Well said. It is impossible to control for all variables. My most consistent experience is SWRA dried for about 5 to 10 minutes in a Grabow. Pretty much a strike every pitch.
I’m close to 50 now and realizing it’s time to “send it” on most things. I hope you enjoy them even more now, and like recommended above use a soft flame lighter or a match.
Without a wood defect, I’d say almost zero. Ships aren’t made for the harbor, even though that’s where the safety lies…tied alongside a pier that’s never trod upon.
Fire up those pipes sir and LIVE!