One Modeled Storm Track for Dorian...
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Hope all of our members here from the Southeast are able to stay safe. Keeping you all (and everyone else in the region) in my prayers.
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The eyewall winds are now hitting 185...
For all practical purposes that's an EF-4 tornado several dozen miles wide.
Hurricanes almost always (one did not, decades ago) weaken dramatically as soon as the eye moves over land, because the "heat fuel" of the ocean water stops flowing up into them.
If the eye happens to STAY straddled half on land and half over water as it moves forward, though, it WON'T weaken for that reason. Only the water gradually cooling as it travels northward will reduce its intensity/windspeed.
That the curving "up and east" path northern hemisphere hurricanes always take could exactly match the shape of the US coastline and be a cat 4/5 while doing it, is the worst of all possible scenarios.
It probably won't happen---too many variables are in play---but just seeing that it could is chilling.
For all practical purposes that's an EF-4 tornado several dozen miles wide.
Hurricanes almost always (one did not, decades ago) weaken dramatically as soon as the eye moves over land, because the "heat fuel" of the ocean water stops flowing up into them.
If the eye happens to STAY straddled half on land and half over water as it moves forward, though, it WON'T weaken for that reason. Only the water gradually cooling as it travels northward will reduce its intensity/windspeed.
That the curving "up and east" path northern hemisphere hurricanes always take could exactly match the shape of the US coastline and be a cat 4/5 while doing it, is the worst of all possible scenarios.
It probably won't happen---too many variables are in play---but just seeing that it could is chilling.
I guess then, despite living in FL, having it hit and weaken in FL would be best case for all.
I'm sitting on my porch in Ocala, no shirt, shorts, a fan, some coffee and my pipe waiting around to see what happens.
This one is as freakish as any I've seen and if it mimics Andrew, gawd help those but of course making comparisons of ugly is foolish.
I'm sitting on my porch in Ocala, no shirt, shorts, a fan, some coffee and my pipe waiting around to see what happens.
This one is as freakish as any I've seen and if it mimics Andrew, gawd help those but of course making comparisons of ugly is foolish.
Keep a close eye on this one. I'm in central N.C., and monitor it every few hours. In 1996, Fran looked like a coastal event, not good, but only at the shore. Almost unreported, it took a turn inland, and no one outside N.C. knew we'd been hit in a major way that took months to clean up and downed trees and tore up houses all over town. Friends had a new wing on their home leveled by a huge old oak tree. The wind speeds on Dorian are in the top reaches. The tracking makes it look like is is being steered along the coast, but the steering winds are weak. East is the direction I hope it trends, out into the ocean.
I have my hurricane shutter guy on standby if the storm looks like it wants to mess with the west coast of Florida. My home is rated to withstand a cat 5 hurricane.
Not only historically strong, but historically nerve wracking for Florida.
The damn thing is practically parked---barely moved for 24 hours---as close as it can be without affecting much, like it's trying to make up its mind. "Should I eat the Gold Coast for breakfast, then slide up and have Jacksonville for lunch? Or just kick north and disappear? Decisions, decisions..."
In the meantime the Bahamas are pretty much getting erased. They have excellent building codes there, but spotty enforcement of them. It's gonna look like ground zero of an atomic test site in places...
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The damn thing is practically parked---barely moved for 24 hours---as close as it can be without affecting much, like it's trying to make up its mind. "Should I eat the Gold Coast for breakfast, then slide up and have Jacksonville for lunch? Or just kick north and disappear? Decisions, decisions..."
In the meantime the Bahamas are pretty much getting erased. They have excellent building codes there, but spotty enforcement of them. It's gonna look like ground zero of an atomic test site in places...
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God help the Bahamas and the folks there. In the U.S. the big hazard appears to be the potential flooding. After hurricanes, people always look around say, oh that wasn't too bad. And then they go out driving and foraging and get into trouble in the moving water or at the shore or on roads that have washed out. More storm deaths are from flooding than wind, by far. So be cautious and take your time getting out.
One kind lady (bless her) took in 100 street dogs to keep them from drowning...many of them look like they have been living in Uganda...but at least now they had a chance at life...she is hoping some will be adopted....and looking at the aftermath of the storm...looks like alot of people need to be adopted.
Just a horror of a storm! After going through Andrew, this storm has made its mark in many peoples lives.
Just a horror of a storm! After going through Andrew, this storm has made its mark in many peoples lives.
Here at our house on Isle of Palms, SC...things are still good here, water rising some, was on the beach earlier; all the locals are still here pretty much, done this before. 90 mph gusts and some surge expected, nothing much else to worry about.
Happened across this report on the hurricane-related flooding near SPC/C&D last year. Yikes! Hope for everybody's sake down there that Dorian doesn't drop that much water.
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