New Location for the 2020 Chicago Pipe Show

[sfduke]

You're not that concerned with the health of all who plan to attend the show, or you would cancel the show. It's that simple. You're more concerned with having a show than concerned about the health issues. There is nothing, let me repeat this, NOTHING, that you can do to 100% guarantee that highly at risk people run no risk of exposure to the novel coronavirus while attending the show, short of cancelling it. Well, maybe something, like providing hazmat gear to everybody. Are you offering to do that?

Considering what the planners have gone through since Pheasant Run croaked out, I can understand their reluctance. They've shed blood to make this happen. But sometimes things just aren't supposed to happen. When it rains locusts and frogs and the rivers turn to blood in Chicago, will you then take a hint?

Look at the way this outbreak is expanding, the sheer incompetence of the CDC and Azar, and ask yourselves the question, in what universe does this pandemic run its course in 6 weeks? I'm not that good at denial.

I got my eyes opened a bit this weekend while I was up in Palo Alto for a family event. My brother, who is 75, and I were semi isolated to protect us from potential exposure from other attendees. We were served first from the buffet, actually they made plates up for us to avoid possible exposure to utensils, etc. We wore surgical gloves while performing our parts of the ceremony, so as not to touch items that had been touched by others. There was hand sanitizer everywhere. Mind you, some of the people attending are doctors, including epidemiologists, who work at Stanford and are very familiar with the risks this particular virus presents and are studying it, hence the many extra measures to limit contact or proximity. Most of the invited guests chose not to come, so the turnout was about 30%, mostly school mates of the honoree.

What is likely to happen with your show is that a ton of people are going to cancel out at the very last second, leaving you holding the bag.

The CDC did put out a travel warning, advising older Americans not to travel on airplanes, which was quashed by a White House request, but has since surfaced.

For all of those who are in the at risk age group of 60 and above, who are determined to go to this show, good luck. You're going to need it.

Clarification. This was a cut-and-paste from the organizers and not my opinion.

Given the situation and lockdown including where I am until 4/7, I am confident this show will be cancelled or postponed.

 

[sablebrush52]

Easy now, Chicken Littles.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

The coronavirus is not influenza. Comparing it to a flu makes no sense. The death rate for the coronavirus is far higher than a flu by percentage of those affected. And this one doesn't act like a flu. What has got so many people concerned is that many carriers are asymptomatic. So there are a lot of carriers that go undetected. And this particular version is especially harder on older people and people with conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, and asthma. The death rate for people in their mid 60's thru earl;y 70's is estimated at 6 to 8 percent. By the late 70's it's more like 15%. Rates for the flu are far lower by percentage. And that's death rates, not seriious illnesses which run far higher.
The primary reason for sending people home and limiting contact is to attempt to deprive the coronavirus of easy access to hosts to infect, to attempt to starve it in the absence of any vaccine.

 

[mikethompson]

Jesse thank you for articulating your points better than I ever could have.

I don't understand people not taking corona virus seriously or downplaying its effects.

 

[Casual]

I don't understand people not taking corona virus seriously or downplaying its effects.

I do. We are in an information-poor period of a New Thing, with plenty of people giving it their own spin. It’s perfect for confirmation bias: whatever outcome you want, there’s a talking head expert out there telling you that you’re right. It's far easier to be wrong than right in this situation.

So, many people are playing out their temperamental risk tolerance. People disposed to be risk averse will support efforts to curb the risk at the cost of economics. But not everyone is like that; witness those that would gladly still risk gatherings and cruise ships.

We are not going to agree until the dust has settled and it’s easier to see what risk thing thing had posed. By then, we are in the Italian situation and many efforts are too late. Or the opposite.

 

[briarbuck]

Thanks a lot China. Really appreciate you unleashing this on the world.

 

[woodsroad]

One thing that stood out for me at the Chicago show is how many of the attendees were in poor health. Some is age related, but I can't help but think that heavy smoking is a multiplier. I myself am not smoking until this virus plays itself out. Jetting to a mass gathering of people in a cold, wet, windy, smoke-filled tent just isn't my idea of pragmatism right now.

 

[sablebrush52]

Jesse thank you for articulating your points better than I ever could have.

I don't understand people not taking corona virus seriously or downplaying its effects.

The Ostrich isn't the only species that sticks it's head in the sand and pretends that it if refuses to see a danger, it doesn't exist.

I do. We are in an information-poor period of a New Thing, with plenty of people giving it their own spin.

There's a huge amount of data from various sources that is largely matching up, not to mention a vast database from past pandemics that shows how they spread, which was largely ignored by politicians.

Thanks a lot China. Really appreciate you unleashing this on the world.

