The Future of Pipe Smoking

If I'm not mistaken, nasal snuff is exempt from the tobacco taxes in the UK so if the taxes get too high there some may move to, or supplement, their tobacco use with it. I don't think there is enough demand for a pipe tobacco black market like there is for cigarettes so it could be tough getting around the taxes.

What Americans pay $10 for a pouch / tin, us Aussies pay $50. Very disappointing.....

To answer your question: I see pipe smoking, in the short and long term, as constantly morphing. Today we utilize, mostly "boutiques" for our purchases of blends and pipes. In not too many years it will be "only" boutique dealers available. And, if you smoke at the rate I do, you'll need real money to continue smoking. It's akin water in southern California, if you can afford it, you'll have it
I suspect the number of tobacco growers, processors, and wholesalers will shrink. Again some people will manage a living, just not as many. And they will be operating at a scale far smaller than today.
Many years from now, when the Third World starts to reduce cigarette smoking, the big manufacturers will sell off or dismantle their tobacco related subsidiaries and stick with food and other profit generators. Peterson and others will go the way of Dunhill, adapting or ceasing to exist. Small pipe manufacturers will shrink operations and pipe cost will most likely rise. There will be no need for factory producers and independent carvers will have a smaller customer base, logically there will be far fewer carvers. Like the "horse and buggy", there will still be a few hobbyists, nicotine will probably be dispensed in pills, cigars will be again relegated to upscale clubs and so on.
I see in my crystal ball, the smoking of tobacco becoming a hobby of the wealthy. This change will take years, I won't see it, but once Asia and Africa cease to be fertile ground for tobacco products, the demise of pipes and other tobacco related objects is a foregone conclusion. Except for a few aficionados here and there pipes will most likely become objects of collectors of historical paraphernalia.
Without the profits, the providers will wither away and, for the most part, disappear.

I think any overbearing government taxation regime that encourages the growth of a tobacco "black" (ie: "free") market is a good thing. So bring it on. The Law of Diminished Returns, as always, applies. And Western governments are guilty of massive overreach, the trajectory of which cannot be sustained (or afforded).

There are not enough pipe smokers to support a "black market" even today. We're not talking marijuana or coke here, we're talking nasty, old tobacco. Taxes are only part of the problem. As soon as the market for tobacco in the less developed countries starts to dry up the profit incentive is gone. Tobacco farmers will find other crops or build condos on the property.
As I said, smoking tobacco will become something for the rich to enjoy in clubs or their homes. Also, there are other products on the market or coming soon, tobacco will lose what little allure it still retains. Our grandchildren will look on the pipe as our children today look on the rotary phone, as a part of history to be wondered at. I suspect that if any of us living now could come back in a hundred years or so, we would feel very, very out of place.

Spain will soon catch on and realize that they are losing substantial moneys. Enjoy the situation while you can Jorge.

Spain will soon catch on and realize that they are losing substantial moneys. Enjoy the situation while you can Jorge.

Jorge, I would agree if the only goal of the tax was to gain revenue. But as you mentioned, there's a social engineering purpose: to reduce the use of tobacco. So the tax rate could easily be increased over time as revenues decrease.

I understand the Curve. But, when the market dries up there is no need for the product. And make no mistake, the market for tobacco products is rapidly shrinking, thus the profit is gone and the "Laffer Curve" no longer applies as there is nothing left to measure. No profit, no product!
Tobacco usage in the general population is a recent phenomenon in the time-line of man. It's nearly run its course and will be replaced by another, hipper vice. As you requested, my opinion is that it will go the way of the "horse and buggy." Most likely in only a couple more generations. I have no interest in debating my opinion, which you solicited. Can't be changed! It's etched in stone and it's mine alone.