The Collective State Of Affairs

[iamn8]

I was shopping online for a tobacco purchase just now. It's been quite awhile since I've done so and I was looking forward to it. I had planned on ordering a few blends I'd been meaning to try. As I shopped, my irrational mind went into overdrive. With all of the government intervention, the slow collapse of the smaller blenders market, and now the soon'ish demise of Dunhill pipe tobacco, i find the shopping experience to be FAR less fun than it once was. My cart went from "a few new blends to try" to "why try new when my staples will be gone soon and Dunhill's on sale". It's irrational'ish because things aren't changing this second, but even so I find it impossible to file it into the "things to worry about later" file. It bleeds into everything pipe and I seriously do NOT like it. I see nothing on the horizon that will make things better, only worse. What's truly irrational is that I likely already have enough, but when faced with anything you truly enjoy being taken away, rational thinking has a way of going out the proverbial window. It feels like legal gentlemanly looting, grabbing as much water as you can carry when faced with an impending weather event. Everything about the entire "grab everything you can carry" mentality... it's fear based, selfish, irrational, and unnecessary, yet it's an evolutionary reaction that's stronger in some than others. Some people are very lucky. They have a great many things which bring them joy/satisfaction. Some have found but a few. For those with a few, put any of those in harms way and watch out. Irrationality rules. It's easy to give advice to someone in such a situation. Explore new horizons. Try other blends. Get out more often. Buy only what you need and leave everything else behind.... play with your "fish". Drive your car. That's good rational advice, but we aren't talking about rational.
What's my point? I am without this "point" of which you speak. Sometimes commiseration is all that's needed

I'm gonna go order that which I set out to order, a few blends I've been meaning to try.

 

[mcitinner1]

Well you done flat out talked me into that one Nate :!:
I already bought twice this week

 

[wyfbane]

I keep wondering why I am seeing new blends if they are just going to get nixed next year anyway. Seems odd to me.

 

[jefff]

At times like this our brains can try and ruin our lives. I have found peace in the thought that I enjoy almost all tobacco equally. For a while I got all rambunctious about tobacco that will soon be gone.
Not too long ago I looked at my cellar list and found that about 65-70% were pre 2007. Then I stopped and considered all the old blends I have never tried.
I concluded that I would be ok, with plenty of "new" blends to try and plenty of old faithfuls to enjoy.
I told my brain to STFU and went back to enjoying life.

 

[aquadoc]

What is the reality of the new regulations? What is safe? What is not? I have tried to wade through the quagmire and make sense of it but it is convoluted as hell and everyone seems to interpret it differently. Will it be overturned? Odds?

 

[sablebrush52]

What is the reality of the new regulations? What is safe? What is not? I have tried to wade through the quagmire and make sense of it but it is convoluted as hell and everyone seems to interpret it differently. Will it be overturned? Odds?

With regard to tobacco blends the basic part is pretty straightforward. Blends which have been continuously on the market since before February 15th 2007 will be grandfathered in without undergoing a ruinously expensive deeming process. Blends that entered or reentered the market after February 15th 2007 will have to either undergo one of two hideously expensive "deeming" paths to remain on the market after August 8th of 2018. If these newer blends have not been approved by the FDA they will need to be off the shelves by August 8th 2018.
Any blends entering the market after August 8th of 2016 must be FDA approved to go on sale.
There's a lot more to this, but from the standpoint of what's staying and what's going, this is the framework.
The next logical question is "How do I tell when a blend was introduced into the market?" Some blends, like GL Pease, list their date of inception on tobaccoreviews.com. Others entry dates can be inferred by looking for the earliest recorded review of that blend.
Even if the vast majority of blends get retired there will still be a lot of excellent choices for now. The FDA reserves the right to revoke the grandfathered status of any blend. There are over 6000 blends in circulation. Even if there are 1,000 blends left after August 2018 there will be much more choice than was available when I started smoking.
As for the FDA Final Deeming Rule being completely overturned, nobody sees this as likely. But it's possible that the date for grandfathering could be shifted to August 8th of 2016. I think that any changes are something of a long shot.
I'm well supplied, so this doesn't effect me. On another recent thread I gave the reasons that I cellared. The possibility of bullshit like this is one of those reasons.
But there's a bright side to all of this. As the tens of thousands of geezers with large cellars croak out, the contents may go up for sale. Tons of discontinued tobaccos may come to market. (Insipid emoticon added so that my humorous remark will not be misinterpreted)

 

[aquadoc]

Thank you for that summary. I need to find a new job and fast...as I look at my 6 ounces of tobacco. LOL.

