I'm curious, as an industry insider, if you can lend any insight into the reports from tobacco trade sources that suggest that there is in fact a leaf shortage, contrary to what you're stating. Also, don't be shy about providing links to primary industry sources and data to back up your claims. A lot of stuff flying around out there.
"The
production of tobacco leaf is going down, having decreased by approximately 4% per year between 2013 and 2017."
Phillip-Morris International
"Due in large part to global tobacco control measures, global demand for tobacco leaf and cigarette consumption have been steadily decreasing for nearly a decade. Though use of other non-combustible tobacco-derived products like electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco products are increasing in popularity in some countries, they use far less leaf, with some products now using synthetic nicotine. This decline is mirrored in data on
tobacco-leaf production, which peaked in 2013 (Figure 1), suggesting that a reduction in demand leads to a
reduction in supply."
World Bank -
Global Tax Program
"Global tobacco leaf production showed an increasing trend between 2005 and 2015. However,
production declined by 7.6% overall in the last two decades."
World Health Organization
"When push comes to shove in the
current shortage, where manufacturers struggle to get their desperately needed raw materials, it sometimes is the smaller suppliers that can provide stocks."
Tobacco Asia 2023
"Buyers have been paying record prices to secure their shares of Brazil’s smaller-than-expected tobacco crop.....The combination of low volume and high quality, along with a
persisting post-Covid-19 tobacco shortage at the global level, sparked a scramble among tobacco companies in Brazil to secure their requirements."
Tobacco Reporter 2024
"
Tobacco remains a scarce commodity. Universal Leaf estimates world leaf production, excluding China, at 4.66 billion green kg in 2023, down from 4.86 billion kg in 2022. This year, the merchant expects global production to rise to 5.2 billion kg, but there are issues that might alter this forecast. ....
The undersupply of leaf tobacco remains the key global trend,” says Ivan Genov, manager of tobacco industry analysis at the International Tobacco Growers’ Association (ITGA). “Leading tobacco purchasing companies continue to report very low levels of uncommitted stock. In general, sales go very fast. In Brazil, the flue-cured Virginia (FCV) crop was almost completely sold by the end of April, which is unusual (see “
The Great Scramble,”
Tobacco Reporter, May 2024). In Zimbabwe, export figures from early May are up significantly from last year. Burley is also in short supply."
Tobacco Reporter 2024
