Is The Esoterica Bubble Ending Because of China?

[logs]

I read this comment regarding the Esoterica boom on a pipe forum:

"The Chinese whales have backed off. They are looking for pre-STG Dunhill now vs Esoterica. Some of their largest proxy buyers are sitting on a lot of product that won't move or won't move at rates that make it lucrative. The bubble has technically burst, but since it was all opaque to consumers they had no way to see it was a bubble or know it's over. "

What do you think? Are current Esoterica aftermarket prices driven by the Chinese market (and is it over)?

 

[aquadoc]

i hope it is true. I like a few of the Esoterica blends but they are always gone before I can blink or they are more than I am willing to pay.

 

[seanv]

China is a big market with a lot of money. People are going crazy there for specialty scotch too I hear.

 

[hoosierpipeguy]

I watched a Chinese fellow with a thick wad of 100 dollar bills, at the Chicago show, spend some big money on around ten bags of Stonehaven and Penzance.

 

[Chasing Embers]

Esoterica tobaccos are left on B&M shelves gathering dusk while most flock to websites and their "limited" quantities. Aftermarket buyers are still stuck on the notion that online is the only place to go for the gold bags and often pay whatever scalpers are charging. China may well buy a lot of it, but not all of it. An out of state B&M called me in early Fall of this year wanting to know if I wanted any Pembroke. I got two 8 ounce bags for just under $60 and the date codes are from 2018. The bubble is a carefully crafted marketing deception.

 

[sablebrush52]

I'd like to know the source for that comment from another forum before I give it any credence. At last November's WCPS, vendors were talking about how good the Chinese market is. Clearly, Esoterica products are now flowing to China, with different names on blends than those heading to the US market. Some of these were starting to show up on eBay before they clamped down on tobacco sales a few months ago.
Smoking Pipes opened an office in China. What about that suggests that the market has gone soft? The market for ultra high grade pipes may have gone soft, but tobaccos?

 

[sablebrush52]

Esoterica tobaccos are left on B&M shelves gathering dusk while most flock to websites and their "limited" quantities. Aftermarket buyers are still stuck on the notion that online is the only place to go for the gold bags and often pay whatever scalpers are charging. China may well buy a lot of it, but not all of it. An out of state B&M called me in early Fall of this year wanting to know if I wanted any Pembroke. I got two 8 ounce bags for just under $60 and the date codes are from 2018. The bubble is a carefully crafted marketing deception.

View attachment 13894

+1

It's available if you're willing to make the effort to find it.

 

[burleyboy]

I think one reason for the high online aftermarket prices for Esoterica is, that these blends are only available in the US. Foreigners can't simply walk into the B&Ms and get their gold for retail prices.

 

[Chasing Embers]

+1

It's available if you're willing to make the effort to find it.

Exactly.?

 

[hoosierpipeguy]

Esoterica tobaccos are left on B&M shelves gathering dusk while most flock to websites and their "limited" quantities. Aftermarket buyers are still stuck on the notion that online is the only place to go for the gold bags and often pay whatever scalpers are charging. China may well buy a lot of it, but not all of it. An out of state B&M called me in early Fall of this year wanting to know if I wanted any Pembroke. I got two 8 ounce bags for just under $60 and the date codes are from 2018. The bubble is a carefully crafted marketing deception.

View attachment 13894

That is true for many Esoterica blends but not necessarily the case for Peacehaven, Stonehaven and Penzance. The after market sellers and a few people are quick on the draw calling their list of Esoterica B&M's. The best bet is if you happen to have a B&M near you that won't sell to anyone but walk in traffic, or better yet, regulars. Not many of those left.

 

[3rdguy]

Interesting timing. I can say from a few sales I have done with a buyer in China that recently he has not even responded back to me on certain Germain blends. I was only clearing out excess so no skin off my....

 

[greeneyes]

Clearly, Esoterica products are now flowing to China, with different names on blends than those heading to the US market....
Smoking Pipes opened an office in China.

Smoking Pipes and others ship directly to China. The "bubble" people are referring to is a consequence of retaliatory customs lockdowns due to Trump trade policy against China. I trade Esoterica for Germain (RDF) with a fellow from Taiwan (which is China Post), and the customs crackdown is formidable.

 

[oldgeezersmoker]

Interesting timing. I can say from a few sales I have done with a buyer in China that recently he has not even responded back to me on certain Germain blends. I was only clearing out excess so no skin off my....

A Taiwanese source tells me that there are basically three Chinese mainland based resellers who play on a large scale. I think the source quoted in the OP is correct in so far as this class of buyer is concerned, and I imagine your former buyer is in that category.

Pioestud is getting over $80 a 50 g tin for Murray’s era Dunhill. My sense is that the price on those has increased substantially over what he sold them for a year ago, but I don’t keep price charts on tobacco. Maybe those tins are going to US customers, but I doubt it.

 

[badbriar]

Yeah - unfortunately, here in Florida, there are painfully few B&M Pipe shops left. Cigars have remained somewhat popular, but pipe smoking has gone terribly soft here. Probably too many millennials!

 

[Chasing Embers]

Pioestud is getting over $80 a 50 g tin for Murray’s era Dunhill.

I trade him with Esoterica blends. Two Murray's tins for an 8 ounce bag.

 

[mingc]

Smoking Pipes and others ship directly to China. The "bubble" people are referring to is a consequence of retaliatory customs lockdowns due to Trump trade policy against China. I trade Esoterica for Germain (RDF) with a fellow from Taiwan (which is China Post), and the customs crackdown is formidable.

Taiwan has its own postal service, Chunghwa Post. It'd be rather remarkable for the postal service of mainland China, China Post, to serve Taiwan, as they are separate countries.

 

[jpberg]

I'd like to know the source for that comment from another forum before I give it any credence. At last November's WCPS, vendors were talking about how good the Chinese market is. Clearly, Esoterica products are now flowing to China, with different names on blends than those heading to the US market. Some of these were starting to show up on eBay before they clamped down on tobacco sales a few months ago.
Smoking Pipes opened an office in China. What about that suggests that the market has gone soft? The market for ultra high grade pipes may have gone soft, but tobaccos?

It’s a pretty knowledgeable and reliable source.

 

[3rdguy]

A Taiwanese source tells me that there are basically three Chinese mainland based resellers who play on a large scale. I think the source quoted in the OP is correct in so far as this class of buyer is concerned, and I imagine your former buyer is in that category.

Pioestud is getting over $80 a 50 g tin for Murray’s era Dunhill. My sense is that the price on those has increased substantially over what he sold them for a year ago, but I don’t keep price charts on tobacco. Maybe those tins are going to US customers, but I doubt it.

I agree with everything you said. He sent a letter asking for older Dunhill. Promised 6 figures if I could supply enough. I dont have any Murray era. I can say he had plenty of money, paid top dollar and never had a bad transaction. Wish he would get into Captain Black..

 

[logs]

He sent a letter asking for older Dunhill. Promised 6 figures if I could supply enough. I dont have any Murray era.

That's curious. Considering it's 20+ year old tins, how much could anyone possibly supply? Even hoarders are eventually going to smoke through their stash. At least Esoterica is a renewable source.

 

[3rdguy]

Yes, points for optimism I suppose.