Looming Laws in 2021?

[balkisobrains]

There's a "substantial equivalence" clause in the deeming regulations which I believe blenders will use to get around having to go through all this nonsense. After all pipe tobacco blends are just different variations of the same thing.

I may be reading it incorrectly, but it looks like the applications & the reports would have a deadline, so after that, you would still have to deem anything new.

Presuming applying for & getting SE is a lot less expensive than deeming a new blend, it seems like the easiest thing to do if you need to put out a new blend now, would be to take a grandfathered or deemed blend, re-badge it, maybe change the cut if allowed (I couldn't figure that out), & apply for SE on the re-badged already deemed/grandfathered blend.

 

[logs]

Is there any way to find out how old a given blend is, or is there a list of blends that might be cut by the deeming regulations? I've been looking and can't find anything.

This is not a complete proper list, just my ballpark list based only on date.
- Solani is safe
- Dunhill/Peterson is safe
- Astley's is safe
- Dan Tobacco is safe
- Drucquer & Sons is safe ( I think)
- Fribourg & Treyer is safe
- J. F. Germain is safe
- Wessex is safe
- Robert McConnell is mostly safe, the Heritage series is gone
- Peterson: the classic blends are safe but the pouch aros and 3P are gone.
- GL Pease is getting decimated: the Old London, New World, and Fog City blends are gone
- C&D is also getting decimated: The Old Ones, Cellar Series, Appalachian Trail series, Hebraica series, Burley Flake series, Working Man series are gone (for starters).
- Watch City loses everything but Nor'Easter, The Churchwarden, Persian Slipper
- Iwan Reis, 3 Star blends are safe
- Mac Baren, the classics are safe. HH series is gone. Seven Seas gone.
- Sam Gawith is mostly safe. Cabbies, Golden Glow, Celtic Talisman, and Bothy Flake are gone.
- Eric Stokebye 4th Generation series is gone.
- Hearth & Home with a few exceptions it is mostly gone
- John Cotton is gone.

Note: if imports become banned then nearly all of these are gone except C&D, GLP, Iwan Ries, Watch City, Hearth and Home, and Drucquer & Sons

 

[sablebrush52]

This is not a complete proper list, just my ballpark list based only on date.
- Solani is safe
- Dunhill/Peterson is safe
- Astley's is safe
- Dan Tobacco is safe
- Drucquer & Sons is safe ( I think)
- Fribourg & Treyer is safe
- J. F. Germain is safe
- Wessex is safe
- Robert McConnell is mostly safe, the Heritage series is gone
- Peterson: the classic blends are safe but the pouch aros and 3P are gone.
- GL Pease is getting decimated: the Old London, New World, and Fog City blends are gone
- C&D is also getting decimated: The Old Ones, Cellar Series, Appalachian Trail series, Hebraica series, Burley Flake series, Working Man series are gone (for starters).
- Watch City loses everything but Nor'Easter, The Churchwarden, Persian Slipper
- Iwan Reis, 3 Star blends are safe
- Mac Baren, the classics are safe. HH series is gone. Seven Seas gone.
- Sam Gawith is mostly safe. Cabbies, Golden Glow, Celtic Talisman, and Bothy Flake are gone.
- Eric Stokebye 4th Generation series is gone.
- Hearth & Home with a few exceptions it is mostly gone
- John Cotton is gone.

Note: if imports become banned then nearly all of these are gone except C&D, GLP, Iwan Ries, Watch City, Hearth and Home, and Drucquer & Sons

Actually, Dunhill/Peterson is not safe, since the Dunhill blends were removed from the US market from 2008 to 2010 and don't qualify for being grandfathered in. The Druquer blends are not safe, as they are Pease made recreations of the old tobaccos and were not on the market for years.

 

[logs]

Actually, Dunhill/Peterson is not safe, since the Dunhill blends were removed from the US market from 2008 to 2010 and don't qualify for being grandfathered in. The Druquer blends are not safe, as they are Pease made recreations of the old tobaccos and were not on the market for years.

Oh geez... we're going to lose Dunhill again? That's terrible news. I thought the "substantial equivalence" argument would cover Peterson since it's the same blends and same manufacturer. The Druquer blends I wasn't sure about.

 

[fightnhampster]

Is there any way to find out how old a given blend is, or is there a list of blends that might be cut by the deeming regulations? I've been looking and can't find anything.

The best way is to search for it on tobaccoreviews.com. You can sort the results by "oldest" to "newest" If the oldest reviews are say from 2010 then there is a really good chance it was produced that year (and will disappear), If the oldest ones are from Feb 2007 or later then there is a good chance they will survive the regs.

 

[fightnhampster]

Oh geez... we're going to lose Dunhill again? That's terrible news. I thought the "substantial equivalence" argument would cover Peterson since it's the same blends and same manufacturer. The Druquer blends I wasn't sure about.

