I don’t know if this is an allowed thread. It has a political tinge. If it isn’t: my apologies. If it is, I know pipe smokers are on the ball. I was just in a somewhat-friendly FB argument about the future of Japan. It’s bleak from my point of view: aging society went from 127 million people heading towards 85 million in 40 years with 40% retired. Little willingness to allow much immigration and lost political leadership. My interlocutor’s argument: robots and AI! But it led me to thinking of a bigger point: technology has already turned jobs that once had benefits, taxis and hotel jobs, into wage labor, profitable to a few (companies like Uber dressed with trendy ESG stuff). What happens when vehicles go driverless? Eventually, buildings will be computer printed as well I guess. So, this all looks bleak to me - globally. Yes, things will be cheaper. But so will be standards of living, values of life. In a country like Japan, tending towards narcissism, it’ll be mostly old people. There will be no energy in the economy or daily life. Etc. but this is a global issue. thoughts?
The Robotic Future
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At my age this is a broad subject in which I have absolutely no interest. Maybe the jobs will be in industries building and/or developing robots. Or perhaps, renting/leasing out robots for short term jobs, house painting perhaps. My grandson will have some interesting choices to make.
Was thinking about something similar. Gender issues at school. Thought of getting rid of gender altogether. All students will be addressed by their name or "student". If necessary, "student xxxx" where xxxx is last four digits of their social security number. If they don't have SS, Nxxx where N stands for "no, I don't have one". Then I remember some science fiction where people are just numbers.
What Japan and S. Korea need is a sudden population boom. I know at least in Korea, a lot of younger folks don't want to have babies. Not too sure if this is due to being selfish, in a sense, to have more fun. Or, bleak out look of the future. I know jobs are hard to get, and most people find their job miserable. Studying is hard as hell. Getting into a good college is almost impossible. So, I can see why younger people are losing hope. If you think about it, an individual happiness is the ultimate goal. Screw survival of the specie. Screw survival of the nation. Have fun and burn out.
What Japan and S. Korea need is a sudden population boom. I know at least in Korea, a lot of younger folks don't want to have babies. Not too sure if this is due to being selfish, in a sense, to have more fun. Or, bleak out look of the future. I know jobs are hard to get, and most people find their job miserable. Studying is hard as hell. Getting into a good college is almost impossible. So, I can see why younger people are losing hope. If you think about it, an individual happiness is the ultimate goal. Screw survival of the specie. Screw survival of the nation. Have fun and burn out.
As you correctly state, it is hard to imagine this thread not getting locked as it is explicitly political. My own answer to your question, for instance, would require me to state that the very phenomenon you point out--that an increasingly aging population and advances in technology renders obsolete both skilled and unskilled laborers in numbers great enough to make moot the economy of wage labor--is one borne of the inherent contradictions found within a neoliberal market economy.
But that would likely ruffle some feathers, so I'm going to just smoke some Haunted Bookshop before some rube says that my smoking tobacco and using my cheap HP laptop to complain about capitalism is evidence of some sort of hypocritical acquiescence on my part, and therefore my point is somehow rendered null as a result.
But that would likely ruffle some feathers, so I'm going to just smoke some Haunted Bookshop before some rube says that my smoking tobacco and using my cheap HP laptop to complain about capitalism is evidence of some sort of hypocritical acquiescence on my part, and therefore my point is somehow rendered null as a result.
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My intentions are good. I swear. I’m interested in all kinds of ideas people might have but there is something that makes it harder and harder to discuss differences of opinion. Not for me and probably not for many here. That’s another topi in itself. Anyway, this thread is a bad idea. I would ask the moderator to lock it up. Sorry folks!
Very benign so far. Lt's see how long it will stay that way. Perhaps ... not long at all. Or ...
You know what would be great? Every nation is so freaking rich, no one has to work for money. People will be able to do what they want out of pure desire to fulfill themselves as an individual. And robots do all the things no one wants to do. Simple concept, but seems freaking impossible to come true. I heard in Saudi Arabia, their citizens do not pay for education. It's free for the citizens. Also there are ton of incentives. But of course, religious obligations, and some old fashioned treatment of women and minorities kinda suck. I mean, last I heard, they have more foreigners than their own citizens. Why is everything compromise? Why can we have cake and eat it too? Everyone getting fat and dying early doesn't sound so bad! Feed them cake!
FFS... discussing humans and technology in the abstract is not politics. It's what grown-ups do.
