The catch here is that tobacco quality keeps declining along side the number of smokers, tobacco farmers and tobacco producers.
STG closes Mac Baren and Sutliff
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You forgot the purchasing power of the US dollar. Steeply declining at that!
Actually, not that bad. The whole world has been seeing an across the board inflation, so the US dollar has been keeping up with all other forms of currency pretty good.You forgot the purchasing power of the US dollar. Steeply declining at that!
This should also make one consider, granted, there are a lot of budget friendly prices for pipes…
But, if the Artisan Carver World is going to keep plugging along, rhetorically speaking, how do people honestly think, you’re going to attract people to spend hundreds, and I mean Big Hundreds, $500-$900, and then the likes of J. Alan and Former, thousands on pipes, if there’s no decent tobacco to smoke. Like, does this balance need to exist between the two, high quality pipes, to smoke high quality tobacco in…
Thank goodness, we have not seen such a decline in quality that affects this yet, but I’m assuming many of us, as I’ve seen talks here before, worried that someone like STG ends up homogenizing to much.
P.S. Hmm, but did loosing the likes of McClelland as an example on this subject of quality, cause any to walk away? I wonder if in the past, some here heard or read stories, of some that said this is all they smoke, and now they are gone, I’m done.
Look carefully at that that graph. We've only had an 18% fluctuation, going up and down, and when you look at the ten year span, it is always fluctuating. And, this is just the EU. When we look globally, we are always fluctuating also. But, we are by no means under any special depreciation of the dollar right now.
True, but I'm not one to grade on a curve. I've got more than enough stuff to deal with on a daily basis to give even a sixteenth of a crap about what the Euro is doing! But yes, all fiat currencies are perpetually falling in value; it's merely a question of which one is falling the least. We can resume this conversation when the US follows Zimbabwe's lead and prints a $1,000,000,000,000 Federal Reserve Note!
If you think inflation is a problem here, you literally wouldn't want to live anywhere else on the planet (going by this lone metric).
Depends on what you consider dying. Market reports seems to indicate growth, but don't let that sway all of the hot air blown around here!
@Servant King My argument was merely that the dollar is not devalued enough against other currencies enough to make a huge difference when buying pipe tobaccos.
@Zeno Marx I am not sure what you're trying to say.
I think that both of you are making more of my comment than I intended.
Ultimately, for those of us that have been listening to the PM radioshow, we've been hearing Brian tell us that there really isn't billions of dollars to be made in the hobby. It is a teeny tiny microcosm of all smokers, and it could be that these centuries old companies are waking up to the fact that, it probably just isn't worth it to try to keep growing, when your customer base is so small.
When I was seriously thinking about owning a B&M, I snapped myself out of the dreams based in nostalgia with the reality that it would just be a waste of money and time. Although, I am grateful that we have people willing to risk their wealth with opening B&M's in this day in age, I also realize that these people must be fucking morons, ha ha.
@Zeno Marx I am not sure what you're trying to say.
I think that both of you are making more of my comment than I intended.
Ultimately, for those of us that have been listening to the PM radioshow, we've been hearing Brian tell us that there really isn't billions of dollars to be made in the hobby. It is a teeny tiny microcosm of all smokers, and it could be that these centuries old companies are waking up to the fact that, it probably just isn't worth it to try to keep growing, when your customer base is so small.
When I was seriously thinking about owning a B&M, I snapped myself out of the dreams based in nostalgia with the reality that it would just be a waste of money and time. Although, I am grateful that we have people willing to risk their wealth with opening B&M's in this day in age, I also realize that these people must be fucking morons, ha ha.
Where are you finding these reports? I'd be interested in seeing some.
I found some reports online…
Global Pipe Tobacco Market Report 2023
Tobacco Pipe Market Worth US$ 83 Million by 2029
I’m just the resident new guy but for what it’s worth I heard what I thought could be taken as good news today. I was at my local B&M and one of the stores sales reps was just leaving. At checkout I asked the owner his thoughts on all the STG news and he said he doesn’t think it will change things much. He almost sounded like he hadn’t even heard about the situation so I asked what about the fact that Sutliff here in the US is most likely getting shut down. His response was that him and the sales rep who had just left were having the exact same conversation. The sales rep was his Sutliff guy who said he’s heard nothing from anyone about Sutliff being closed. Hopefully this means that most of the worries about Sutliff here in the US are just hearsay and rumors.
Also in regards to global production:
Global tobacco production has hovered between 6-8 million tons over the past 40 years with peaks and valleys. The world still produces more tobacco today than it did 50+ years ago. Will this gradually decline? Possibly, but there's no steep decline present as many love to express here when you actually look at some data.
I think the more accurate statement is yes, it's a niche market and continues to be so and yes, it's a changing market as the US specifically grows less while other countries grow more. However, the data doesn't seem to suggest the industry is in any form of free fall.
Kind of shame on you for cherry picking a slight decline of 2022 to 2023 when we just had this discussion of large growth over the past 5 years. You know better!
This is flawed:
- It is a projection, without showing historical data.
- The data that is shown is for tobacco processors or sales? Not clear.
- What is clear is that includes companies that don't sell pipe tobacco, and it omits STG, the largest processor of pipe tobacco.
- This is the global market, not just the US, and it looks like it includes RYO
- This is for pipes, not tobacco.
- Pipe manufacturers list incomplete and out of date
You can’t stay in business in this field by telling people that there might be a problem with supply. Skip, owner if the Briary, laughed and told me that forums are full of morons when I said that McClelland was closing. His manager actually called Mary on speaker phone and told us all that they most definitely were NOT going out of business, even as we were all on here reading and interpreting Mike’s farewell letter.
Rule number one is that everyone in the business is full of shit. They have to be, if they want to make money.
That, and as I pointed out above, most B&M owners aren’t the smartest lightbulbs on the tree.
I know that the STG data includes acquisitions, which isn't a reflection of organic sales growth.
I also know that (unless I'm missing it) STG doesn't break out pipe tobacco sales volume or receipts.
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Tobacco farms in Kentucky alone have dwindled from over 60,000 30 years ago to only 984 now.
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