The Future of Tobacco?

[redrooster1977]

EDIT; Fixed Capitalization in Title (See Rule 9)

I live in southeastern NC, in the heart of tobacco country........ or it used to be. Both my parents families were tobacco farmers. I've worked in it myself as a teenager. I live on the family farm now, though we've transitioned into only livestock. I'm only 40 but just in the last 20 years I've seen tobacco replaced (at least here) by cotton, sweet potatoes, and hay fields. There was always corn and soybeans of course, but the tobacco is nearly gone. There are a few farmers left still raising tobacco, but I'll quote what one told me personally, "If it weren't for China loving cigarettes so much, we'd be out of the tobacco business." Then you have all the restrictions, tariffs and mandatory "warning" labels. I was raised to think for myself, to take care of myself and my family so I don't need the corrupt "powers that be" advising me. But I suppose it's just a sign of the times. So, where do y'all think the pipe tobacco industry is heading? My guess? I think cellaring is a good idea.....

 

[mso489]

My late wife (I eventually remarried) was the granddaughter of a tobacco farmer and used to stick tobacco to hang in the tobacco barn to cure. That is she'd tie bundled leaves to a stick that fit on cross beams. Then a low fire would be kept burning for months to slowly cure the leaf. Since I arrived in N.C. in the early 70's, I've watched the tobacco industry fade. I always intended to go to one of the big tobacco auctions, part sales events and part harvest festival, but the opportunity just slipped away. Tobacco was one of the earliest cash crops in the colonies that became the U.S., starting in Virginia I believe. Now most of the tobacco is grown under contract, and the tobacco auction barns are used for flea markets, storage, or stand empty.

 

[Country Bladesmith]

 

[Gecko]

Most of the third world +China is already smoking (no new markets available) and awareness and anti smoking propaganda is spreading everywhere so demand can only go down, meaning less production will be called for and weaker market for the producers.

Draconian laws and exorbitant taxes will only get worse, more stringent and higher. Meaning more expensive and harder to come by for the consumers.

... Going to go order some more for my cellar now.

 

[warren]

Hard to be competitive after those government, "powers that be", subsidies stopped due to public pressures. Add lower prices for foreign harvests and ... well, tobacco is no longer a viable crop for most US farms. Not many complaints to be heard when the government was using my money to pay the tobacco farmers. Corn farmers and others are now enjoying moneys from "the powers that be." If it wasn't such a sad situation it'd be laughable.

You gotta be an agile farmer when relying on subsidies as they move around at the whim of the voter and the always changing tastes of the consumer.

 

[seanv]

Like the other posts say, the future is bleak for tobacco of any kind.

 

[verporchting]

We’re not at the end yet but we can see it from here.

The world is moving on without tobacco. In future it won’t be playing the role it has for several centuries.

My cellar will probably see me out of this life. If not, meh, it was good while it lasted.

 

[greeneyes]

Long ago the United States ceased being a monopoly supplier of tobacco to the world, and somewhat recently it also ceased being the supplier of quality leaf as well. For the time being the future of tobacco is safe in Africa, Brazil and India, among others.

 

[ray47]

 

[hoosierpipeguy]

If you really enjoy smoking a pipe, it seems like an easy thought process. You can assume purchasing tobacco will stay as it is moving forward and buy as you go. If that's true, you're fine. If not, you're out of luck or will be paying a significant premium on the gray market. As an alternative, you can perform a relatively simple calculation to determine how much tobacco you would need to last a reasonable or optimistic life time, and build a cellar to meet that projected need while you can. If that's true, you'll enjoy aged tobacco to your grave. If not, you'll enjoy aged tobacco to your grave.

