IMHO, this has been going on for quite sometime. I was fortunate enough to be able to attend the last true tobacco auction in Wilson NC some years ago. Must have been at least twelve to fifteen years ago. Even at that point, the farmers, and buyers, were talking about how drastically the industry would change. Since then, the farmers have changed how they do business. Not so much by choice, but more of an economic decision.
Part of the blame can be attributed to the Federal Government. They came in and have done everything possible to get the farmers to quit growing tobacco. They offered subsidies to farmers in order to get them to abandon tobacco for soybean, corn, etc.
Another part of the issue is the way farming has changed. I have talked to a number of farmers who grow tobacco, and many of them have said that tobacco paid for their kids college. The problem is that many of those kids do not want to be farmers and do not come back home to take over the family business. So I have a feeling that many of the tobacco farmers are the last of the line and once they retire, their farms will be sold and bye bye tobacco, hello condos.
A big part of the problem began when the auctions ended. Now farmers sell their crop direct with a pre set price. It really doesn't matter how "top of the line" their crop is. The majority will go to cigarettes and with all of the chemical enhancement that is done to them, it really doesn't matter about the tobacco itself. Growing tobacco is a labor of love effort. It is very time consuming when growing a particular type of leaf, but if your just growing a standard, run of the mill, leaf for Phillip Morris, it is much less time consuming. From a growers perspective, it makes economic sense to grow something that requires less time and effort.
I think that many of the blenders saw this coming and probably stocked up on as much quality tobacco while they could. But as time goes on, those stock piles will run out. Then the blender will have to make some hard decisions, I think that we are seeing one of those hard decisions now with 5100 and I am sure that we will see more of our favorite blends being discontinued as time goes on.
In my opinion, and it's only an opinion so take it for what it's worth, we have spent so much time fighting the anti-tobacco legislation, gaining a small victory here and there, but we failed to take a look at the bigger picture. The source. As it has been said a few times in this thread, pull out you credit card and buy, buy, buy. That's not a "sky is falling" statement, that is being said based on what has been happening for well over a decade plus in the industry.