Bitcoin

[karam]

I don't think the Nvidia ride is over. They will likely split the stock later this year, and AI, while in it's infancy and being touted with to an almost bullshit level, feels to me like the next evolutionary step in digitally based tech, similar to the early 1990's. It's going to be a mess for a few years and then less of a mess.

You’re right, it clearly isn’t over, and the stock split came earlier. Makes me wonder if nVidia themselves are shocked by their success and want to put some breaks on. Stock split and higher dividend send mixed messages, maybe? On the one hand the stock split will pull in retail money (more), on the other the dividends signal more maturity and less (crazy) growth.

I’ve long accepted that news get analysed and priced in by algorithms and smart people in microseconds, so as a retail bum I decided to “sleep on it”, meaning not doing anything right before or right after anything big. One can see bets being placed by the degenerates every time there’s an announcement coming up.

Stanley Druckenmiller unloaded a lot of nVidia 2 weeks ago, showing me that if the pros get scared of the success and want to lock some of the crazy gains in, retail bums like me better stay still

 

[VDL_Piper]

You’re right, it clearly isn’t over, and the stock split came earlier. Makes me wonder if nVidia themselves are shocked by their success and want to put some breaks on. Stock split and higher dividend send mixed messages, maybe? On the one hand the stock split will pull in retail money (more), on the other the dividends signal more maturity and less (crazy) growth.

I’ve long accepted that news get analysed and priced in by algorithms and smart people in microseconds, so as a retail bum I decided to “sleep on it”, meaning not doing anything right before or right after anything big. One can see bets being placed by the degenerates every time there’s an announcement coming up.

Stanley Druckenmiller unloaded a lot of nVidia 2 weeks ago, showing me that if the pros get scared of the success and want to lock some of the crazy gains in, retail bums like me better stay still

Are you a stockbroker/chartist or economist Karam?

 

[karam]

Are you a stockbroker/chartist or economist Karam?

Not at all, thought it'd be clear by saying "retail bum", I don't trade or buy single stocks, just index funds.

 

[sablebrush52]

Not at all, thought it'd be clear by saying "retail bum", I don't trade or buy single stocks, just index funds.

I do both, but mostly index funds. Splitting the stock encourages retail investors to buy. It shouldn’t work in a logical world, but investing isn’t purely logical by any stretch. That’s why there are measurements like the fear index.
I was at lunch with a friend, the other day, who bought Nvidia at $120, a lot of it, before the AI connection. The reason? His son plays video games and told him that Nvidia’s boards were the best.
So he figured, well, why not? He’s stunned, and pretty happy, with where his investment has gone.

 

[karam]

Yep, they’ve been the best gaming cards for 20 years.

What’s almost annoying in investing is that sometimes overthinking it just doesn’t work for the overthinker. The stock split could bump the overall value of whoever held it before the split by some %, totally free, totally irrelevant to valuation, just because new blood gets in. Then it becomes self-fulfilling “stock go up after split”.

Dunno if it’s just luck, or I’m just chicken about it. My colleague who bought nvidia at $22 also “starts buying stocks when they start going up, sells them when they start going down”. He has a few dozens of stocks that he’s following based on literally TikTok advice, yet his gains are crazy this year. 300 IQ or luck?

Logic says that a rising tide lifts all boats, and history says that this is luck and will eventually run out, but still

 

[jpmcwjr]

My adage: Buy high; sell low. Works wonders for humility.

 

[sablebrush52]

My colleague who bought nvidia at $22 also “starts buying stocks when they start going up, sells them when they start going down”. He has a few dozens of stocks that he’s following based on literally TikTok advice, yet his gains are crazy this year. 300 IQ or luck?

If that’s the whole of his strategy, it’s luck, and will eventually turn.
The thing about the meme stock movement was that it showed how sheer popular force could shred market “rules”. This scared the crap out of the traditional scammers, and it totally fucked over some major players, which is a good thing and needs to happen a lot more.
But then the fuel runs out, leaving those hoping for just a little more with nothing, or less than nothing.

