guys that pay the nuclear physicists. They seem to be quite capable of all manner of shenanigans.
OK. Is that an analogy? I'm pretty dense. I don't follow exactly what your response has to do with what I said. Maybe I should read your book?
Agreed.
I would count myself the exact opposite of that.
Again, could you elaborate? I'm not sure if I'm reading you correctly. It sounds like you're saying it's irresponsible or potentially destructive to "exercise influence" in "subjects" beyond those you limit yourself to. Is that meant to be prescriptive?
That is my fault, in my attempt for brevity I abandoned too much clarification.
I'd love to elaborate, but don't have the time right now.
I love to tease out these sorts of things, but they do have a tendency to lead to "spicy conversation". Rather than get this thread locked I might try to elaborate in a PM.
Presently I have a blizzard to fight.
Boy you guys got hit bad. It's been snowing for days here, but we only experienced the Northern edge of this storm. Merry Christmas and happy shovelling!
Very interesting, thanks for sharing!
It's rather unrelated to the OT though: we are still to see the same hype for NF as for quantum computers. So no bubble to burst (yet). But everything may change in the next few years.
First I must say it's difficult to debate with someone who has such an inspiring signature quote.
Nevertheless, I'll just say that I don't think most people who are skeptical of "establishment science" think it is the rank and file scientists themselves who have some nefarious hidden agendas. It is generally understood that they are just taking the money and doing their jobs. They are blamed for selling out.
But there are many honest scientists all over the world who have not sold out and remain committed to upholding the integrity of the scientific process in any given discipline. And many of them have paid a high personal price for this...they are usually black-balled in one way or another...or worse.
Not at all, been going on for decades at several sites. Here's one of the more recent ones though I think another was discovered last year.
Nuclear waste dumped illegally in Ky.
Kentucky officials this week are warning all landfills to be on the lookout for illegal low level nuclear waste.www.courier-journal.com
—-
He said the waste comes from rock and brine that's brought to the surface during oil and gas drilling. Naturally occurring radionuclides concentrate during the process. A West Virginia company that recycles the drilling further concentrates the radionuclides — and that's the waste that Hatton said made to the Blue Ridge Landfill last year in the small town of Irvine, in Estill County, Ky., he said.
It came in 47 sealed boxes, he said. They believe each box contained 25 cubic yards of materials.
State officials do not believe the drilling waste sent to the Green Valley Landfill in Greenup County near West Virginia had gone through that recycling process, so it would present less risk to landfill workers or the public, Hatton said.
—-
In spite of having do gooders so zealous they can measure the natural radioactivity of rocks and salt water that surface during fracking operations, the USA is still the premier producer of oil and gas on the earth.
—-
Researchers estimate that the United States now produces 75 percent of its crude oil supply and 90 percent of its natural gas supply domestically. By 2021, it was producing about eleven million barrels of crude oil per day and around one hundred billion cubic feet of gas per day.Aug 11, 2022
—-
The USA pioneered nuclear energy in the 1950s, and by the time of the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979, private investors had made the United States the largest producer of nuclear generated electricity on earth, which it still is today.
—
- The USA is the world's largest producer of nuclear power, accounting for more than 30% of worldwide nuclear generation of electricity.
- The country's nuclear reactors produced 843 billion kWh in 2019, about 19% of total electrical output.
- Following a 30-year period in which few new reactors were built, it is expected that two more new units will come online soon after 2020, these resulting from 16 licence applications made since mid-2007 to build 24 new nuclear reactors.
- Some states have liberalized wholesale electricity markets, which makes the financing of capital-intensive power projects difficult, and coupled with lower gas prices since 2009, have put the economic viability of some existing reactors and proposed projects in doubt.
Not everyone cheers the idea of nuclear fusion power generation at one fourth of the cost of nuclear fission generation, already the cheapest base line power generation source today.
What will become of the investors in wind power if nuclear fusion is perfected?
-
In Montana, wind energy is cost-competitive with fossil fuels, especially coal. In fact, wind energy is less much less expensive than coal for customers of NorthWestern Energy – the state’s largest utility.
The graph below comes from data from the Montana Public Service Commission and it compares the costs of various resources in NorthWestern’s portfolio. The Judith Gap wind facility is about $32.11 per megawatt-hour (or 3.1 cents per kilowatt-hour) while the coal-fired Colstrip Unit 4 is about $64.55 per megawatt-hour or (6.4 cents per kilowatt hour).
—-
The oil fields of Pennsylvania devastated the whale oil fishing fleets.
Every do gooder employed to measure radioactivity of rocks, all the oil moguls, the coal barons, the climate change researchers, and cable television conspiracy peddlers are truly threatened by the release of the genie of unlimited, waste free, safe and vastly cheaper fusion plants.
Of course there will be billions upon billions made by private investors in the new fusion plants, made possible by new technology.
The world’s first billionaire, made his fortune in Pennsylvania oil.
John D. Rockefeller - Wikipedia
They still sell Quaker State motor oil, today.
Maybe bards of the future will pen songs about abandoned gas fired turbine plants and decaying windmills, but it won’t be quite the same, you know?