 

[iamn8]

Your girlfriend dumps you.. "There are plenty of other fish in the sea".
Sprite is my fav soft drink. If it was taken away, would it make me feel better to know there are plenty of other soft drinks?
I mean yes, there are lots of other blends (for now), but I'm uncertain how that's comforting. Perhaps you'll find others you like or maybe not. Regardless, still sucks.

 

[jefff]

Life is great! People are awesome! Pipe smoking kicks ass!
Change is inevitable, but then you how out a post and a good guy answers it and life continues to be great.
To be truly happy one must have everything they want, and to know when to stop wanting.

 

[weezell]

Your girlfriend dumps you.. "There are plenty of other fish in the sea".

But Dad, I just got used to the smell of that fish... :rofl:

 

[iamn8]

That's good advice Jeff! Thanks!!!
"I had my chance.' He said it, retiring from a lifetime of wanting. 'I had my chance, and sometimes in life, there are no second chances. You look at what you have, not what you miss, and you move forward."
- Jamie Ford, Hotel on the Corner of Bitter and Sweet

 

[mortonbriar]

But Dad, I just got used to the smell of that fish

Is there an emoticon to express an impulsive snort of mirth?

 

[weezell]

:twisted:

 

[mortonbriar]

For me it's not just a matter of looking at the big picture (that can still seem pretty gloomy for tobacco's future) but to look at the proactive and constructive potential aspect of the big picture. An example of what I mean is that I can extend my current hobby to growing my own leaves, curing, blending etc etc if I see that as an opportunity rather than focus on the threat the whole experience stays invigorating. On other days I just mope about, kicking things and whining about how unfair it is. Still, every day is new and I have the chance to appreciate life for what it is.
Isaac

 

[prairiedruid]

I'm just cellaring a few "new" (mainly some SToP selections) blends that I really like and now spend my speculative money on blends that will be here after 2018. First up, I threw some PA and Carter Hall into my latest cart.

 

[jabo]

Always wanted to bag a Wooly Mammoth or Sabertooth cat. But allas,they are extinct too. I'll survive !

 

[philobeddoe]

I keep coming back to Vaping.....in my neck of the woods, my rough guess is that something on the order of 25% ~ 50% of cigarette smokers have switched to vaping or e-cigarettes. I just don't see the current administration pulling all of these voters vapes out of their hands three months before an election! I'm not saying that they will repeal the Deeming Act completely, I don't see any possibility of that, but this whole damn thing was just a push from Big Tobacco to rid themselves of the Vaping competition that is costing them many millions of dollars and pipe tobacco and cigars were simply part of the collateral damage due to the language of the act needing to be so vague and broad to capture all of the different vaping methods and ephemera. BTW, I think hand rolled cigars will be able to lobby themselves an exemption, as they have a strong pull in Washington. So, what the politicians need to calculate is this....what is more risky, pissing off Big Tobacco and losing all that lobbying cash or pissing off millions of vaping voters three months before the first election cycle of a new administration? My guess is that there will be a compomise of sorts, that will push the incept date forward, maybe not all the way to August 2016, but not so far back as 2007. Just my 2 cents.

 

[aimlesswanderer]

I want pipe tobacco. I don't NEED pipe tobacco. That simple realisation is enough for me if I get tempted to add more tobacco or peripherals than necessary to my order.
However, there are people who genuinely feel they NEED pipe tobacco, and often in large quantities too. I don't judge those people, but I'm really glad not to be one of them.

 

[iamn8]

I'm with you, wandering aimlessly. I survived most of my life without it and would survive again. Nobody "needs" tobacco of any kind. We're talking vices here.

 

[aimlesswanderer]

We still all value it differently though, some higher than others. Besides, I like to consider it a virtue rather than a vice :P