And there's a lot to learn from how they're handling containment, because they're actually effectively beating it back rather than offering a sales pitch. Of course, it's easier to for them do do what they're doing because they're an evil totalitarian state, but they aren't coming up with dumbass ideas like "drive through" testing, which is the latest drivel out of the CDC (can I get fries and a milkshake with that) and they don't tell you to get to a hospital where you can infect a bunch of people, including the medical staff.
They have separate facilities, called fever stations, where people go to be tested (BTW they have test kits instead of the assurance that test kits will be available "soon") and portable MRIs (where are ours? Oh yeah, China makes them) and you aren't going anywhere until the test results are back in about 4 hours. And the medical staff are wearing hazmat suits because they actually need their medical staff healthy. If you test positive you go into quarantine. You do not drive home. The rate of new cases is slowing. And that takes months, not weeks.

 

[mso489]

If the virus is a big nothing (which I doubt), it will soon be apparent in the lack of activity in hospitals and the funeral business. If at the end of April nothing is happening, we can all shrug and carry on. I hope that is what will happen, but I don't expect that.

 

[briarbuck]

If the virus is a big nothing (which I doubt), it will soon be apparent in the lack of activity in hospitals and the funeral business. If at the end of April nothing is happening, we can all shrug and carry on. I hope that is what will happen, but I don't expect that.

It's math:
US population is 325,000,000
20-40% infection is 65 million -130 million people
@ .8% (.008) fatality rate, that's a half a million people that will not make it at a 20% infection rate. At 40% it's a million people.

 

[sandollars]

It's math:
US population is 325,000,000
20-40% infection is 65 million -130 million people
@ .8% (.008) fatality rate, that's a half a million people that will not make it at a 20% infection rate. At 40% it's a million people.

Current mortality rate in the U.S. is 1.9%. How are you figuring the run rate will be less than half that? Makes no sense to me..

 

[briarbuck]

Current mortality rate in the U.S. is 1.9%. How are you figuring the run rate will be less than half that? Makes no sense to me..

It's such a small % of infections so far, the current mortality numbers aren't reliable. Most people think the number will settle just under 1%.

 

[jguss]

It's such a small % of infections so far, the current mortality numbers aren't reliable. Most people think the number will settle just under 1%.

The other answer is that most experts believe the number of cases is grossly underreported right now, here and elsewhere. So constant numerator divided by an expanded denominator equals lower rate. That’s the logic, and with a few quibbles I find it compelling.

 

[jguss]

But to restate the obvious, the numbers as is are directionally correct in several important ways: if you’re older and/or suffering from any one of numerous aggravated conditions, your risk of dying. If infected, is much much higher.

 

[chilllucky]

As relieved as I am to see information exchanged with so little name calling, it does not answer my fundamental concern: should I continue spending my weekends making traveling pipe cases for my pre-paid table at the show?

 

[hoosierpipeguy]

I don't believe much of anything I'm reading regarding this virus. The people with the best data would be in China and I sure don't trust them. I think our governments (State and Federal) are mostly doing what should be done. If people will just cooperate, not panic and act with some common sense, the country will make it through this with the minimal fatalities possible.

With that said, I have a substantial network and I still don't know anybody that has been confirmed as having this virus. I hope it stays that way.

 

[briarbuck]

As relieved as I am to see information exchanged with so little name calling, it does not answer my fundamental concern: should I continue spending my weekends making traveling pipe cases for my pre-paid table at the show?

If it's me I would continue making inventory. But the world has turned. If you're not selling seamlessly through the internet (Etsy, Ebay, website etc) it's going to be hard to access your customer base. This situation probably will go on for at least 6 months.

 

[logs]

As relieved as I am to see information exchanged with so little name calling, it does not answer my fundamental concern: should I continue spending my weekends making traveling pipe cases for my pre-paid table at the show?

I don't know who you think is going to answer this question for you. You have as much information as anyone else here. The show hasn't been cancelled if that's what you're asking. On the flip side, Chicago is in a state of near shut down and doesn't look like it's going to improve anytime soon.

 

[briarbuck]

The other answer is that most experts believe the number of cases is grossly underreported right now, here and elsewhere. So constant numerator divided by an expanded denominator equals lower rate. That’s the logic, and with a few quibbles I find it compelling.

12.5% of the US population is > 70
That's over 40 million Seniors
Eeeesh

 

[kcghost]

And when I said "This could get ugly" I was laughed at.

 

[chilllucky]

I don't know who you think is going to answer this question for you.

Winton or PorscheCigar or anyone who has called the hotel. I understand that the organizers latest statement only came out two days ago, but new things have happened in the meantime.