The Wall Street adage, “Pigs get slaughtered” is a truism. Just not nearly enough pigs get slaughtered.

We’ll see how many bitcoin pigs get slaughtered.

 

[Marie]

Nominal so far..I am inclined to believe bitcoin was a DARPA initiative for unsavory reasons, yet has now become an intriguing option over other coins in the digital currency realm. The adoption curve and increasing HODL are undeniable. We are overdue for the next currency reset, especially with the fiat being a debt instrument. Saudi Arabia just turned down their agreement to continue using the dollar. BRICS is growing fast. For me, it is all looking like the roll out will become a scenario where having a little bit of everything is worth considering with different types of currency.

 

[K.E. Powell]

I always found the dismal science to be more dismal than science, and Bitcoin is just the latest hat trick in the medicine show that is macroeconomics.

I claim no expertise in the matter, so I may be off base, but just in my own lifetime, it is clear to me that the "market" has been deified and treated as a rational creator of wealth that rewards the intrepid and punishes the stupid. I can't count how many people, usually middle-class hustlers trying to reach the next rung on the ladder, believe fervently that their intelligence and determination are guarantors of future financial success. And some do succeed. Most others peter out and become embittered.

But as others pointed out, the market is driven by the same human vagaries that animate our lives, for good and ill. And no factor holds greater sway over human lives than "mere" luck.

I won't be investing in a digital currency named after an internet meme. I've been humbly putting into my 457 and am working on eventually adding other investments over time, as best my modest salary allows. Is this the best avenue to success? I don't know. But I wager most others don't either. The house always wins in the end, and I am just hoping to get out with my ass intact.

 

[sablebrush52]

I always found the dismal science to be more dismal than science, and Bitcoin is just the latest hat trick in the medicine show that is macroeconomics.

I claim no expertise in the matter, so I may be off base, but just in my own lifetime, it is clear to me that the "market" has been deified and treated as a rational creator of wealth that rewards the intrepid and punishes the stupid. I can't count how many people, usually middle-class hustlers trying to reach the next rung on the ladder, believe fervently that their intelligence and determination are guarantors of future financial success. And some do succeed. Most others peter out and become embittered.

But as others pointed out, the market is driven by the same human vagaries that animate our lives, for good and ill. And no factor holds greater sway over human lives than "mere" luck.

I won't be investing in a digital currency named after an internet meme. I've been humbly putting into my 457 and am working on eventually adding other investments over time, as best my modest salary allows. Is this the best avenue to success? I don't know. But I wager most others don't either. The house always wins in the end, and I am just hoping to get out with my ass intact.

Based on what I've heard from people I know who have achieved financial security, slow and steady wins the race. I've done that, and had a few fortunate opportunities fall my way.

 

[VDL_Piper]

Based on what I've heard from people I know who have achieved financial security, slow and steady wins the race. I've done that, and had a few fortunate opportunities fall my way.

This is so true, one has to stay the course of steady gains and the big ones look after themselves.

Another good strategy that I employ is the "second bounce" theory. After initial surge and correction the market always wants to test the high price again.

 

[VDL_Piper]

I've just had a look at the Nvidia chart and if I was a holder (and I'm not) I would have my stops up pretty close atm. Lots of gaps on the weekly chart and looks hugely oversold.

 

[warren]

Investing in anything is risky. I'm somewhat risk averse, only monies I can safely lose, so, long term investing is my thing. I'll put moneys in funds with good performance histories. I will buy stocks, blue chip mostly for the long run. My future is well funded. My grandson's will be the same should I live a few more years. I improved my knowledge as I grew and listened to the words of wisdom successful folks are willing to impart. I do the necessary "due diligence" and have been reasonably successful over the last fifty years.

Always have a plan and keep it flexible as necessary.

 

[sablebrush52]

I've just had a look at the Nvidia chart and if I was a holder (and I'm not) I would have my stops up pretty close atm. Lots of gaps on the weekly chart and looks hugely oversold.
View attachment 317894

I don't attempt to chart the market. I'm basically your boring long horizon investor. Should Nvidia stock take a dump, it may be an opportunity. But there's no telling for sure. The trading floor is littered with the wrecks of day traders. Charlie Munger makes sense to me.