I found this thread interesting, but it's hardly a debate. It's more like shadow boxing blindfolded. Many of the members here like to throw political jabs without talking about politics, which is fine as far as I'm concerned. The forum rules aren't my idea, and I'm not appealing to authority in any sense to try to defend an argument, because I wasn't making any argument in the OP. I was just saying, "Hey guys, look at this! Isn't science cool?"
I'd been meaning to respond to you though, because you bring up some interesting points.
First, you said:
Maybe I'm just naive, but I also don't live in the U.S., [or the UK] where it seems as though everything is HIGHLY politicised. I watch a lot of U.S. news because I like to stay informed and, sometimes, entertained and/or aghast — but in Canada, politics tends to be a fair bit more boring and doesn't often enter into conversation. I don't know anyone who sits around talking about the Prime Minister and his policies. I'm not in those circles anymore. You guys should realize that people on this forum might have very different Overton windows. The word "politics" doesn't have a single definition. It is possible to talk about science, technology, climate and other topics without it degenerating into a political food fight, just maybe not where you live or from inside your particular bubble.
The other thing you said:
This seems to be a comment on the way bureaucracies work? You could elaborate on this I suppose, and whether or not you're speaking from first hand experience. I saw exactly what you're describing when I was in the military. I learned how in certain areas, the exactly most incompetent individuals would get promoted, and people who were intelligent and highly competent would get passed over, or even drummed out of their job. Happens all the time. I imagine this sort of problem permeates any institution where there's a hierarchy. The rank structure in the military amplifies it. I just wanted to mention, what you're saying rings very true in my experience. The problem is, I don't know why you're saying it, or where it's coming from.
Now, WRT signature blocks: I see your Carlin, and I’ll raise you a Carlin:
“It’s all bullshit and it’s bad for ya.” This has been a slogan of mine for longer than I can remember. The problem is it's become literally impossible these days to parse the bullshit with any degree of accuracy. It surrounds us on all sides. So yeah: “Bipartisan usually means some larger-than-usual deception is being carried out” — that makes a lot of sense too. But it doesn’t follow that partisanship is preferable. It’s all bullshit after all. In the end though, SOME THINGS AREN'T BULLSHIT. Facts are facts. Energy is more or less equal to mass times the velocity of light, squared. And the implications of THAT playing out in the world may be the obverse of politics, or politics adjacent, or dependent even...but math is still math...science is still science.
The last thing I'd respond to is:
I'm not optimistic about what fusion power in the future is likely to be used for, or who is going to be in control of it, but it's just like any other genie once it's out of the bottle. Secrets don't stay secret forever. And sometimes military technology slips its bounds and ends up permeating society, like the internet. If you really think there are an "elite" who are motivated by controlling people and keeping them struggling and fearful, I don't sympathise with that worldview, because at best it's only partially true. There is nobody steering this ship. There's no cabal. Humans aren't that smart. We're all part of the rank and file.
There is nobody steering this ship. There's no cabal. Humans aren't that smart. We're all part of the rank and file.
—
As a boy, I’d sit in the barbershop and listen to old men talk about how they knew a man, who bought a brand new car. The car got 100 miles to the gallon, to their great surprise and delight.
Alas, either at the first service, or sometimes men from the automaker would come, or at worst men in black from the government would swoop in, and replace the carburetor, which had been installed by mistake. After that the car only got normal mileage.
I’d ask my father on the way home if those old men believed those fairy tales about 100 mpg carburetors themselves.
My father’s theory was it made them feel better to think it might be true, so they said it.
In the main, there is no they. They are us. We are masters of our own fate, barring accidents and misfortune.
The carburetors on the cars they drove were a miracle of scientific refinement beyond their understanding.
Today the old men tell exactly the same fairy tale, only it’s 60 mpg diesel trucks.
The men from the manufacturer or G men come and reprogram the computer.
My son asks me, if they believe that, and I reply it’s only the internet taking.
Any conspiracy large enough to work, somebody would spill the beans, you know?
—
As a boy, I’d sit in the barbershop and listen to old men talk about how they knew a man, who bought a brand new car. The car got 100 miles to the gallon, to their great surprise and delight.
Alas, either at the first service, or sometimes men from the automaker would come, or at worst men in black from the government would swoop in, and replace the carburetor, which had been installed by mistake. After that the car only got normal mileage.
I’d ask my father on the way home if those old men believed those fairy tales about 100 mpg carburetors themselves.
My father’s theory was it made them feel better to think it might be true, so they said it.
In the main, there is no they. They are us. We are masters of our own fate, barring accidents and misfortune.
The carburetors on the cars they drove were a miracle of scientific refinement beyond their understanding.
Today the old men tell exactly the same fairy tale, only it’s 60 mpg diesel trucks.
The men from the manufacturer or G men come and reprogram the computer.
My son asks me, if they believe that, and I reply it’s only the internet taking.
Any conspiracy large enough to work, somebody would spill the beans, you know?
Psalm 2 lays the beans out pretty clearly. And there have been a number of books written, detailing the plans in the words of the planners. It is simply a matter of whether one takes the time to review, and takes “them” at their word.