Being in my very late 20's, this is a question that many of us young pipe smokers anxiously wonder: What is the future of pipe smoking for us? I know many of you have had long fruitful lives of smoking a pipe but what does the veteran pipe smoking community think the future of pipe tobacco will be for us who have (hopefully) 30, 40, 50 more years of this lifestyle? Will it fade out entirely? Stagnate where it currently is at? Grow exponentially? I'd love to hear your reassurances or grim predictions.
What Is the Future of Pipesmoking for Younger Generations?
- Thread starter fishmansf
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I'm also in my late 20's and often wonder what brand will go next. Stocking up while I can lol.
With legislation going in the direction that it is and the W.H.O. wanting tobacco use ended by 2030, I'd say most tobacco products will be a thing of the past by 2050.
Any kind of sensible prediction would turn this political faster than you can strike a match.
In foreign countries that have very highly taxed cigarettes (Australia for example). There is a black market that is created to supply demand.
The underworld will supply grey-zone sourced tobacco once they see a profit to be made.
The underworld will supply grey-zone sourced tobacco once they see a profit to be made.
Why you cellar and cellar deep while it’s still someone obtainable
39, here. Started pipe-smoking in college, and till now still saw myself as one of the new batch of pipe smokers. It's paradigm-shifting to realize that college students now may see me as a previous generation of pipe-smoker.
(My oldest is 17. When I start him pipe smoking in a few years, it will really sink in.)
Reminders of our mortality are good for us.
There are two questions being asked here, perhaps.
One regards the legality of tobacco.
The other regards the popularity of a particular form (pipes vs. cigars, cigarettes, etc.).
I have no unique prescience on the legal question, but the forebodings of other commenters here may be well-founded. The trajectory isn't looking good. Then again, perhaps the weirdly inverse correlation with the legalization of recreational weed will come to a head in an unexpected way? I don't know.
RE: popularity of form, cigarettes are on the way out, but cigars seem to be far, far, far more popular than pipes.
Assuming that the legal situation doesn't change, I expect that the current cigar majority / pipe minority might remain more-or-less steady.
A third possible question regards the availability of variety (in light of incessant acquisitions and foldings and such). And I'd say that the answer here depends upon the first two things. If the legal future looked good, and popularity held steady, new producers would pop up, etc. If the legal future looks bleak, and/or popularity wanes, then obviously that has implications for producers.
The common recommendation to stock up now makes sense in any case, if you can.
(My oldest is 17. When I start him pipe smoking in a few years, it will really sink in.)
Reminders of our mortality are good for us.
There are two questions being asked here, perhaps.
One regards the legality of tobacco.
The other regards the popularity of a particular form (pipes vs. cigars, cigarettes, etc.).
I have no unique prescience on the legal question, but the forebodings of other commenters here may be well-founded. The trajectory isn't looking good. Then again, perhaps the weirdly inverse correlation with the legalization of recreational weed will come to a head in an unexpected way? I don't know.
RE: popularity of form, cigarettes are on the way out, but cigars seem to be far, far, far more popular than pipes.
Assuming that the legal situation doesn't change, I expect that the current cigar majority / pipe minority might remain more-or-less steady.
A third possible question regards the availability of variety (in light of incessant acquisitions and foldings and such). And I'd say that the answer here depends upon the first two things. If the legal future looked good, and popularity held steady, new producers would pop up, etc. If the legal future looks bleak, and/or popularity wanes, then obviously that has implications for producers.
The common recommendation to stock up now makes sense in any case, if you can.
Been smoking a pipe, off and on, for 53 years.
There’s no reason to ban tobacco. It only serves to build the resolve to find ways around it, some of which have already been mentioned.
“Death by a thousand cuts” works much better. We’re already seeing the effects of that with the shrinking number of people who smoke and who smoke pipes.
That said, there will always be people interested in this arcane practice.
The commercial blends will continue to become more homogenized in order to operate around restrictions. More exotic varietals will wink out as they become less profitable. People will adjust to what’s available.
There will still be a market.
At least, that’s what the fortune says in the cookie I just opened.
There’s no reason to ban tobacco. It only serves to build the resolve to find ways around it, some of which have already been mentioned.
“Death by a thousand cuts” works much better. We’re already seeing the effects of that with the shrinking number of people who smoke and who smoke pipes.
That said, there will always be people interested in this arcane practice.
The commercial blends will continue to become more homogenized in order to operate around restrictions. More exotic varietals will wink out as they become less profitable. People will adjust to what’s available.
There will still be a market.
At least, that’s what the fortune says in the cookie I just opened.
I doubt that. I've seen dating profiles that say "no smokers" while simultaneously saying "420 friendly". There's definitely people that are fine with you smoking weed, but smoking tobacco is a hard limit.
I don't know exactly how prevalent that is though, and the aforementioned might not be "420 friendly" if you're smoking it as opposed to vaping it or something.
Regardless, tobacco consumption is increasingly viewed as a moral failure on par with admitting to it being like you say one of your favorite hobbies is kicking puppies or stealing candy from babies.
I wouldn’t be surprised if “death by a thousand cuts” got applied to boo as well. It’s a effective strategy.
