I think overly hopeful thinking is part of the eval of MC's statement that they plan to continue making the 40th for years.
Let's assume that this means five years and that they need 25 bales per year, so that's 125 bales in their warehouse right now. Maybe. But what if they meant that that indefinite time is 10 years; that's 250 bales, the point of which is that we really don't know what they meant. And given all the back and forth above, I wonder what the motive for that statement was.
To affirm their strength in the face of may turn out to be impending conditions that will shut them down or at best continue at half-mast?
To somehow strengthen their image with their customers for withdrawing CC? This is roughly the same product, red VA sweated and aged before tinning. Why can they get the tobacco now and into future for the 40th when they can't get it for CC?
I think MC knows what business conditions will make the 40th and CC profitable but we don't and in the middle of this MC doesn't quite know what they're going to do given that they don't know what conditions will in their future prevail.
As regards the failure to produce 5100 I can't help but think it a fallout from the anti environment. 5100 is the quintessential MC product. Affordable, quality VA. It makes no sense to say that a growing region providing enough tobacco for 500-1000? bales of tobacco for one year of 5100 suddenly can no longer do so. Maybe so, but I think more likely given current conditions MC decided to put their capital elsewhere. Whether this is in response to the anti environment is unknown, but we do know the that condition is in play.