My Predictions

[K.E. Powell]

fwiw, my overall point was that the public views nicotine as addictive and cancerous. Whether or not it is actually cancerous is kind of moot, because nicotine is associated with cancer because in the public consciousness, nicotine is most closely associated with cigarettes, which are cancerous. I'm not a scientist or medical professional, so I cannot say definitively that nicotine causes cancer. Most sources that I am familiar with agree that it is addictive. Most also say, to my understanding, that nicotine by itself is not likely to be cancerous. I've also read some sources that nicotine, when isolated, can even have some potentially medically beneficial benefits. Truth be told, I'm not smart enough to know and have to rely on experts in the appropriate fields.

What I do know, however, is that tobacco as a product is closely associated with cancer and other illnesses in this country, and that has a direct correlation with the decline of its popularity. That was the topic of this thread: to answer if pipe smoking can have a resurgence in popularity. One of my points was that it would not, because being a tobacco product, it carries with it all the baggage, unfair or not, of that industry as a whole. I stand by that point.

 

[warren]

Elizabeth I was totally against tobacco and smoking when Raleigh brought it to her shore's. Didn't seem to slow the growth or demand. Life is circular.

I now of no-one who believes nicotine to be a cancer cause. The carcinogens are inert until flame is applied. Your wee cook fire in camp spreads carcinogens. The same with your smoker on the patio. Nicotine is not a cancer cause. Nicotine may reduce the body's ability to fight cancer but, it isn't a cause of the illness. That's as far as the fields of medicine and science will go, at least, as my research indicates.

Could there be a resurgence in smoking in general? I suppose that depends on how rebellious some future generation might be. Or, if there is a another world war and the cigarette companies are lucky enough to be able to include their product in the soldier's rations.

Smoking has never been a hobby/pastime/vice for the masses in spite of the efforts of Hollywood and others. But, life is circular so, who knows what the future will bring ... We can only opine and pontificate.

 

[Alejo R.]

Things I see.

There are fewer pipe factories than ever, but there are more artisans than ever.

There are fewer industrial tobacco factories than ever before, but high-quality tobaccos run out fast.
I have been buying estate pipes at flea and antique shows for over two whole decades. Sellers tell me that there are a lot of buyers these days and the pipes sell out quickly.

 

[Alejo R.]

In the 80s no one smoked cigarettes and consumption was declining and then suddenly and unexpectedly we had the Cigar Rush of the 90s.

 

[anotherbob]

I've never read nor heard of such being said. Nicotine is a drug. Carcinogens are another thing entirely and arise when tobacco is burned, just like charcoal, tires, etc.

Elizabeth I was totally against tobacco and smoking when Raleigh brought it to her shore's. Didn't seem to slow the growth or demand. Life is circular.

I now of no-one who believes nicotine to be a cancer cause. The carcinogens are inert until flame is applied. Your wee cook fire in camp spreads carcinogens. The same with your smoker on the patio. Nicotine is not a cancer cause. Nicotine may reduce the body's ability to fight cancer but, it isn't a cause of the illness. That's as far as the fields of medicine and science will go, at least, as my research indicates.

Could there be a resurgence in smoking in general? I suppose that depends on how rebellious some future generation might be. Or, if there is a another world war and the cigarette companies are lucky enough to be able to include their product in the soldier's rations.

Smoking has never been a hobby/pastime/vice for the masses in spite of the efforts of Hollywood and others. But, life is circular so, who knows what the future will bring ... We can only opine and pontificate.

yes medical nicotine is considered addictive and to cause a mild cardiac stimulation like caffeine

 

[Makembake]

There will always be tobacco for those who can afford it. Just like water in California. Gasoline, electricity and such will be available. You simply need to have the moneys to pay for such. Or, I suppose, the foresight to hoard. People can have enough money but, no one can have too much money. Especially true for those of us who burn money, watching as the smoke wafts upwards, simply because we enjoy it and/or crave the nicotine. We should all understand, smoking costs will rise so, prepare ... make more money, hoard or, find another wee vice.


Over 50%? Under 50%? Supporting numbers please.

Hi Warren, the issue of tobacco affordability has landed heavily here in my native Australia. A 50 gram tin will set you back at a minimum AUD$130. Unbelievable, I know. But, if you want an insight into what government regulation via taxation can do to tobacco, look no further than here down under. Nonetheless, I continue to enjoy smoking pipes so I, along with my other pipe brothers-in-arms are fighting the good fight!!

 

[warren]

I just pay what the clerk asks and smoke. I pick my battles carefully, smoking isn't one worth the fight. Tobacco won't go away but, government and society will force many out of the market with taxes and such. We are on the losing side in the smoking battle. We're to few to be considered of value to a politician.

 

[sablebrush52]

Given current trends it's likely pipe smoking will become far more niche than it is currently. Climate change will continue to wreak havoc on crops, growers will continue to drop growing tobacco in favor of more profitable crops, quality will continue to drop, more alternatives to getting a buzz will appear and become normalized, product will continue to become more and more expensive.
I realize that I'm being overly optimistic, but that's my nature.

 

[Andre_T]

I doubt if anyone died of lung cancer from smoking back then. They didn't live long enough.

Sadly the X-rays and MRIs they took are illegible.