Tobacco sales in the near future

[rx2man]

I know there is concern among the pipe smoking community with the soon to take effect FDA regulations. I spoke with SP and they said as long as they continue to rec. shipments from the manufacturers they will continue selling. So my question to the forum members is this......are we concerned about nothing? I ask this as for those interested in cigars from the island south of Miami (ISOM's) its not a issue ordering them from Switzerland. Sure sometimes they get seized by customs. But most of the time there are no issues other than wondering if you are buying counterfeits and not always being able to know for certain. There are tobacco sellers overseas that will sell to us without the VAT and other than shipping being a little higher I dont see how there would be a lot of issues. I dont see customs doing the FDA's job for them. Maybe collecting taxes but not much else. Pipe tobacco could easily be sold from Switzerland with no taxes applied in the duty free zone, no VAT issues at all. Maybe this has been discussed but I have not seen anything recently. Just seems like when there is a will there is a way. Thoughts?

 

[pipesmokingtom]

Shhhhhh... They're watching.
My main concern is manufacturers, whose biggest market is the United States, discontinuing blends because there isn't a large enough market to justify the outrageous deeming fees.
Buying from overseas is all fine, but blends that end up not being available here probably won't be available from there either (with some exceptions of course).
Though that does raise the question - are some of these post-2007 blends going to remain in production for the overseas market and just not be available here.... hmm.

 

[rx2man]

The post 07 blends would not be available for purchase here in the U.S. Why would they not be available from purchase from overseas. Why would FDA regulations apply to a overseas market? Production continues and is shipped overseas and we just purchase it over there and ship it back. Its not a controlled substance, its not coming from a country we a have an embargo with.

 

[pipesmokingtom]

Why would they not be available from purchase from overseas

No, I understand what you're saying. The question is: Is the overseas market and the minuscule gray market that you're describing going to be enough for a manufacturer to justify continuing production on a blend? For some, the answer is obviously already "no" and they've announced discontinuation.

 

[rx2man]

And I am saying would it be a minuscule market? I sent an email to one of the U.S. pipe tobacco makers to see what their long term plans are in relation to overseas sales.

 

[pipesmokingtom]

The number of pipe smokers (already a small market) who would go online (a smaller market, still) to buy from overseas and pay the shipping costs (a small market within a small market within a small market)?
Yes. I think it would be a minuscule market. We shall see what the manufacturers think, though. I am interested to see if any blend from a US manufacturer remains available to the foreign market when it is discontinued for the US market.

 

[rx2man]

Hmmmmm, maybe the doom and gloom is not unrealistic. I buy 99% of my tobacco online. I go to the B&M when I want a smoke and its 110 outside in Phoenix. I then buy a tin since I am in their store. But the cigar market is bigger than the pipe one. Guess we will find out soon enough.

 

[cigrmaster]

I personally have no worries because I have plenty. Eventually there will be shortages due to either the FDA doing something wacky or because they will stop shipping state to state. When that happens game over. They will create a prohibition. People will be forced to buy from Europe and pay stupid money. I have predicted something bad is going to happen since 2012 and I have been buying a lot consistently since then. I had a goal of 250 pounds and reached it about a year ago. I am still buying just for trying new stuff and when I find a new one I like, I then start filling in on it. Capstan Blue Flake was a new blend so I decided I really liked it so I decided I wanted 150 tins of it. Orlik Dark Strong Kentucky was something I really enjoyed so I decided I wanted a whole bunch so I grabbed 100 tins.
There are times I see some aged tins available and I will grab those. If I have any advice to give, it would be to buy as much tobacco as you can right now and put the pipes on the back-burner.

 

[pipesmokingtom]

Yup. And we'll all be buying from you and Peck at at least 150% of your investment

 

[mso489]

If we are talking about blends that came to market only after 2007, or some alternate date named instead, there is still a deep bench of blends that have been around since 1952, 1967, 1976, etc., many of which are entirely smokeable, and a few that are undiscovered greats. So yes, we may have to get some of our recently introduced favorites from Europe for premium prices, but we'll still have many classics in the U.S. at pipe shops and online. I see considerable disappointment all around, like no Fire Storm, Six Pence, etc. etc. But some oldies will be rediscovered, or discovered for the first time. Okay, that's happy talk. But there's a particle of truth here, right? I don't think any of the Iwan Ries Three Star Blends post-date 2007.

 

[rx2man]

Leaf as well. I have 9 varieties of tobacco seed I am waiting to plant. Can't keep us from planting.

 

[pipesmokingtom]

You'll still be able to buy whole leaf as well with no issue. So that's something.
Pricing is going to get all out of whack on everything though, probably. Have to make up ground somewhere.

 

[jmatt]

I'd be shocked if smaller blenders like Smoker's Haven, Boswell, Milan, etc, who primarily (only?) distribute here in the U.S. would go to the efforts to find an overseas market, begin exporting, so we can purchase overseas, tobacco that has become, for us, just as legal as embargo Cubans. I think it could easily reach to C&D, McClelland, and even Lane (Dark Red is brand new).
From there you have the ripple effect. If Boswell can't blend and sell tobacco (just an example - maybe their stuff is all pre-2007), then can their shop still thrive? Do they close up completely? Repeat that scenario over and over. I don't expect the tobacapacalypse to happen overnight, but let's revisit this in three years.