True, but when a regular cigar smoker realizes that for the price of a stick he can have 20 pipe bowls, he starts thinking. Me and my most cigar aficionado friends are now smoking more bowls than cigars.
I almost said in my last post that if anything, the same treatment that tobacco got, that stuff will get in the future. But for sure, its varied legalization will definitely not do anything to help tobacco or change general social opinions of it.
There are 2 parts to this.
1) are young people interested in pipe smoking, or will it die out?
From what I've seen there are more younger people moving to cigars and pipe smoking than in years past. Cigarette smoking is going down in the most recent generation, generation Alpha, but some are going to cigars and even pipes.
This comes from the very limited information I have from our local cigar lounge owner. He says about 50% of his regular customers are under 30. Just five years ago the under 30 crowd was about 10%.
Over the last 3 years he has started to stock cheap basket pipes, MM cobs, and a limited stock of tins due to demand from the under 30s.
Also, about 50% of the under 30 year old Amish guys I know smoke pipes. Not just cobs and RYO, but briar pipes and Carter Hall, Borkum Riff, Half & Half, PA.....
This is a big change from 23 years ago when we moved to Amish country. The guys that work for me love when I share Latakia blends and they are beginning to know the difference between Burley and Virginia. Many of them start at about 15-17 years old. I have no issue giving a 16 year old kid a bowl full of Balkan Supreme.
2) Is tobacco going to be around in 20 years? That depends on a few things. Twenty years ago we would have never guessed there would be weed shops on every corner.
It depends on if the money grabbers win, or the health nuts.
Could local governments treat tobacco like weed? Maybe.
Have it grown and regulated by the government for the tax money. Weed has never been cheaper, why not tobacco?
If the health nuts win, and decide grown adults cannot choose to use tobacco, we are done for.
In my opinion.
1) are young people interested in pipe smoking, or will it die out?
From what I've seen there are more younger people moving to cigars and pipe smoking than in years past. Cigarette smoking is going down in the most recent generation, generation Alpha, but some are going to cigars and even pipes.
This comes from the very limited information I have from our local cigar lounge owner. He says about 50% of his regular customers are under 30. Just five years ago the under 30 crowd was about 10%.
Over the last 3 years he has started to stock cheap basket pipes, MM cobs, and a limited stock of tins due to demand from the under 30s.
Also, about 50% of the under 30 year old Amish guys I know smoke pipes. Not just cobs and RYO, but briar pipes and Carter Hall, Borkum Riff, Half & Half, PA.....
This is a big change from 23 years ago when we moved to Amish country. The guys that work for me love when I share Latakia blends and they are beginning to know the difference between Burley and Virginia. Many of them start at about 15-17 years old. I have no issue giving a 16 year old kid a bowl full of Balkan Supreme.
2) Is tobacco going to be around in 20 years? That depends on a few things. Twenty years ago we would have never guessed there would be weed shops on every corner.
It depends on if the money grabbers win, or the health nuts.
Could local governments treat tobacco like weed? Maybe.
Have it grown and regulated by the government for the tax money. Weed has never been cheaper, why not tobacco?
If the health nuts win, and decide grown adults cannot choose to use tobacco, we are done for.
In my opinion.
It is curious. They want to do away with tobacco. However, drugs such as cocaine, Moroccan chocolate, and heroin, enter with surreal ease.
There's a broader curiosity on my part, owing to the injustice of our health warnings. Clif High has said some interesting stuff about the effect of belief on the "event stream" which flows from the future towards us. It is his belief that this "well" has been intentionally poisoned since 1937, to shape the reality which we have been living in.
The thoughts of a single mind can only impact the event stream a tiny amount; get whole populations into the same beliefs, then the future stream is shaped - to the benefit of those who manipulate our beliefs. It answers a question I've had for 25 years, viz. sure the powerful get up to absolute crap and then lie long and loud about, but why do they care so much that we should believe them? It seems, it actually matters to their plans in the long term.
I'm happy to believe that tobacco smoke is to my benefit, it works for me. I'll stick with that and other such contrarian beliefs, so long as they work for me and have little effect on others' sovereignty.
It's an interesting world.
The thoughts of a single mind can only impact the event stream a tiny amount; get whole populations into the same beliefs, then the future stream is shaped - to the benefit of those who manipulate our beliefs. It answers a question I've had for 25 years, viz. sure the powerful get up to absolute crap and then lie long and loud about, but why do they care so much that we should believe them? It seems, it actually matters to their plans in the long term.
I'm happy to believe that tobacco smoke is to my benefit, it works for me. I'll stick with that and other such contrarian beliefs, so long as they work for me and have little effect on others' sovereignty.
It's an interesting world.
I've no idea, honestly. I do know that they will need money to keep smoking, tobacco will always be available I suspect. So, the younger generation needs to inflation proof themselves, maximize their value, their income. Prices will rise, that much I'm sure of. Availability of tobacco? Might become scarce.
Men in Black caused a rise in the purchase of pug puppies (How are they hangin' Frank?). The LOTR movies made churchwardens popular. (The most awkward pipe in the world!) Can we expect to see another fad in the next 20 years that will increase pipe sales? Sure, why not? I'm willing to bet the guys at STG have ten guys locked up in a windowless room right now tasked with that very mission.