The Future of Tobacco?

[anotherbob]

I think the way it's going pipes/cigars/snuff/snus or chaw are all going to grow. The medical profession is at the seminal point of accepting the health benefits of nicotine and seeing the facts that what makes tobacco bad is putting it in cigarettes and inhaling it. Once they more widely accept those facts then the public opinion will start turning. Especially when they notice how many old farts are still puffing away and somewhat vital. Seriously that's how I see it. And it's a pretty easy prediction to make. Medical dogma seems to have a life cycle of being over turned. It's weirdly almost always the same starts small with people basically being called cranks. Starts seeping up the chain until there are things like proposals internally at places the W.H.O. and other places and then boom everything turns. (trust me it's a very noticeable pattern and it's already at the point where the big organizations are reconsidering their stance). Seriously they're a stubborn bunch but they do change their minds when evidence starts smacking them in the face.

 

[redrooster1977]

My late wife (I eventually remarried) was the granddaughter of a tobacco farmer and used to stick tobacco to hang in the tobacco barn to cure. That is she'd tie bundled leaves to a stick that fit on cross beams. Then a low fire would be kept burning for months to slowly cure the leaf. Since I arrived in N.C. in the early 70's, I've watched the tobacco industry fade. I always intended to go to one of the big tobacco auctions, part sales events and part harvest festival, but the opportunity just slipped away. Tobacco was one of the earliest cash crops in the colonies that became the U.S., starting in Virginia I believe. Now most of the tobacco is grown under contract, and the tobacco auction barns are used for flea markets, storage, or stand empty.

My late wife (I eventually remarried) was the granddaughter of a tobacco farmer and used to stick tobacco to hang in the tobacco barn to cure. That is she'd tie bundled leaves to a stick that fit on cross beams. Then a low fire would be kept burning for months to slowly cure the leaf. Since I arrived in N.C. in the early 70's, I've watched the tobacco industry fade. I always intended to go to one of the big tobacco auctions, part sales events and part harvest festival, but the opportunity just slipped away. Tobacco was one of the earliest cash crops in the colonies that became the U.S., starting in Virginia I believe. Now most of the tobacco is grown under contract, and the tobacco auction barns are used for flea markets, storage, or stand empty.

My late wife (I eventually remarried) was the granddaughter of a tobacco farmer and used to stick tobacco to hang in the tobacco barn to cure. That is she'd tie bundled leaves to a stick that fit on cross beams. Then a low fire would be kept burning for months to slowly cure the leaf. Since I arrived in N.C. in the early 70's, I've watched the tobacco industry fade. I always intended to go to one of the big tobacco auctions, part sales events and part harvest festival, but the opportunity just slipped away. Tobacco was one of the earliest cash crops in the colonies that became the U.S., starting in Virginia I believe. Now most of the tobacco is grown under contract, and the tobacco auction barns are used for flea markets, storage, or stand empty.

I never hung any tobacco in any of the older tier style barns, but I remember well playing in them. We had several on our property and my younger brother and I were always playing in them. I can't tell you what 30 years of curing tobacco imbues in a wooden stucture.... what it smelled like.... it was amazing....

 

[warren]

anotherbob: You are equating medical grade nicotine to nicotine absorbed via smoking and such? Really?

 

[condorlover1]

I remember that Woody Allen film were he wakes up in the future and is offered a cigar or something since tobacco is the most healthy substance known to man in the future!

 

[Zartoon]

EDIT; Fixed Capitalization in Title (See Rule 9)

I live in southeastern NC, in the heart of tobacco country........ or it used to be. Both my parents families were tobacco farmers. I've worked in it myself as a teenager. I live on the family farm now, though we've transitioned into only livestock. I'm only 40 but just in the last 20 years I've seen tobacco replaced (at least here) by cotton, sweet potatoes, and hay fields. There was always corn and soybeans of course, but the tobacco is nearly gone. There are a few farmers left still raising tobacco, but I'll quote what one told me personally, "If it weren't for China loving cigarettes so much, we'd be out of the tobacco business." Then you have all the restrictions, tariffs and mandatory "warning" labels. I was raised to think for myself, to take care of myself and my family so I don't need the corrupt "powers that be" advising me. But I suppose it's just a sign of the times. So, where do y'all think the pipe tobacco industry is heading? My guess? I think cellaring is a good idea.....