 

[pappymac]

I'm not going to get into politics. I am a loyal United States citizen. Born in Texas to U.S. born parents. Our lineage has so far been traced back to Virginia in the mid-1600s and possibly to the lowland Scotland area. I served in the U.S. military for 21 years and 9 months. I say this with all the respect due to the U.S. government and to the FDA - SCREW YOU!.
I am voting for the presidential candidate and political party which I believe will actually listen to the people (2% chance at best) and maybe, just maybe put the brakes on rogue agencies like the FDA invading our private lives while legalizing drugs.
Sorry if I offend anyone but I don't give a damn about anyone else's feelings because they don't give a damn about mine.

 

[rx2man]

You go pappymac, it is nuts, pot is legalized all over but pipe tobacco and cigars are being even more regulated. Just does not make any sense. Would be great if the Donald would reign in the FDA, and who knows maybe. If we voted for a cigar guy it was Cruz. The Donald says he has never smoked. So......

 

[Sjmiller CPG]

I have to agree with mso489. While I am very upset with the idea that the government thinks it has to be my moral compass, I decided to hope for the best but plan for the worst. Since I am on a fixed income, stockpiling is not really an option for me. Therefore I went and found some pre 2007 blends and tried an ounce of each to see if I could find one to replace my all day blend that is post 2007. Took some time but I found some really great blends I would never have tried otherwise. Even found a blend that I like much more than my daily blend. Of course since I only got enough to give it a test, I went through what I had quickly and am now watching the calendar waiting for pay day to come around so I can get enough and it can take its place as my new all day blend.

 

[sablebrush52]

The answer is, nobody really knows.
Like a lot of people, I've been buying for the past several years, not on Harris' level, not hardly, but I'm probably good for 10 years or more. We've been expecting the shoe to drop for years, so nobody should be surprised that it has.
Based on what is already happening,, here's what Kriswell predicts:
Over the next 18 months there will be some minor changes with American made tobaccos. Lesser selling products will be more likely to get pushed aside for better sellers. That apparently was the reasoning behind the decision to stop producing the John Cotton blends. They were selling but not in huge amounts. Warhorse and Bengal Slices are selling well and may be continued. But there will be continued winnowing. Then the post 2007 blends will begin to run out as the deadline approaches, so expect to see things disappear starting in early 2018, unless the maker has plans to sell stuff overseas. China is a growing market.
The situation with foreign blenders whose blends sell here is a little more difficult to predict. They will have to register their blends with the FDA by December 31st and comply with FDA Regs. What that actually means seems to be abundantly unclear. We might see exports to the US going away much sooner. Foreign blenders can do without the US market. They may not be wiling to go through any hoops. Hellllllllllllllllooooo Asia!
Your corner tobacconist will probably stop producing shop blends, unless they are willing to pay whatever fees and set up whatever premises are needed to qualify as tobacco blend manufacturers. So long custom blends by your local tobacconist or small producers. Lane is adapting to the Regs surrounding bulk blends by pre-packaging in various weights. Expect that to get simplified as they find out what weights customers are buying.
With all that, there will still be a lot of variety available in the way of commercial blends, much more than was available when I started out.
I don't see outright prohibition being adopted as a tactic as it's a proven failure. That reality is exemplified by the move to legalize pot. The tactic will be to make smoking less desirable and more inconvenient. The focus is not on pipes and pipe tobacco. Nobody gives a damn about us. It's about smoking in general and cigarette smoking in particular. Rather than outright prohibition the process will be continued demonization of all smoking through education and social pressure. That tactic has been successful.

 

[jpmcwjr]

As our makers/blenders, retailers and e-tailers try to navigate these swirling waters, I like to suggest we make a tactical tack in our little boats (Peck and Harris, on their fine yachts, excluded!): Buy American, buy big. We have an awesome array of fine tobaccos from our fellow countrymen, and uncertainties mount over availability and price of UK, Scandinavian and German blends.

 

[anarchisthermit]

For the sake of argument. Let's say you are one of the small minority that has a local real tobacconist. Let's say you and he have come up with your own personal blend using tobaccos he has on hand. Do you really think the FDA has any desire to, or technology for policing individual transactions? Better you should invest in tinfoil hats.

 

[sablebrush52]

For the sake of argument. Let's say you are one of the small minority that has a local real tobacconist. Let's say you and he have come up with your own personal blend using tobaccos he has on hand. Do you really think the FDA has any desire to, or technology for policing individual transactions? Better you should invest in tinfoil hats.

Probably not. But small business owners tend to be cautious, and some might just not be interested in continuing as before. That said, for many years I was able to buy all the Cuban cigars I wanted through my local B&M's despite the risks they faced. That was one of the perks of being a long term regular.
But boutique brands like Kramer's, Pipes and Wilke, etc, who are not your local B&M, but also not Sutliff, may face some serious choices.