Bitcoin

[sablebrush52]

I missed the Nvidia ride. I did grab Amazon when it got the crap beat out of it. A lot of high flying companies got beat up because the artificial high profits during covid and the subsequent drops when life returned closer to normal. Post covid drops were a good shopping opportunity. Its nice to get a great gain but I focus more on the slow and steady.

I don't think the Nvidia ride is over. They will likely split the stock later this year, and AI, while in it's infancy and being touted with to an almost bullshit level, feels to me like the next evolutionary step in digitally based tech, similar to the early 1990's. It's going to be a mess for a few years and then less of a mess.

 

[sablebrush52]

WWWFX is an option. I’d have to look again, but around 20% is in BTC. I personally think BTC will go extremely high, only because I’m in it for the long run, decades.

It’s good to watch for patterns.

Same with NRGU and NRGD with oil and COVID shut downs and wars.

Also been watching patterns in bankruptcy/fires for large utilities and how thier stock behaves. Quite a few similarities and accuracies in predictions.

Question: look at the trend in Bitcoin the last 14 years. How do you relate that to volatility? Longer yo-yo, steeper hill?

I rate it to a yo-yo on a string.

 

[sablebrush52]

I bought nVidia at 200 and sold at 400, I also predicted most of the companies who could get a COVID-19 vaccine in the market (I am a biochemist working for pharma for 10 years, so pharma is perhaps the only industry I have some ability to understand). I also was totally right in thinking Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly would explode in value, and they did, yet I still didn't buy much, and sold with good gains because it was making me nervous. That's the issue, whenever I get outsized returns from an investment I get very nervous about it, so I switched to passive index investing and am happy with that. It's all about using risk as a currency of sorts, concentration increases it along with the chance of outsized returns, diversification dilutes it. It's about risk-adjusted returns, that's the other component of long-term investing.

My proverbial rich uncle never invested until he had done the analysis on a prospective investment. When he was in profit, which he generally was, he would sell off enough to cover his initial buy, and let the rest ride. This was why he didn't lose money on stocks. Of course, owning an oil company didn't hurt, and he owned a lot of land, including a 30,000 acre working cattle ranch, complete with ghost town.

He didn't piss away money on a lot of fancy crap. No mansion, no Rolls, no jewelry, none of that. His two big indulgences were fishing, sometimes flying or riding horseback into some of the most remote areas because a particular type of fish that was in season, and art, particularly R. C. Gorman before he went completely commercial, both of which were passions of his.

 

[VDL_Piper]

Like any investment the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. This fact is what brings most investors undone. With regards to BTC though, you can buy anything and I mean anything with it and a host of the others as well. You can get a debit card attached to your crypto and just spend it like fiat currency, no tricks.

 

[BingBong]

Like any investment the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. This fact is what brings most investors undone. With regards to BTC though, you can buy anything and I mean anything with it and a host of the others as well. You can get a debit card attached to your crypto and just spend it like fiat currency, no tricks.

The modern way. I have a Glint card, same idea but with gold.

 

[karam]

I don't think the Nvidia ride is over. They will likely split the stock later this year, and AI, while in it's infancy and being touted with to an almost bullshit level, feels to me like the next evolutionary step in digitally based tech, similar to the early 1990's. It's going to be a mess for a few years and then less of a mess.

Let's see, I can't claim to understand the thinking process behind stock splits other than attracting more nickel and dime investors who don't have a broker dealing in fractional shares. My Swiss broker doesn't allow fractional shares, which I am personally happy about. In my non-expert mind fractional shares would be in an unholy mess if a broker went bust. Everything would be sorted out eventually, but it'd take time. Whole shares may be expensive but this also drives some discipline.
I agree with the idea that AI is hyped to the moon, and similar to 2000 it will take some time for the dust to settle. Then we'll know who made it. It does seem like nVidia and Microsoft have first mover advantage in this race. Tesla seems woefully behind considering Musk is a mega tech buff. I guess wasting time and money on pet projects like twitter and cybertruck takes a toll. Let's see if Google, Meta and Amazon can mobilise the mountains of data they have.

My proverbial rich uncle never invested until he had done the analysis on a prospective investment. When he was in profit, which he generally was, he would sell off enough to cover his initial buy, and let the rest ride. This was why he didn't lose money on stocks. Of course, owning an oil company didn't hurt, and he owned a lot of land, including a 30,000 acre working cattle ranch, complete with ghost town.

He didn't piss away money on a lot of fancy crap. No mansion, no Rolls, no jewelry, none of that. His two big indulgences were fishing, sometimes flying or riding horseback into some of the most remote areas because a particular type of fish that was in season, and art, particularly R. C. Gorman before he went completely commercial, both of which were passions of his.

