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K.E. Powell

Part of the Furniture Now
Aug 20, 2022
590
2,185
37
West Virginia
As much as I want to see pipe smoking become more popular and expand, within reason, I don't see the OP's prediction coming true, at least in the sense he means.

Pipe smoking is the most niche form of tobacco usage in the United States. According to a national survey done by the NCBI, pipe smoking barely makes up an entire percentage point as the dominant means of using tobacco among tobacco users, a demographic that has broadly been shrinking for some time.


There is very little reason to see these trends change.

First, and I say this with love and respect, but pipe smokers tend to get so sentimental about their hobby that it interferes with their ability to think clearly about it. We have a tendency to romanticize the peace and calm it brings us, and think our indulgence in this hobby is in itself reflective of not just an individual, but a collective, desire to rebuff a world that demands too much of our time and effort. That may be true for us, and that general feeling may even be true for many, but that doesn't translate into business success. There's much to be enjoyed from pipe smoking, but its pleasures are not a monopoly, and similar amusements are readily marketed by the very entities that have cultivated the malaise they seek to address.

Then there is just the brass tacks of costs. Tobacco is costly. Pipe tobacco especially so. The price of entry is high. A decent brand new baccy pipe will run around $40-100. Average 2oz tin about $10. Don't forget your cleaning supplies and tools, the former of which you will need to replenish constantly. Local, state, federal, and even international guidelines make it an expensive industry to manage. And the overwhelming negative view the general public holds of the tobacco industry (which is largely justified, mind you) makes it one of the few easy targets for regular tax hikes. Pipe tobacco can be enjoyable on a budget, to be sure. But by and large, there is a reason so many pipe smokers are retirees or middle-to-upper class types: they can afford it.

Speaking of the negative view the public holds of the tobacco industry, it is a view that doesn't seem likely to change. And for good reason, as much as it pains me to say. Cigarettes and rub are little more than nicotine delivery devices in the guise of a tobacco product at this point, and the profit-driven reasons for that should be patently obvious. The next big thing, vaping, is quite literally a nicotine delivery system and little else. Given nicotine is considered a highly addictive carcinogen, that instills distrust, and justly so. Moreover, many cigs and rub users (not all!) do a fine job of presenting a bad image: a constant stream of litter, spittle, cancer, and smelling like dead ass do little to broaden appeal. I've seen countless surveys where those polled will state with conviction that they would not date a smoker. Cancer and not getting laid? That's a tough sell. I understand many of these criticisms don't apply to pipe tobacco per se, but as a tobacco product, they are lumped in this, and that is all there is to it in the public eye.

Finally, pipe tobacco has been in a long decline in use since the 1970s. There is not reason to believe that such a long and steady trend to reverse itself. There may be some minor surges in popularity that successfully manage to target certain demographics. But it will never come close to its golden age. But that's okay, I think. I like that this is niche. I want it to be healthy and the (good) purveyors of this hobby to make a decent profit. I also want this hobby to be at least somewhat affordable, relatively speaking. At least in the United States, it mostly is. Smoke 'em if you got 'em. Because there is no going back to the so-called glory days.
 

Andriko

Can't Leave
Nov 8, 2021
384
945
London
Pipe smoking will probably remain as it is now, maybe a bit more niche and a bit more 'luxury', becoming something akin to cigars. They'll try to ban cigarettes outright, and probably get pretty close before a bounce back, which I sense is on the horizon. Tobacco control seems to go in cycles, and I get the feeling we are drawing to the close of the current one.
 

olkofri

Lifer
Sep 9, 2017
8,166
14,978
The Arm of Orion
I predict that in 20 years smoking, dipping, et al will be a moot point since there'll be far more relevant things to worry about for those of us who are still around.

I also predict that by then these forums won't be around.
 

Sam Gamgee

Part of the Furniture Now
Sep 24, 2022
649
1,696
50
DFW, Texas
I don’t think tobacco will ever go away (especially cigarettes), simply because the government loves the tax dollars too much. They will go on and on about public health and safety, but at the end of the day it’s all about money.

