craiginthecorn wrote:
He attributed the shortage to machine harvesting which fails to discriminate between ripe, overripe, and underripe leaves. Reading between the lines, I'm guessing that fewer farms are still producing tobacco using the old, comparatively expensive methods.
The problem with this statement is that it's been that way for decades. For as long as I've been doing this, I've heard the same refrain sung over and over, yet nothing, really, has changed in the past 20 years. Machine harvesting started in the 60s, and by the 70s was widespread. The auctions, too, stopped long enough ago that I've never had the opportunity to attend one.
Crops vary from year to year, and the fact that what's currently available on the tobacco market (from previous harvests) doesn't satisfy one specific set of requirements does not mean that 1) it won't be there in the future or 2) the rest of the supply isn't good. It's very similar to wine in that respect. What's different is that winemakers and wine buyers understand vintage variations, while tobacco producers and smokers seek consistency. (That some classic blends have been morphed into something completely different from what they once were yet still retain an enthusiastic audience belies this statement, I realize, but there are always outliers to any trend.)
Believe it or not, the big cigarette companies are very particular with the leaf they buy. I've met some leaf buyers, and the knowledge and experience they bring when buying tobacco is remarkable. As a $120-billion dollar per year industry, cigarette producers drive the bus. We're fortunate, in a very real way, because without them, either pipe tobacco wouldn't exist or it would be prohibitively expensive. Still, more quality leaf is grown than they buy, and we get to take advantage of that.
As I said, the sky is not falling. At least not today, not this year. No conspiracies. No space aliens. No nefarious plots hatching behind the closed doors of secret facilities buried deep in the earth.
What will happen after the little 2021 "stay of execution" the FDA has granted is anyone's guess.