 

[warren]

The trading floor is littered with the wrecks of day traders.

Indeed, I know very few day traders. Very few are willing to invest the hours for required research. There are some though, well skilled and knowledgeable, who are successful. I'm like you, a dollar at a time over many years. Seems to work. I am not rich but, I'm "comfortable."

 

[karam]

I've just had a look at the Nvidia chart and if I was a holder (and I'm not) I would have my stops up pretty close atm. Lots of gaps on the weekly chart and looks hugely oversold.
View attachment 317894

Been saying this to myself for the last 6 months after selling with a 2x profit, as it’s gone on to make another 4-5x with no sign of slowing down…

Having said that, if I remained a holder I’d too set up some stop loses at around 15%.

Edit: my worry, and what’s keeping me from going in again, is that the monumental levels of hype and greed over this company make me think the slightest hitch will send it tumbling, at least for a while, and drag a good part of my boring, long-term ETF portfolio with it. The fundamentals look rock solid, though, so it could be a buying opportunity not just for NVDA but for the whole market. Only question is whether I’d have the guts to be greedy when others are fearful (Buffett’s quote, not mine) and go big, or I’ll half-arse the opportunity.

 

[VDL_Piper]

Been saying this to myself for the last 6 months after selling with a 2x profit, as it’s gone on to make another 4-5x with no sign of slowing down…

Having said that, if I remained a holder I’d too set up some stop loses at around 15%.

Edit: my worry, and what’s keeping me from going in again, is that the monumental levels of hype and greed over this company make me think the slightest hitch will send it tumbling, at least for a while, and drag a good part of my boring, long-term ETF portfolio with it. The fundamentals look rock solid, though, so it could be a buying opportunity not just for NVDA but for the whole market. Only question is whether I’d have the guts to be greedy when others are fearful (Buffett’s quote, not mine) and go big, or I’ll half-arse the opportunity.

Chart was no where near ready over the last six months to stop and it can still do another 5 wave extension based on my count but..........it is close to exhaustion and needs to retrace to gather some liquidity before it pushes again in my opinion. Having said that I am not offering financial advice.
I'm going to dig into the business and see what's what and if I like it I will start to open a short position and see how I go, always made more money with the market going down than I have up funnily enough.

 

[Servant King]

Just the other day, I tried to think of a situation in which I'd actually acquire some. I really did pore over it in my mind...honestly it is so far down the list, perhaps at the very end. I would have to have accumulated a sufficient amount of everything else there is to have (precious metals heads the list, and it just goes on from there), and then have some spare gambling currency to put into it. I say that because, even if I had extra fiat to play with (which I don't), I'm averse to the idea of investing in anything that's in a bubble, and I'm even more averse to investing in something that has no intrinsic value. I mean, even the US dollar has some intrinsic value, albeit only as tinder or toilet paper. Cryptocurrency, stocks, and real estate are all in gigantic bubbles, and I have no interest in being counted among the suckers who have nowhere to sit when the music stops playing.

I also make a point of steering as clear as I can of anything that is dependent upon the AI infrastructure, for reasons that should be obvious. That's just my two zinc discs (they haven't made copper pennies since 1982, don't ya know?).

 

[brian64]

That's just my two zinc discs (they haven't made copper pennies since 1982, don't ya know?).

Maybe the zinc in those is worth more than two cents.

 

[VDL_Piper]

Just a quick chart update for the NVIDIA owners that are in here. As I suggested the market was exhausted and a correction has begun with the price retreating to the first gap in trading. The second can be seen right down at $14 or so and I don't think that is the correct retrace based on the count. The real area of interest is that large pink circle around the 0.618 fibonacci line in the middle which is about $51.00 but for now it has found some weak support and bounced off the gap. I'll watch for you guys and report back again. This is a weekly chart so it moves slowly.