And for what it’s worth, I hope the pipe stays a niche thing. It’s cool being part of the few.
 

Briar Lee

Lifer
Sep 4, 2021
4,960
14,334
Humansville Missouri
It's nuanced, but you're right. Life expectancy has gone up dramatically since the 1940s, however life span of humans is pretty much unchanged since written history began.

There's a misconception of everyone dying young from ancient times to today, the reality is that getting past childhood was the first major hurdle, with childhood mortality being abysmally high all the way to the late 1800s, then those who were robust enough to survive the horrible diseases that plagued humans throughout history could well expect to live past 50 years old. 70 was considered pretty old, and above that venerable, but it was not so uncommon. It really was natural selection, get past childhood diseases, be lucky enough your king was not at war with another king or die in a random act of violence/accident, women not dying in childbirth or soon after from infection and those who made it lived quite well. Even non-infectious diseases like cancer and diabetes were known all the way back to ancient Egypt and Greece. Romans noted that slaves working in asbestos mines used to die of a lung disease.

As for tobacco, I am not hopeful. I am sure it will survive in one form or another for another 30-40 years but that's it I feel.
I’ve outlived my good friend who was a medical doctor for forty years (he died of early onset Alzheimer’s) but about thirty years ago we were discussing the greatest advancement in modern medicine.

His opinion was if there had only been one drug in his bag and not two, he’d chose penicillin.

Even in modern times, at the end stage of life bacterial infections like pneumonia finish off a lot of old, dying people. But modern antibiotics alone, did more to lengthen the lifespan of mankind than any other one drug.

Inhaling any kind of smoke habitually has to be among the worst ideas man ever came up with. Puffing on tobacco smoke and chewing tobacco has been done for five centuries without grave dangers being noted.

When I was 25 I developed a severely infected wisdom tooth. My local dentist pulled it and prescribed antibiotics and painkillers, and a week later I was fully recovered.

I asked him what would have happened to me say a hundred years ago, and he smiled and said your wife would be a widow by now, without antibiotics.

Walk sometime through an old graveyard, and notice all the children and young people’s stones. They died of things that today, they’d have lived long enough to die of the miseries of old age.

I predict a thousand years from now, men will find comfort in a pipe.

Other than coffee, pipe smoking is the cheapest and least harmful bad habit a man can take up.
 
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JOHN72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2020
5,824
57,283
51
Spain - Europe
My prediction is, buy while tobacco tastes like tobacco. By the way, last Sunday, at a birthday party for my sister-in-law, one of her friends offered me some electric vape, it had a sweet bun aroma fresh out of the oven coated with caramel. I told her it was the most disgusting shit I had ever tasted. At that time I was smoking a Tuscan cigar, all the girls wanted to try my Italian rocket. PowerlessOpenHarpseal-size_restricted.gif
 
Predictions.... I got nothing

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pauls456

Starting to Get Obsessed
Aug 19, 2020
250
501
60
Tucson, Arizona
Although I appreciate the thought that goes into the longer responses, they may have inaccuracies buried within that go uncorrected.

Given our current state of understanding, the claim that nicotine is a carcinogen is far from established.

The reason that cigarettes are much more highly addictive than pipes is unknown.
 

mso489

Lifer
Feb 21, 2013
41,210
60,610
I like the relatively limited interest in pipe smoking. I don't want it to fade away, but massive interest in anything doesn't usually increase its appeal to me. People get wildly rich and outgrow their decency, and that is only the beginning of the trouble. Silicon Valley, social media, Amazon, popular music genres and so on. Sometimes a sequestered little corner of the universe is the best place to be.

The Midwest isn't a huge tourist draw, so it makes a particularly good camping vacation. You can go to supper clubs without reservations. Tourist sites have a steady stream of customers, but there are no long lines or unruly crowds.