Sasieni Danzey Craziness....

[ssjones]

As you folks know, I love most British made Bulldogs, Rhodesians and Authors. All of my Sasieni's are from the Family era, from '46 to '79. The Danzey is a shape I do not have. Last week, Great Estate listed this unsmoked model, with box and bag:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/361183835364?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&autorefresh=true
My PAD account is flush at the moment, so I thought I'd made a play to around the $300 mark. Great Estate sold another unsmoked Sasieni in December, which brought $413. I just could't wrap my head around a $400 Family Era pipe. The tough part was passing on a tapered stem model. The Danzey shape shows up with some frequency, but it is typically the S model with saddle stem. Very rarely have I seen a tapered stem model. Nice S models might go $225 or so. My other problem was paying a premium for an unsmoked pipe, which will just be smoked upon arrival.
This morning, the bids leap to over $283. When I came home from work, they were over $300. By 8 PM or so, the price jumped to $441 (these aren't exact, I'm too lazy to look up the bidding...) In the final seconds, it wen to $523. Holy Smokes, someone wanted this pipe bad. The winning bidder has a 169 Ebay rating, interesting.
I am NOT nuts for passing on this pipe - right?

 

[pipebaum81]

SSjones, at that price and with a collection already in hand I don't think you are nuts, no. If it is true that pipe smoking is growing in popularity, I wonder if seasoned folks will start to notice a markable upswing in estate prices. Newbs who are foraging for an instant collection with loose money to spend may be behind over half a G for a 50 some year old Sasieni. Don't get me wrong, she is a beauty but I think we might all be taken aback by this sale price.

 

[sablebrush52]

Hi Al,
Crazy? Not in my book. The $523 is the premium paid for an unsmoked vintage pipe from a highly regarded maker. I took a look at the bidding, including the automated bidding and also took a look at the buying habits of the bidders.
The winning bidder put in a high maximum and walked away while several others bid the price up. The sniper was looking at $441 when his bid was placed, so this wasn't a case of a wild eyed sniper firing high. It was rather a conservative raise compared to many that I've seen.
The bidders were all pipe collectors, not buying addicts, crazies, bored trust fund loafers, or generalists. Pipe collectors tend to bid more conservatively than the aforementioned eBay types. Therefore the bidding represents what pipe collectors are willing to pay for an unsmoked Sasieni of this model on this day.
EBay doesn't exist to provide bargains. That's the pitch that brings the suckers in. EBay prices generally represent fairly predictable values over time.
Since you were going to smoke it, the first match would have cost you around $175-$200. Why spend the extra boodle? Another opportunity will come along. Another always does.

 

[ssjones]

Since you were going to smoke it, the first match would have cost you around $175-$200. Why spend the extra boodle? Another opportunity will come along. Another always does.

That is the conclusion I came to this afternoon, after some internal wrestling. As I watched the final bid change from $441 to $523, I must have had a wry smile on my face as my wife asked why I was smiling.
This pipe also has the XS stamping and a tapered stem. That rare combination must have been a big factor.
These Family era prices make some sense:

Unsmoked Melton @ $370

http://www.ebay.com/itm/UNSMOKED-FAMILY-ERA-Sasieni-FOUR-DOT-MELTON-English-Estate-Pipe-NOS-VERY-MINT-/201252233450?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2edb9160ea
Unsmoked Danzey S $415 (mentioned earlier)

http://www.ebay.com/itm/UNSMOKED-FAMILY-ERA-Sasieni-FOUR-DOT-DANZEY-English-Estate-Pipe-NOS-VERY-MINT-/400816639629?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item5d52888e8d
I sort of get this final price, as it is a more sought after (well, to this point) Patent Era pipe.

Ashford @ $998

http://www.ebay.com/itm/AWESOME-PRE-WW2-PATENT-FAMILY-ERA-Sasieni-FOUR-DOT-ASHFORD-English-Estate-Pipe-/201240152641?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2edad90a41

 

[sablebrush52]

I sort of get this final price, as it is a more sought after (well, to this point) Patent Era pipe.

Ashford @ $998

This last one was craziness, a perfect example of when crazies bid.
The "winner", Bachelor #1, at $998, buys the following:
Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Sweaters

Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Dress/Formal

Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Coats & Jackets

Collectibles > Pipes
Bachelor #2 is apparently a pipe collector.
Bachelor #3 is a fine example of a species of eBay crazy with 113576 transactions:
Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Athletic

Music > Records

Toys & Hobbies > RC Engines, Parts & Accs

Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Unisex Adult Clothing

Collectibles > Contemporary (1940-Now)

Collectibles > Shaving

Collectibles > Contemporary (1940-Now)

Toys & Hobbies > Magic the Gathering

Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Vests

Business & Industrial > Government & Public Safety

Collectibles > Contemporary (1940-Now)

Collectibles > Cats

Toys & Hobbies > Magic the Gathering

Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Dresses

Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Men's Vintage Clothing

Toys & Hobbies > HO Scale

Jewelry & Watches > Wristwatches

Crafts > Stamp Collections & Mixed Lots

Crafts > Stamp Collections & Mixed Lots

Collectibles > Current Militaria (2001-Now)

Collectibles > Lighters

Collectibles > Militaria (Date Unknown)

Collectibles > Animation

Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Boots

Collectibles > Bed & Bath Linens

Collectibles > Contemporary (1940-Now)

Collectibles > Contemporary (1940-Now)

Collectibles > Contemporary (1940-Now)

Clothing, Shoes & Accessories > Coats & Jackets

Dolls & Bears > By Brand, Company, Character
Not a pipe collector, but someone who collects a lot of vintage crap from a period to which this pipe belongs.
Bachelors 2 and 3 get into a bidding war. Then bachelor 2 and 1 get into a bidding war.
Result? A fat profit for Chance.
I run across plenty of bachelor #3 types on eBay and they always run the price into the stratosphere. Combine them with the "I will pay anything to win" species of sniper and the price reaches Pluto.
Prices on eBay result from a whole range of personality disorders that have nothing to do with the intrinsic or market value of the object.

 

[buroak]

sablebrush52, That is fantastically insightful and hilarious analysis. I have seen your Bachelor #3 rear his head on some other listings and send the price through the roof. I wonder if he would have smoked the pipe while wearing his "Unisex Adult Clothing" and playing Magic The Gathering.
ssjones, Not that you need to hear it from yet another soul, but the smart move was the one you made. A good estate specimen will surface, and for a lot fewer greenbacks.

 

[fnord]

You did good, Al. Set your limit and stay behind the line.
Jesse and Buroak called it: another one always comes along. It might be next week and it might take two years. But what's important to you today will be important then.
Fnord

 

[snagstangl]

I have to tap six mana before I can bid on ebay...

 

[ssjones]

I also love the buyers analysis Jesse! Chance must be very pleased with those outcomes. I wonder what else he has stashed away?

I bet we'll all laugh in 10 years, when this one resurfaces, still unsmoked, and sells for $4,000.

Hopefully by then, I'll have a similar one that has been charred and chewed by yours truly.

 

[stvalentine]

sablebrush52 you know your Ebay! :clap:
quote:
EBay doesn't exist to provide bargains. That's the pitch that brings the suckers in. EBay prices generally represent fairly predictable values over time.
Since you were going to smoke it, the first match would have cost you around $175-$200. Why spend the extra boodle? Another opportunity will come along. Another always does.
unqoute
I think this goes for every item on Ebay and this is how I mostly bid. One needs to be even-tempered when loging in on Ebay.... ::

 

[peteguy]

I got lost at Bachelor #1...