Value of Aged Tobacco 2025

[dragonslayer]

In five or ten years from now when the tobacco industry will be gutted by…Well just about everything, taxes, state and federal law, public lynching, the world continues its following of the US, import taxes or even embargos and fewer pipe smokers. Most growers will change their crops, probably with government incentives, even worldwide. Producers will become fewer and the lines they’ll be able to keep up will diminish and disappear.

So where does this leave us? Well having put about a bowl of thought into it.
I think that tobacco, especially pipe and cigars, will become a highly value based commodity. Wines are a good example. Not only the brand, amount available, the vintage, further ageing, and the reputation of the seller play a huge role in the value of the bottle.
So here’s a scenario:

It’s 2025 and for example let’s say that SG BBF was no longer available, and hasn’t been in a couple years. I’ve run out, but I’m going to get it, what am I going to do?
Well I’ll be going to an internet site that now deals with private tobacco selling, but not a commercial one but, this one deals as a middle man for selling. You can of course develop direct buys from certain people, but they may not have it so you need a consortium location to find what you’re looking for. So these clearing houses, even to the point of auctioning will have peoples stocks up for sale. Now all the things that play in the wine business are going to come into play in a larger way.
What is it and how much of it is on the market and in demand. Reputation of the person selling it would add even more value. Just for example, because he’s my hero
1lb SG BBF aged 10 years by cigrmaster (verified) total 3 lbs. available $300 a pound. OR

Auction: 1lb SG BBF aged 10 years by cigrmaster (verified) current bid $300 by ~us~ 12 hours 45 minutes remaining.
Same thing with tins, do you see where I’m going with this, and can you see it happening?

You can bet it will be happening when marijuana is legalized…
Craig

 

[hurkman]

I can see this happening. People used to listen to records, they have died off. except for the small group of collectors (and hipsters) some are very very pricy and others you cant even give them away. I see pipe tobacco going there.

 

[philobeddoe]

Unfortunately, I think $300.00 a pound is too low, I'm guessing that $50-$60.00 a tin ( in relative dollars), will be the norm for well known tinned blends, I think that's where the market will find an equilibrium between supply and the diminishing demand. Of course, blends with a particularly strong following might fetch more, but I really don't think many people could afford to keep smoking at much more than $60.00 a tin (relative). I know there will always be wealthy hard-cores, for whom money is no object, but for the vast majority of pipers, our hobby is going to get real expensive. So stock up gentlemen!

 

[dragonslayer]

@herkman Yep I have about 400 mint condition albums from the old days including about 12 half masters including, jackson thriller, darkside of the moon etc...
@phil Well people are paying $700 to well over $1000 for pipes, and buying a lot of them. It may be the rich mans gig, just like the finest wines today. The more that time goes on the higher the price, a good long term investment that only gains value,just like wine. So I'm stocking best I can, and learning to make my own pipes this spring (when it warms up).
Craig

 

[cigrmaster]

In 2025 I can see aged tins going for 100.00 easy. Right now tins of Dunhill Nightcap from 02 are selling for 55.00 a tin. If a regular tin in 2025 is going for 40-50 then aged and out of production stuff will be going for huge jack. That tin of 02 Nightcap went for 5 bucks from Jr's back in 02. That is over a 1000% return on investment.

 

[schmitzbitz]

Unfortunately, I think $300.00 a pound is too low, I'm guessing that $50-$60.00 a tin ( in relative dollars), will be the norm for well known tinned blends, I think that's where the market will find an equilibrium between supply and the diminishing demand. Of course, blends with a particularly strong following might fetch more, but I really don't think many people could afford to keep smoking at much more than $60.00 a tin (relative). I know there will always be wealthy hard-cores, for whom money is no object, but for the vast majority of pipers, our hobby is going to get real expensive. So stock up gentlemen!