I'll help with the math. Assume 3 grams of tobacco per bowl so you get 16 bowls per 50 gram tin. If you smoke 1 bowl per day, you'll basically go through 100 grams per month, 1.2 Kg or 2.6 pounds per year. So you'll need 26 pounds for every 10 years you hope or plan to live. It would be wise to assume some waste in your calculations, so add 10% and round up and you're at 30 lbs per every 10 years. Assume average cost per pound of around $80 and you need to spend $2,400 per year over the next three years to build up a 30 year supply. I smoke 5 or 6 bowls per day and am 63. I'm planning a supply to last until I'm 93 which is obviously optimistic but I'd rather die with tobacco left over than run out. So I need 30 lbs x 5.5 x 3 which = 495 lbs. So my objective of a 500 lb cellar is very logical, at least to me.

 

[bullet08]

In few generations, they will wonder what smoking was like. Maybe my grand kids will have few tins and my pipes to do show and tell at school.

 

[peregrinus]

A guess? Retail tobacco sales will fade to black within the next ten years.

But what do I know...

 

[BROBS]

If you really enjoy smoking a pipe, it seems like an easy thought process. You can assume purchasing tobacco will stay as it is moving forward and buy as you go. If that's true, you're fine. If not, you're out of luck or will be paying a significant premium on the gray market. As an alternative, you can perform a relatively simple calculation to determine how much tobacco you would need to last a reasonable or optimistic life time, and build a cellar to meet that projected need while you can. If that's true, you'll enjoy aged tobacco to your grave. If not, you'll enjoy aged tobacco to your grave.

I'll help with the math. Assume 3 grams of tobacco per bowl so you get 16 bowls per 50 gram tin. If you smoke 1 bowl per day, you'll basically go through 100 grams per month, 1.2 Kg or 2.6 pounds per year. So you'll need 26 pounds for every 10 years you hope or plan to live. It would be wise to assume some waste in your calculations, so add 10% and round up and you're at 30 lbs per every 10 years. Assume average cost per pound of around $80 and you need to spend $2,400 per year over the next three years to build up a 30 year supply. I smoke 5 or 6 bowls per day and am 63. I'm planning a supply to last until I'm 93 which is obviously optimistic but I'd rather die with tobacco left over than run out. So I need 30 lbs x 5.5 x 3 which = 495 lbs. So my objective of a 500 lb cellar is very logical, at least to me.

 

[BROBS]

 

[hoosierpipeguy]

@BROBS the math doesn't lie. The only thing I obviously can't project with any accuracy is my life span. Despite the mean spirited meme you posted, I'm still leaving all my Captain Black Grape to you in the event of my earlier than expected demise.

 

[BROBS]

@BROBS the math doesn't lie. The only thing I obviously can't project with any accuracy is my life span. Despite the mean spirited meme you posted, I'm still leaving all my Captain Black Grape to you in the event of my earlier than expected demise.

hahaha just your last phrase reminded me of a tobacco cellaring robot. you and 3rdguy are machines, bro.

 

[hoosierpipeguy]

hahaha just your last phrase reminded me of a tobacco cellaring robot. you and 3rdguy are machines, bro.

I thought it was quite humorous as I do a number of your posts.

 

[BROBS]

you kind of look like a terminator.. now I know why you wear the dark glasses in your pic.

 

[hoosierpipeguy]

you kind of look like a terminator.. now I know why you wear the dark glasses in your pic.

You'd do well to remember that. LOL "I'll be back."

 

[F4RM3R]

Myself being a young and new(third year) small scale mixed veggie farmer, I would hope it's going to have a similar trend as seen in the food and produce industry. With more of a focus on local and organic.

I am new to farming but have seen these trends change with more interest for specialty produce and heirloom varieties that aren't commonplace anymore. Tobacco examples would be macbarens rustica, semois or some organic cigarette companies it's a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the market, but there is an interest for sure. As with vegetables, there is a plethora of varieties that go unheard of because they aren't the most profitable crops to grow on a large commercial scale, but many of these old world crops have very unique tastes and appearances.

In my ideal fantasy world, there would be more small tobacco farmers, specializing in organic and heirloom varieties, processing on farm and selling hands of leaf at the farmers market.kinda sounds like the days of old... Haha well anyway, entirely unlikely.

Instead I hope more people will take an interest in growing and processing tobacco themselves to keep the fires burning. That's what I'm doing.