That's very reasonable, I do it too. Having reasonably cheap tastes works wonders

 

[sablebrush52]

Let's see, I can't claim to understand the thinking process behind stock splits other than attracting more nickel and dime investors who don't have a broker dealing in fractional shares.

Well then, you DO understand the rationale behind stock splits! A large part of stock splits is to make the shares more marketable, lowering the price per share by splitting the value amongst more stocks increases the activity surrounding the stock. On occasion there a legitimate reason, such as the stock being poised for a significant change in value, or a defense against a take over, or any of a number of things that don't rationally justify a change in evaluation, or are not justified through logic. But logic and rational thinking is only part of what powers markets. Markets are largely irrational and emotional, driven a lot by greed and fear.

If markets were completely rational, Bitcoin wouldn't exist, as it offers very limited use, primarily as a very expensive, and quite profitable, scam. Even it's much touted anonymity proven to be total bullshit. I totally underestimated the basic cupidity of, vs the logical rational side of human behavior and thought that nobody would buy into this bullshit when it was first being offered. Guess I was way wrong about that and I learned from it.

So, just as Bitcoin is a thingless thing, stock splits are initially an thingless thing. But they often bring about another bump in valuations and allow companies to raise capital that they can use to grow. NVidia is positioned in a way that I'm willing to keep a few bucks in. It's not a major holding.

Like you, I'm a largely boring ETF investor, but also have a small portion of investments in a curated program. It's done consistently well for me over the past decade, in modest amounts.

 

[andrew]

Big into crypto. I've over 100% return. Most people don't understand crypto. I'm a believer in blockchain technology and don't see it going anywhere. Banks are using it, credit cards are using it. There's a lot of scams but there's a lot of scam companies on the stock market. I was in the crypto is a scam camp until January 2023 and then I started buying Solana at the advice of a computer programmer. I'm up 500% on it and earning 7.5% interest

 

[jpmcwjr]

What companies on the big board - or other major exchanges- do you deem "scam companies"? @andrew

 

[sablebrush52]

Big into crypto. I've over 100% return. Most people don't understand crypto. I'm a believer in blockchain technology and don't see it going anywhere. Banks are using it, credit cards are using it. There's a lot of scams but there's a lot of scam companies on the stock market. I was in the crypto is a scam camp until January 2023 and then I started buying Solana at the advice of a computer programmer. I'm up 500% on it and earning 7.5% interest

If some people didn't make money on it it would be gone. All scams make some people a lot of money to draw in others. I agree with you that most people don't understand Crypto. If they did they would be in something else. Boackchain technology isn't what people are investing in. They are investing in tokens.

I hope that your luck holds, but keep an eye on things, especially if there's yet another major scandal that impels regulation. Then get out, fast.

 

[sablebrush52]

What companies on the big board - or other major exchanges- do you deem "scam companies"?

Blackrock, for one. Just couldn't resist the urge to offer a Crypto ETF.

What is Crypto. It's not a currency. It's decidedly not a measure of value. It's backed by no government, no economy. It's too unstable to use as a reliable method of payment. It's not investing, it's just pure gambling.

 

[andrew]

Blackrock, for one. Just couldn't resist the urge to offer a Crypto ETF.

What is Crypto. It's not a currency. It's decidedly not a measure of value. It's backed by no government, no economy. It's too unstable to use as a reliable method of payment. It's not investing, it's just pure gambling.

Yes. It's not a currency. Pretty much everything I buy in crypto is from a computer programmer I know that understands it and how it's used, and pretty much everything he's said to buy has gone up 100%. I don't pretend to be an expert, it's like I couldn't really explain the internet, yet it's here and isn't going away. So I look at it as similar to the internet in the beginning, alot of people thought it was some fad that would go away, and yet it's changed are world. But yes there's a lot of people throwing money at stupid stuff related to Crypto.

 

[epazikas]

I started making pieces over 20 years ago and created my own brand that has grown through the years. I cant say It influences my pipe choices. Like a lot of guys, I prefer the feel of Ebonite but the ease of Acrylic. Most my pipes are acrylic stems. Skills of moutpiece work do help in fixing up estates and maintaining pipes.

My site www.Phil-tone.com

Amazing talent you have! Well done my friend! I work with heraldry but of course only on the spare time.

 

[karam]

Blackrock, for one. Just couldn't resist the urge to offer a Crypto ETF.

What is Crypto. It's not a currency. It's decidedly not a measure of value. It's backed by no government, no economy. It's too unstable to use as a reliable method of payment. It's not investing, it's just pure gambling.

1000%
The BTC spot ETFs make no sense. Ok, I lied, they make sense: they're there to fleece TERs from people who lack the ability/trust to buy BTC directly from an exchange. Owning IBIT shares means they don't even own any BTC in fact, it's foofoo squared.