Welcome to the reality for most of the rest of the Western world. I have spent $50 on tins of current production blends, and will do so again (and even figured I was saving money, a tin of pipe tobacco lasts me more than the five days $50 of cigarettes or couple of hours $50 or cigars would).
I don't think that we will ever actually see production of tobacco cease - although we may not have access to the hundreds of blends we do today. Not only are we seeing an increased draw to the hobby thanks to popular culture, but lets face it, governments make far too much money off of us smokers to actually want to bring the industry to a halt. Never mind the billions of dollars in taxation (up here, less than 10% of the taxes collected actually go into anti-smoking campaigns), but simply the millions of dollars in industry lobbying and campaign donations the industry provides to our elected officials - and I would venture that as long as tobacco is being produced, some will find it's way into briar.

 

[cigrmaster]

I see a big black market in the future for pipe tobacco. We already have that now with cigarettes. The ATF is spending millions going after people who are trucking up cigarettes from the low tax states to NY and places like that. It is disgusting to think that now our tax dollars are being spent for this. If they just put a reasonable tax on things, none of it would be necessary. But we have to remember it is all about the kids.

 

[sparroa]

I think I am not alone in wishing for simpler times!

 

[dragonslayer]

I’m glad this thread is being looked at because this will be a reality, and you can be prepared to suffer, enjoy, profit or quit. I’m sorry but this isn’t a political post, but you can’t talk about taxation without mentioning where it comes from. The lobbyists play a big part in keeping us afloat but that will be another thing that changes as government officials at all levels, will be swayed away from contributions and those who take them will be exposed. A problem that was discussed on another thread is the educational system turning out an indoctrinated education, when two generations are involved, using the Internet to track every contribution. This will be just another thing to split the country further with yet another means of increasing revenue and an unpopular personal freedom at stake. Pipe tobacco and cigars are classified in the “have” luxury category.
The production of tobacco is not a highly profitable business to begin with, we already see many producers turning to new crops. Two things that will have happened by 2020, Marijuana will be legalized, the tax benefit and popular demand will just be too great. Growers will be offered tax incentives to change their crop to a more profitable one. Many already have the equipment, suitable, land already developed and will start growing marijuana, both for hemp based production and recreational/medical use. The country was actually covered in marijuana for hemp production with a low THC level and was only through genetically cross breeding it become more potent. There was actually a government sponsored program that hired thousands of people for years eradicating it across the nation. The number of uses of hemp is amazing and actually exceeds the chemical answers that were developed to replace it. With the green initiative becoming more powerful and hemp so cheap to produce, we have another popular incentive to change crops.
The fallout is already underway with many fields already switching crops, and the political atmosphere and budget situation will be shaking down everything they can, and luxury based items are an easy and popular target. Within a year we’re already expecting a 300% tax increase. Import taxes will become huge and being the biggest consumers, world growers will be looking for a more profitable solution. Within 5 years, scratching to find every dollar they can liquor, tobacco, gasoline and luxury items will all see tax increases implemented to avoid the inevitable raiding of the Medicare system. The political weight of the older generations vote will peak and start to decline in 10-15 years with younger indoctrinated voters hitting the polls. Remember only half of the country actually votes and most of those will be 2 motivated younger generations, fired by activists and the continuous new plans of entitlement.
So I will be stocking and really investing into something that will have a substantial return. Possibly not for me but easily passed to my children under the radar of estate taxing. This also will allow me to enjoy and make feasible my continued puffin on the pipe.
When it comes to value, think about how much people are willing to spend on a bottle of wine that gives them one night of pleasure against a tin of Escudo or a pound of BBF that would return many months of enjoyment.
Craig

 

[weezell]

But we have to remember it is all about the kids.

:crazy:

 

[irishsmoker]

God I detest the thought of teaching my son to roll a joint instead of packing a bowl of quality tobacco.

 

[dragonslayer]

Honestly if you look at the amount of superior and green products that can be made from hemp, and how easy, fast and cheap it grows compared to recreational marijuana, which has many issues and problems, and the best is grown indoors at a high cost. Hemp will be the major crop change. IMO

 

[judcole]

Honestly if you look at the amount of superior and green products that can be made from hemp, and how easy, fast and cheap it grows

Having hemp illegal is just stupid.

