Obviously, I'm not looking for specific information on actual things happening. I Just don't think I'm smarter than all the illegal entrepeneurs and most likely I'm seeing as a "business" opportunity where there isn't one. But why isn't it?
You're looking at the situation strictly as an "end user", the smoker.
If the risk out weighs the reward there is no upside for the criminal. If the jail time/fine is minimal and the profit significant ... the crooks will enter the market. Of course the market will be flooded with a ton of poor product, at prices for the masses. Then you need to factor in the legal market in other countries. Are there enough customers in other locales to justify reputable manufacturers of tobacco products to stay in production?
Take the days of "Prohibition" in the US. A lot of quality booze was available around the world. So criminals had a quality product to smuggle into the US for discerning customers. Those without the moneys for good liquor were reduced to buying illicitly produced "fire water"/bathtub gin and such.
It simply boils down to; "Is the reward worth the risk?" In New York City many feel the reward is indeed worth the risk. When I had first hand knowledge, NYPD officers I knew, cigarettes purchased on a "reservation" could be sold at a profit in the City, making any risk (low at the time) acceptable to some. Then, somewhat similar to "stepping" on pure heroin to the end user (cutting the product to make more bulk by the "retailer"), individual cigarettes could be sold for a dollar in the street. I have no recent knowledge regarding the economics of the situation today.
So to answer your question succinctly (Way to late for that!) What would you be willing to pay for a tin of an illicit blend? Organized crime and a few other, unmade, individuals would like to know.