The issue isn't so much with the new iteration, but that is was gone from US market at the wrong time

 

[condorlover1]

Most if not all of the old Standard Tobacco of PA blends are history, so War Horse, John Cottons, Bengal Slices are history unless they change the deeming date. Murray's might survive since it has been around forever and certainly before 2007. Unless the manufacturers decide to go through all the FDA craziness I am afraid this stuff will go the way of the Dodo. On the other hand if Donald gets reelected it might push it out by a few more years. If the Democrats get in then I would expect renewed efforts to speed everything up since its 'For the children' and then we all get screwed.

 

[logs]

Unless the manufacturers decide to go through all the FDA craziness

I thought they were already doing this just to release a new blend within the last few years.

 

[sablebrush52]

I don't know what the cost is for the SE based approval, but the last estimate I saw for getting FDA approval for a blend ran about $3000 each, which is a lot less than was being bandied about in 2016. If that's an accurate figure I would expect that companies will spend the money on popular blends since they will make it back in sales, and can always add a buck or two per tin to the blend price to make that up. People might scream about the increased cost, but we'd still be paying much less than many other countries.
The tobacco industry being so secretive, I have no idea how many blends are going through the deeming process to remain on the market.

 

[dcon]

I always laugh when I hear someone state that, “the Asian market does not bitch about price“. This has NEVER been my business experience ?.

 

[condorlover1]

@dcon it depends if you are ordering fresh bats from the local market

 

[perdurabo]

Actually, Dunhill/Peterson is not safe, since the Dunhill blends were removed from the US market from 2008 to 2010 and don't qualify for being grandfathered in. The Druquer blends are not safe, as they are Pease made recreations of the old tobaccos and were not on the market for years.

Not safe unless they paid the “Taxes “for testing blah blah blah.

 

[perdurabo]

Probable:Pofits or the other way around.

I don't know what the cost is for the SE based approval, but the last estimate I saw for getting FDA approval for a blend ran about $3000 each, which is a lot less than was being bandied about in 2016. If that's an accurate figure I would expect that companies will spend the money on popular blends since they will make it back in sales, and can always add a buck or two per tin to the blend price to make that up. People might scream about the increased cost, but we'd still be paying much less than many other countries.
The tobacco industry being so secretive, I have no idea how many blends are going through the deeming process to remain on the market.

 

[mso489]

Seems like Iwan Ries would have quite a menu left since they have been around a long time and so have a number of their blends. I would think they'd have a lot of paperwork to prove it as well, as some blenders who have moved and merged may not. Likewise, I would think the old staples on the C&D menu would pre-date any deeming date, though a majority of their current blends would not. No wonder the blending brands aren't saying anything ... that might be used against them. Looking at the bright side, I'll finally get around to all the goodies I haven't opened because I kept receiving samples and trying new blends. What other small special groups will be next. I think model railroaders will be "protected" from exposure to electric fields and people who paint landscapes outdoors will be fined for lack of sunscreen. Folks who knit will have to be screened for arthritis in the knuckles and deeming dates on the dye lots of yarn will be established. Rocking chairs will have speed controls installed. Calorie limits will be established for baking at home, and chocolate chip monitors will be sent out with clipboards.

 

[condorlover1]

I could see them taxing sex next. You would have army of Sex Inspectors peering through misted up windows marking off on their clips boards $50 for every act of coitus. You could see the dialogue between them. 'The couple at apartment 1 B are having their usual Sunday morning action so thats a straight forward $50. What do we do with the fellow in 1C having a hand party? Is that sex as defined by the Sex Tax Act? I know we'll mark that down as a 1/2 and send him a bill for $25.00!'. Nothing in this world would surprise me.

 

[Worknman]

Being that my hobbies and interests seem seem to change every 10-15 years I don't want to buy more than enough to last that long.

 

[artvandelay007]

There’s going to be more dollars chasing fewer and fewer blends. That means higher prices and more out of stock. Shame about Mac Baren HH, I didn’t know that.

 

[kg.legat0]

There’s going to be more dollars chasing fewer and fewer blends. That means higher prices and more out of stock. Shame about Mac Baren HH, I didn’t know that.

I wonder if Mac Baren wouldn't pay for some of those blends to go through this whole process...Old Dark Fired is so popular itself, seems like it would be worth it...but then again I know absolutely nothing...<shrugs>

 

[diamondback]

I wonder if Mac Baren wouldn't pay for some of those blends to go through this whole process...Old Dark Fired is so popular itself, seems like it would be worth it...but then again I know absolutely nothing...<shrugs>

I totally agree! That ODF is a great smoke with a huge fan-base.

I’ve yet to try the HH Lat flake. I’m afraid I’ll like it so much I’ll need 10 lbs immediately, even though I’ve been verbally threatened by my wife already over tobacco purchases ?