It will be a thing if the past within our lifetime. In all honesty, it’s not just tobacco. They are going after soda now and who knows what’s next.

 

[smudgersmissingleg]

Lots of youngsters vape now whereas in the past many of them would've been smokers. I think a combination of higher and higher taxes on tobacco and the fact you can't smoke anywhere anymore will will see the downward trend continue, in the west anyway.

When I first started smoking cigarettes in 1988 you could puff away most places. Trains, buses, hotels, pubs, cafés and restaurants, the list was endless.

I still think there'll always be a reasonable amount of people smoking though. Whether cigarettes, pipes or cigars, it's just too pleasurable of an experience.

I did try vaping about 6 years ago but it wasn't for me.
I like analogue smoking.

 

[mso489]

Pipe smoking could (I'm not saying it will) kick around the fringes as an oddity like snuff, which was a big deal in the 1700's and less in the 1800's, and now is mostly a novelty, no offense to our snuff users. Snuff boxes, which were high luxury items in earlier centuries, are now museum pieces, beautifully crafted and priced incredibly high (bejeweled and in rare metals) for an item that is essentially no longer used.

 

[pantsBoots]

Myself being a young and new(third year) small scale mixed veggie farmer, I would hope it's going to have a similar trend as seen in the food and produce industry. With more of a focus on local and organic.

I am new to farming but have seen these trends change with more interest for specialty produce and heirloom varieties that aren't commonplace anymore. Tobacco examples would be macbarens rustica, semois or some organic cigarette companies it's a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the market, but there is an interest for sure. As with vegetables, there is a plethora of varieties that go unheard of because they aren't the most profitable crops to grow on a large commercial scale, but many of these old world crops have very unique tastes and appearances.

In my ideal fantasy world, there would be more small tobacco farmers, specializing in organic and heirloom varieties, processing on farm and selling hands of leaf at the farmers market.kinda sounds like the days of old... Haha well anyway, entirely unlikely.

Instead I hope more people will take an interest in growing and processing tobacco themselves to keep the fires burning. That's what I'm doing.

Only issue I see with this is the amount and degree of licensure you need to sell tobacco. With veggies (17-year gardener/horticulturalist here), there are certain outs if you sell a small amount. For example, last I knew, you can claim the Organic® mantle without the ridiculous fees imposed by the USDA if your income from veggies & fruits is less than $10K or so per year.

After we move, I'm going to get some Burley and Virginia growing to get that skill up, and then will be playing around with curing and processing methods. Just in case.

 

[F4RM3R]

Only issue I see with this is the amount and degree of licensure you need to sell tobacco. With veggies (17-year gardener/horticulturalist here), there are certain outs if you sell a small amount. For example, last I knew, you can claim the Organic® mantle without the ridiculous fees imposed by the USDA if your income from veggies & fruits is less than $10K or so per year.

After we move, I'm going to get some Burley and Virginia growing to get that skill up, and then will be playing around with curing and processing methods. Just in case.

Well if that's actually the case in the US, it might be possible for some (really small) small scale tobacco growers to do that. Or just have a portion of their product be organic. In Canada here it's pretty strict and even if you want to tell consumers it's grown using organic methods(not even advertising as organic) you need a permit for that. It's a huge gray area of course and I still inform my customers that I use organic practices while not being certified organic. There is a somewhat middle ground, of farmers that have organically grown products(at slightly less or the same as organic prices), but aren't certified, and the customer just gets to know and trusts the farmer.

Obviously for business like tobacco, things get really sticky with regulations really fast. So my hopes and dreams are mostly that, just hopes and dreams. But I can still hope, and maybe the community around growing can get more active in the future

 

[happy_lunter]

I guess, I need to start building up a cellar!

 

[saltedplug]

I think the way it's going pipes/cigars/snuff/snus or chaw are all going to grow. The medical profession is at the seminal point of accepting the health benefits of nicotine and seeing the facts that what makes tobacco bad is putting it in cigarettes and inhaling it. Once they more widely accept those facts then the public opinion will start turning. Especially when they notice how many old farts are still puffing away and somewhat vital. Seriously that's how I see it. And it's a pretty easy prediction to make. Medical dogma seems to have a life cycle of being over turned. It's weirdly almost always the same starts small with people basically being called cranks. Starts seeping up the chain until there are things like proposals internally at places the W.H.O. and other places and then boom everything turns. (trust me it's a very noticeable pattern and it's already at the point where the big organizations are reconsidering their stance). Seriously they're a stubborn bunch but they do change their minds when evidence starts smacking them in the face.

