Hypothetical situation ... and please don't over analyze it.
Cigarettes cost $100 a pack. for whatever reason, taxes, cigarette companies go crazy.
Do you think that even 10% of cigarette smokers out there would actually take the time to roll their own cigarettes, just because it's cheaper?
How many cigarette smokers would quit? Would they quit because of the money, or would they quit because all of a sudden, they can only roll cigarettes from mail order tobacco and it's just too much bother?
I don't say this about every cigarette smoker, it certainly isn't the case for everyone. But I think for 90% of cigarette smokers, it's a quick fix nicotine addiction that they are only half-willing to actually do.
I didn't quit because of the money, even when I was spending $90 a month on cigarettes. I quit because I'd get half way through the thing, look at it, and say to myself "I don't even like this."