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InWithBothFeet

Starting to Get Obsessed
Mar 23, 2024
273
582
Richmond, KY
Basically because people are being born.
I heard recently someplace that the US birth rate fell short of replacement rate. Don't know if that's true. It was said in support of immigration. I suppose the lifespan increasing, but the effective working life not increasing also affects population statistics... like Japan... they have a low birth rate and their population is aging.

What if you are neither growing or shrinking... the GNP just holds steady.
 

Dec 6, 2019
5,217
23,940
Dixieland
I heard recently someplace that the US birth rate fell short of replacement rate. Don't know if that's true. It was said in support of immigration. I suppose the lifespan increasing, but the effective working life not increasing also affects population statistics... like Japan... they have a low birth rate and their population is aging.

What if you are neither growing or shrinking... the GNP just holds steady.

We're right at it. Due this idea that we shouldn't dare have children.

We've been trucking and flying them in by the millions though. Hmm, makes you wonder why...

It won't hold steady unless you keep people from dying too.

Idk man... Bottom line is that the world's population can fit into Los Angeles.

You should go have babies and enjoy life, like billions of other people have done.
 

InWithBothFeet

Starting to Get Obsessed
Mar 23, 2024
273
582
Richmond, KY
I was just pondering why yearly growth was so important given everything that is required for growth is finite in nature. Eventually growth will be impossible because there will be no resources to grow with.
 
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MisterBadger

Part of the Furniture Now
Oct 6, 2024
740
5,727
Ludlow, UK
I was just pondering why yearly growth was so important given everything that is required for growth is finite in nature. Eventually growth will be impossible because there will be no resources to grow with.
Some commodities are infinite in nature, either because they are renewable (like potatoes, or tobacco), or because they are imaginary (like Gross Domestic Product worked out as monetary units, which have no intrinsic value). Posterity may laugh at us incredulously, just as we might at those prehistoric kings whose job was to ensure that the weather was seasonable and the sky didn't fall in.
 
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SmokeyJock

Can't Leave
Oct 4, 2024
360
4,232
Scotland
Some commodities are infinite in nature, either because they are renewable (like potatoes, or tobacco), or because they are imaginary (like Gross Domestic Product worked out as monetary units, which have no intrinsic value). Posterity may laugh at us incredulously, just as we might at those prehistoric kings whose job was to ensure that the weather was seasonable and the sky didn't fall in.
There is of course a limit to what the land can sustainably produce with such crops, and treating them as infinite is becoming a spiralling problem for the soil
 

MisterBadger

Part of the Furniture Now
Oct 6, 2024
740
5,727
Ludlow, UK
There is of course a limit to what the land can sustainably produce with such crops, and treating them as infinite is becoming a spiralling problem for the soil
The full horror of that, seen in Ireland, Southwest Scotland and the northwest of England, in 1847-1850, with The Great Famine: but there it originated from an economic overdependence on potatoes, compounded by ignorance of the fact that overcultivating a single over-cloned crop (mostly of a single cultivar) and taking out a resource (potatoes) and not putting anything back (in terms of fertiliser or crop rotation by way of soil nutrient replenishment), is a recipe for disaster. Fortunately compost and muck are infinite (the shit from the livestock keeps on coming, as does kitchen waste), and rotating your potatoes with aliums, legumes and brassicas in a four-year cycle, will give you infinite produce. Potato varieties, too, are infinite, if you breed them from seed, because every potato seed that matures gives tubers of a unique kind, each with more or less disease resistance, yield and nutritional quality (this is something I do in my retirement). Moral: if you put back the equivalent of what you take out, it's sustainable, and (limited) growth is also possible.
 