The medical profession that I know absolutely denounces all forms of tobacco. Where is the evidence that this tide is turning?

 

[NomadOrb]

I think tobacco will be around in one form or another. People really like their cigars in politics and power, so I hope there will always be premium tobacco options.

 

[SoddenJack]

I think sooner than later you’ll have state or federal laws put in place that will restrict, limit, or outright ban online sales of tobacco products. That would probabaly cause a bunch of brands to call it quits, cut their losses, and go the way of McClelland. The aging and dying off of pipe smokers over the next 10-20 years will be another hit to the hobby.

I belive cigarettes will be around in some form for my lifetime. Cigars are seen as a luxury item and status symbol, synonymous with success, so they’ll be around for a long time too. Hoohaks will probably ebb and flow in popularity as 20 somethings “discover” them but always remaining steady in the Middle East. As far as the future of pipe smoking...hipsters and future of smaller artisanal bespoke blends areour only hopes.

 

[saltedplug]

12,000 year old tobacco seeds were found in the American SW. It has been around and will be around. Fans have been and will go on.

 

[Country Bladesmith]

12,000 year old tobacco seeds were found in the American SW. It has been around and will be around. Fans have been and will go on.

Absolute worst case scenario that I can fathom: we become our own growers, blenders, and pipe carvers. A lot of trouble, yes, but I’d do it. Like you said, it’ll continue on in some capacity.

 

[ron123]

Tobacco has had enemies in govt on and off for hundreds of years. It does feel like the heat has gotten progressively hotter the last couple of decades, but it might just be a cyclical thing and will rebound again. How long it will take to start seeing thar uptick is a good question though.

 

[warren]

Tobacco was heavily subsidized by Federal tax dollars long after it was a really profitable crop. One shouldn't forget that. Senators and representatives got into tobacco farming so they could subsidize their already robust salaries. Other countries subsidize their farmers today.

I very much doubt tobacco plantation or even large farms will ever have a substantial place in the US economy ever again. There simply isn't much to be gained unless the US Government decides to subsidize the farmers again. Too many other profitable crops are available and other countries are perfectly capable of providing all the tobacco the world can burn. Nope, there will be certain "boutique" American leaf (wrappers, chaw and Perique immediately come to mind) of course but, tobacco will never again have the place it one time held in the American economy. Too many other countries raise it and have "costs of living" levels which permit raising it cheaply and well.

I do not believe there are even any "Blue Dogs" left so, any chance of subsidies for tobacco returning are slim and none.

 

[verporchting]

^^^^ This.

For us it’s our hobby / passion but remember folks, for centuries it was a cash crop.

No cash, no crop. Nobody is really growing it because they have a burning passion for the leaf (other than a few hobbyists. Those growing it for a living will follow the money. They have to.

 

[smudgersmissingleg]

Tobacco has had enemies in govt on and off for hundreds of years. It does feel like the heat has gotten progressively hotter the last couple of decades, but it might just be a cyclical thing and will rebound again. How long it will take to start seeing thar uptick is a good question though.

In the early 1600's King James the first hated tobacco. It was all about money even back then. Seems we English have our American cousins to thank for The King easing up a bit.

"King James I tried hard to reduce tobacco usage, even instituting a 4,000 percent tax hike on tobacco in 1604. The price increase, however, did little to reduce English demand for the “noxious weed.”

The attitude of the king and members of England's ruling classes changed when tobacco became a cash crop for its colonies. During the early years of English exploration and settlement of North America, only a small amount of tobacco was cultivated and exported. For that reason, in 1604, when King James issued this statement, the main suppliers of tobacco to the English were foreign shippers. Not until the 1620s did the English colonies of Virginia and Maryland began to grow and export large quantities. Accepting the inevitable King James decided the Crown might as well cash in on the popularity of tobacco and the state took control of the industry. Ironically, tobacco cultivation would lay the foundation for the success of England's American colonies."

 

[kola]

Future of tobacco? Grim. How long before they start blood testing everyone for it? for insurance, jobs, etc. The FDA is over-reaching as well and I see no end in that BS. I kow a few guys who grow their own, I guess eventually it could be a nice black market business. OTOH, I'm 62 and have enough tobacco to last me until they compost me.

"Pipe Smokers Lives Matter." I need a T-shirt with that on it.