I’m a little unsure about what your interlocutor’s position was. Were they saying “Robots and AI will save Japan!” or were they saying “Japan is fucked because of robots and AI!”
Either way, it seems to ignorant me that Japan is headed for very serious and complex economic and cultural problems because of the aforementioned demographic shifts.
Also, I’m not sure that technology has, on its own, turned jobs with benefits into wage jobs. That couldn’t have happened without lawmakers, lobbyists, and judges.
I don’t think cars will ever be driverless. There’s too many split second moral judgements to be made on the road. If your driverless car hits a mother with a stroller to avoid a bus full of kids, is it the passenger’s fault? Is it the fault of the corporation that built and designed the car? Is it the mother’s fault for getting in the way of the car?
I don’t think truly driverless cars will stick without major, major infrastructure changes.
Some day it will all come together.
So this board is entirely made up of grown-ups? Surely, sorry didn't mean to call you Shirley, you jest? I hope you are joshing.
It's definitely a relative term. lol
Anyone of legal smoking age is technically an adult.
Whether they act that way---or write, in the case of Interweb forums---is a separate issue.
He was actually saying that AI would save Japan, which seems ridiculous. I don’t think anyone believes that. Most of his arguments were self-defeating and he was pointing to the supposed fact that old people would rather see their towns crumble into dust than invite foreigners to live there. It’s not so cut and dry though. I lived ten years in one neighborhood with very few other foreigners except for the well-established (post-war) Korean Japanese community in Osaka. I met my wife while visiting Vietnam and went back a few times leading to our marriage and her moving here and us having the kids. Right around the time she moved here, Japan struck a “friendship” deal with Vietnam and my neighborhood suddenly had a thousand Vietnamese people in it. It was pretty funny to me how almost the month my wife moved here there were suddenly Vietnamese people everywhere. But it’s just a drop in the bucket. Japan needs many more workers. Obviously, robots aren’t going to save Japan. I think the country has few good options left at this point and young people just don’t see a good enough future for which to have kids.
The question of driverless cars is interesting. It wouldn’t surprise me if they could theoretically reduce accidents by a lot. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be used, perhaps for the reasons you cite. If they are adopted, they will put millions out of jobs. I suppose a lot of things will be much cheaper though.
With any luck I've got fewer days ahead than behind to bear witness to the dawn of an automated Masamunian dystopia.
I’m not good at these types of conversations but here is what I see
A. The world is overpopulated and could use a bit less. We can’t just keep growing it. We will run out of resources.
B. We have all these people in the world but yet we find ourselves needing to automate more and more because people don’t want to work.
C. Seems that there is a very small amount of people that are driving all the social changes that are happening and the majority is just letting it happen. These changes are hurting the way young people look at the way life works.
D. I sell robots for a living ( mainly welding) but this job force scares me. We can’t even find people to program and maintain the robots.
That’s all I have for now lol.
A. The world is overpopulated and could use a bit less. We can’t just keep growing it. We will run out of resources.
B. We have all these people in the world but yet we find ourselves needing to automate more and more because people don’t want to work.
C. Seems that there is a very small amount of people that are driving all the social changes that are happening and the majority is just letting it happen. These changes are hurting the way young people look at the way life works.
D. I sell robots for a living ( mainly welding) but this job force scares me. We can’t even find people to program and maintain the robots.
That’s all I have for now lol.
I keep hearing conflicting information regarding your first point here. I’ve read that birth rates are in a worldwide decline but I’ve also read that the planet is becoming overpopulated.
Thomas Malthus was wrong when he wrote, and he's wrong now.
97% of people currently live in countries with birth rates below replacement level.
In most European countries, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia, etc., median ages are quickly rising.
The entire world's population could fit into the state of Texas with a population density of about 27,000 per squ. mile (NYC has a population density of about 29,000 per squ. mile).
Paul Ehrlich once warned that the US would face mass starvation by 1985. Today, we're awash in weight loss clinics and there are always diet books on our best seller lists.
97% of people currently live in countries with birth rates below replacement level.
In most European countries, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia, etc., median ages are quickly rising.
The entire world's population could fit into the state of Texas with a population density of about 27,000 per squ. mile (NYC has a population density of about 29,000 per squ. mile).
Paul Ehrlich once warned that the US would face mass starvation by 1985. Today, we're awash in weight loss clinics and there are always diet books on our best seller lists.