SmokeyJock

Can't Leave
Oct 4, 2024
360
4,232
Scotland
The full horror of that, seen in Ireland, Southwest Scotland and the northwest of England, in 1847-1850, with The Great Famine: but there it originated from an economic overdependence on potatoes, compounded by ignorance of the fact that overcultivating a single over-cloned crop (mostly of a single cultivar) and taking out a resource (potatoes) and not putting anything back (in terms of fertiliser or crop rotation by way of soil nutrient replenishment), is a recipe for disaster. Fortunately compost and muck are infinite (the shit from the livestock keeps on coming, as does kitchen waste), and rotating your potatoes with aliums, legumes and brassicas in a four-year cycle, will give you infinite produce. Potato varieties, too, are infinite, if you breed them from seed, because every potato seed that matures gives tubers of a unique kind, each with more or less disease resistance, yield and nutritional quality (this is something I do in my retirement). Moral: if you put back the equivalent of what you take out, it's sustainable, and (limited) growth is also possible.
I think the word "limited" is key here, but I do love learning about different systems of keeping soil fertile (the 3 sisters in America for example). Plants are fascinating. The Great Famine is the reason some of my ancestors ended up in Dundee!
 

HawkeyeLinus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2020
5,920
42,418
Iowa
The full horror of that, seen in Ireland, Southwest Scotland and the northwest of England, in 1847-1850, with The Great Famine: but there it originated from an economic overdependence on potatoes, compounded by ignorance of the fact that overcultivating a single over-cloned crop (mostly of a single cultivar) and taking out a resource (potatoes) and not putting anything back (in terms of fertiliser or crop rotation by way of soil nutrient replenishment), is a recipe for disaster. Fortunately compost and muck are infinite (the shit from the livestock keeps on coming, as does kitchen waste), and rotating your potatoes with aliums, legumes and brassicas in a four-year cycle, will give you infinite produce. Potato varieties, too, are infinite, if you breed them from seed, because every potato seed that matures gives tubers of a unique kind, each with more or less disease resistance, yield and nutritional quality (this is something I do in my retirement). Moral: if you put back the equivalent of what you take out, it's sustainable, and (limited) growth is also possible.
That highlights one of all sorts of little wrinkles that could have this going round and round forever. ;)

For you, whatever inputs you need for the vegetables you want to produce may seem infinite given your circumstances but in a broader discussion and look livestock aren't an infinite resource, so neither are their by-products, any crop assumes growing conditions allow a harvest (which isn't necessarily a given or even the same) and no kind of disease making its way into any aspect of the process, water being available and of course whatever would happen to the cost of any inputs as a result of any issue that affects any inputs that may cause all sorts of changes to how or whether at all you'd plant anything. I'm sure there are a couple of things I'm missing - but really nothing about that is guaranteed but of course possible given the right assumptions/conditions.

Things seem infinite and looking at some of our lifetime horizons, lol, they may for all practical purposes be "infinite", but they just aren't well, except I'm sure my love for my sweetie. 💕

And yep, famine drove at least ancestors on my father's side out of Northern Ireland to America, others, who knows why they came, but here they came. My mom's dad's parents came from Sweden and settled in a little burg called ""Swedesburg"!
 

MisterBadger

Part of the Furniture Now
Oct 6, 2024
740
5,727
Ludlow, UK
That highlights one of all sorts of little wrinkles that could have this going round and round forever. ;)

For you, whatever inputs you need for the vegetables you want to produce may seem infinite given your circumstances but in a broader discussion and look livestock aren't an infinite resource, so neither are their by-products, any crop assumes growing conditions allow a harvest (which isn't necessarily a given or even the same) and no kind of disease making its way into any aspect of the process, water being available and of course whatever would happen to the cost of any inputs as a result of any issue that affects any inputs that may cause all sorts of changes to how or whether at all you'd plant anything. I'm sure there are a couple of things I'm missing - but really nothing about that is guaranteed but of course possible given the right assumptions/conditions.