 

[dragonslayer]

Having hemp illegal is just stupid

Yeah I remember reading some where that the ropes made from hemp were a major factor in both WWI and II, because of their strength and low cost. Light and used for everything.

 

[cedeks]

I am totally convinced that this will happen one day soon, but not sure if this comparison is realistic . Although prices will go higher, actual value of money is decreasing. In other words, a $2 tin 30 years ago is more expensive than a $10 tin nowadays. It is becoming a general rule all over the world that almost all prices as well as income double in the period of 15-18 years,so why not tobacco or its tax.

Another thing regarding buying large amounts of tobacco for the purpose of reselling them is not a great idea (at least to my knowledge) since blocking this amount of money in tobacco is not guaranteed due to pu blic demand and legality issue (if a day comes and governments considered it as illigal stuff). Moreover, if you think it is important to keep reserve for tobacco then I would recommend blocking the money in gold or silver where increase of price and market demand is assured much more than tobacco.

 

[cedeks]

That is exactly what I meant I am totally with keeping tobacco for own use but the point I raised was regarding price difference and trading issues. For me I always keep more than my usage tobacco with me since I travel a lot and finding a place to get tobacco is very hard if you're not familiar with the place (either not available or highly priced like my last trip to UK where no tin or pouch was less than £12) . In fact now I am in a week trip and have around 600gm with me

 

[dragonslayer]

I can’t see a law passing in the US against tobacco growing or use. That was tried with alcohol and that didn’t work out well. States are enacting tough bans on where you can smoke, but can’t ban fair trade of legal products. They can only pass laws on how they can be bought and sold, and taxing.
I read the New Zealand legislation on the “Smoke free by 2025” and it’s not going to ban tobacco, in fact they are far behind in what most states here have already done. They are pushing the use of advertisements, limiting purchases to retail stores, raising taxes, drugs to help people quit smoking more affordable etc. Here is a passage from it:
**The Committee’s report is clear that “the term ‘smoke-free’ is intended to communicate an aspirational goal and not a commitment to the banning of smoking altogether by 2025”**
I don’t think the term getting rich will ever be the case but the value on return will no doubt be a profitable investment. When it comes to silver and gold, I bought gold over 10 years ago at around $300 an oz. I think it peaked around $1800. That was created by the movement of large blocks of money out of the stock market into hard commodities. I’m still holding onto mine, even though I should have sold it. Last I looked its stabilized around $1600, and for me it’s just another thing to be able to pass on to my kids under the radar of estate taxes. Gold will remain more of a worldwide currency and immune to the US dollar, mainly because it can be traded in weighted units, krugerrand, eagles etc. But that’s off the subject.
I just see it as an investment like people buy 20 cases of wine of a certain vintage, which will increase in value over time, because of demand, ageing and dwindling supply of that specific vintage. That’s been going on since… Well since they started making wine. The difference will be that production will be cut due to pressure, taxes, tariffs, and incentives. Leaving companies with little to work with and they will not survive on a minimum amount of tobacco, they will fold up, these are corporations answering to stockholders. The trade of quality aged tobacco on a global scale will be a solid investment. I don’t think anyone here is going to stash 10,000 pounds of it, but hell there’s a lot of people that have over 100 pounds now, and still buying. We are also talking about cigars, which is another tobacco product to be considered. But anyone who has had a decent sized humidor, it’s a lot of work, and things can go bad fast. Globally people as always will want the best if they can afford it and tobacco will be one of those things. But unlike wine, there will be little production, many brands disappearing and quality a bigger issue. I’d like to have a couple hundred pounds of high quality stored before it gets nuts in the next few years. I’m just slowly picking up what I can so there will be what I need to smoke. What’s left is certainly going to be worth a hell of a lot more than I paid, and fly under the estate taxes.