Yes. It's not a currency. Pretty much everything I buy in crypto is from a computer programmer I know that understands it and how it's used, and pretty much everything he's said to buy has gone up 100%. I don't pretend to be an expert, it's like I couldn't really explain the internet, yet it's here and isn't going away. So I look at it as similar to the internet in the beginning, alot of people thought it was some fad that would go away, and yet it's changed are world. But yes there's a lot of people throwing money at stupid stuff related to Crypto.

You got lucky mate. Your friend who's a computer programmer...what does this mean? I literally got very good altcoin recommendations - as in, they've made crazy gains to date - from a handful of people who have no more skill with computers and programming than I do, which is borderline above my 70+ year old parents. It's a driven, manipulated market backed by nothing. Being in academia for 10 years and another 10 in consulting it's been driven into me that "if the value of anything cannot be explained to anyone in 30 seconds or less (the old elevator pitch) then there's something wrong with the claimed value or with the messenger". I've asked several "messengers", friends of mine I trust and know them to be clever, competent people, and they basically cannot come up with a good explanation of BTC's value, let alone the value of altcoins. It's always "this token enables online gambling and...it's great", or "AI platforms will be built on this blockchain", "smart contracts...it's great". Sorry these are not explanations.

Let's look at the elevator pitch of an actual "developer" (name changed):

"Coin X is building a decentralized machine learning platform that enables anyone to share or exchange data. X aims to create a new digital economy where people can bypass centralized aggregators by using software agents known as autonomous economic agents (AEAs). The EX token empowers users to pay for data requests on the network, vote on upcoming proposals and earn staking rewards."

Let me break it down as I'm on holiday today and have time for this:
"is building" means it's not built yet.
"enables anyone" is unclear, who is the target user? It's critical to have a target final receiver/client/user
"aims to create" means it's not created anything yet
"a new digital economy" new how?
"can bypass" don't understand this
"centralized aggregators" I know what aggregators are but would like to know who this is referring to, to put it in context as an investor. I want specific names and also need to know why do they need to be bypassed and how is this done?
"autonomous economic agents (AEAs)" had to google that one, my understanding of it is that this is similar to robo advisors
"the EX token empowers users to pay for data requests on the network etc" Still doesn't make ANY sense, which network is that, how do I access it, who else is using it, what data requests, what proposals?

See, there're too many unanswered questions. It literally says nothing about what it does and how. The common response I'm getting whenever I shred these little paragraphs is "read the whitepaper, it will explain everything". Maybe I should do that, but it's already both laborious and unconvincing.
I am not sophisticated enough to perform due diligence on any non-pharma company, and lack the cojones to put any serious money in any company I could do due diligence on, but the above is just so nebulous to be taken seriously.

Why don't crypto maxis just admit they're only in it for the money? I'd accept and respect that, all the rest of the "arguments" are pathetically weak.

 

[BingBong]

As I understand it, Coinbase is the actual bagholder for Blackrock and other BTC ETFs - one big hack there would be game over, I imagine.

Also, the standard advice is to risk no more than 1% of your assets in crypto - that applies all the way up to the big players, although that's billions to them.

 

[karam]

As I understand it, Coinbase is the actual bagholder for Blackrock and other BTC ETFs - one big hack there would be game over, I imagine.

Also, the standard advice is to risk no more than 1% of your assets in crypto - that applies all the way up to the big players, although that's billions to them.

That's exactly right, I wonder if it's possible that Blackrock and the others are insured...somehow. Would be a pretty big "Huston we have a problem" moment if Coinbase got hacked/keys lost given a big part of crypto's premise is that it's anonymous.

 

[sablebrush52]

That's exactly right, I wonder if it's possible that Blackrock and the others are insured...somehow. Would be a pretty big "Huston we have a problem" moment if Coinbase got hacked/keys lost given a big part of crypto's premise is that it's anonymous.

It almost doesn't matter. When things go pear shaped in Crypto Land, the investors get the shaft. Check out Barry Silbert, his company Genesis, and a current lawsuit where his investors, who were told that they were investing in a dollar backed Crypto platform, Gemini, and were not told that they funds were then transferred to Silbert's company which lent their bitcoin out to other companies that then collapsed. They are out a billion dollars and may never see a dime of it.

 

[condorlover1]

Do you think there would be a market for a 'Cutty Coin' as a decentralized pipe?

 

[condorlover1]

The best thing I ever came across was 'Tit Coin' that was created for the purpose of looking at porno websites! I didn't stop laughing about that one for a day or so.

 

[nathaniel]

It seems most people have no idea what money is, or why we have it. Shiny rocks and printed paper only have "value" among those who agree it has value. Anything can be money. But I'd prefer my money not be controlled by a centralized agency. I'd prefer it was deflationary rather than inflationary.