Things seem infinite and looking at some of our lifetime horizons, lol, they may for all practical purposes be "infinite", but they just aren't well, except I'm sure my love for my sweetie. 💕

And yep, famine drove at least ancestors on my father's side out of Northern Ireland to America, others, who knows why they came, but here they came. My mom's dad's parents came from Sweden and settled in a little burg called ""Swedesburg"!
Well, we could discourse infinitely on the philosophical definitions of 'infinite' :) America must have looked infinite to landless settlers a couple of centuries ago. Could we agree that it's a relative term? And I admit water - despite being an apparently infinite resource - is somewhat unpredictable in its distribution (especially lately here, it seems). The weather's gotten pretty strange this past decade or two. Anyhoo, as said earlier, woe to the politician who promises infinite economic growth and then it doesn't happen, or the statisticians prove with their speadsheets that it really is happening, but the ordinary folks don't feel any benefit from it. Perhaps we could also agree that human optimism and pessimism are both infinite, too (you've only to check out the STG/Sutcliff/MacBaren threads to see that).
 
You know... when I have questions about the universe, or serious medical conditions, cold fusion, or the environmental impact of argon harvesting on small rodents... my first thought is to ask you guys. If a bunch of guys who can't agree whether a blend is cased or not, or even what PG is... then surely you all have the answers to the big questions. puffy
 

Auxsender

Lifer
Jul 17, 2022
1,169
5,982
Nashville
Anyone have a formal background in Economics? I have a (stupid?) question.

Why is the constant growth of an economy essential? If you have a stable population, and sufficient manufacturing and resources to maintain that population, why is growth necessary? Seems like with finite resources (population, raw materials, land, manufacturing capability) that constant growth isn't something sustainable in the long term. It occurred to me that a balance of population to resource expenditure would be the ideal instead of growth.
This is like going to an economics forum to ask about the sugar/nicotine balance in tobacco leaves.
I hope you like conjecture cuz you’re gonna get tons of it here.
 

Briar Lee

Lifer
Sep 4, 2021
4,979
14,420
Humansville Missouri
Anyone have a formal background in Economics? I have a (stupid?) question.

Why is the constant growth of an economy essential? If you have a stable population, and sufficient manufacturing and resources to maintain that population, why is growth necessary? Seems like with finite resources (population, raw materials, land, manufacturing capability) that constant growth isn't something sustainable in the long term. It occurred to me that a balance of population to resource expenditure would be the ideal instead of growth.

Fifty years ago we solved that and most of the other problems of the world when I was in college in the dormitory lobby.:)

The short answer is people were a lot happier in 1928 than 1930. Likewise they were happier in 2007 than 2009. When the economic pie is getting bigger every year we all tend to have a bigger slice, and we like having more pie.

In both cases, there were bubbles of too fast growth that led to the Great Depression in 1929 and a Great Recession in 2008.

Steady growth allows a young couple to buy a home and pay for it as they get wealthier.

Then steady growth allows old men like me to be able to chat on an Internet forum about economic growth.:)

And while in theory we might be like the stable villages in medieval times when an old person died every time a baby was born, but growth is always preferred by the people.
 
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Briar Lee

Lifer
Sep 4, 2021
4,979
14,420
Humansville Missouri
I was just pondering why yearly growth was so important given everything that is required for growth is finite in nature. Eventually growth will be impossible because there will be no resources to grow with.

We discussed and solved that problem in the dormitory lobby too.:)

All thd world’s population could live in Texas in a new suburban home. There’s a lot of land in temperate climates.

Fertile farmland is so great overproduction and obesity is a serious problem. When I was in the dorm corn was used to feed cattle, and now 40% of a corn crop many times larger is used to make alcohol to burn in our cars , that get double the mileage, plus corn has steadily replaced cane sugar in the luxury foods that increase our girth.

Here’s why.

A bunch of smart kids invented personal computers fifty years ago.

The computer geeks in the dorm lobby predicted everything about on the money except one thing.

Who would have thought we’d type instead of talk on our pocket computers?.:)

Other kids are in dorm lobbies today.

They will invent things we can’t imagine.

Increases in knowledge stretch natural resources indefinitely.