My Predictions

[anotherbob]

I think in 20 years or so pipe smoking, snus taking, snuff sniffing, and probably something I am forgetting are going to be much more common. I think that people are more health conscious and adventurous in general. I think people will notice how not like cigarette smokers we all are in terms of health and morbidity. I don't think it will be like the heyday but I think that is the direction things will take. I also suspect that one of the big reasons tobacco use surged and was insanely common and ubiquitous the way coffee is now, is because it's not that dangerous if you don't suck it into your lungs. Where as after cigarettes became the main tobacco style used, the popularity of tobacco started to wane (which never really happened on a continuous level). Part of that for me is how the most common reaction I get from smoking a pipe is encouragement.
Another thing that I think will contribute is how many more (by percentage as observed non scientifically by myself) people have a pipe now and then or on the weekend (year after year) compared to the percentage that do it with cigs (many of the people who tell me they're not addicted and only smoke occasionally, seem to have a cig during every break).
Then again I think people make up their own minds with these things, and yes they can be heavily influenced. But at the end of the day I think people weigh the risks and rewards.
I think the two biggest differences is that pipe smoking is going to be as acceptable among men and woman in general (there will always be that place where it's not the case), and I think that there will be more premium high end top shelf pipe tobaccos that cost an arm and a leg.
That's just the horse I am betting on. But I feel pretty confident that in most of our lifetimes we'll become the I did it before it was normal and cool. (like tats. When I got my first few I was told I was throwing my future away, now my doctors got a sick sleeve and every soccer mom has a few pieces of ink).

 

[verporchting]

I predict that time will tell, lol.

I feel pretty confident about my prediction.

 

[bullet08]

How many native American Indians dying of lung cancer before pilgrims came? I bet they never inhaled.

 

[dunnyboy]

How many native American Indians dying of lung cancer before pilgrims came? I bet they never inhaled.

I doubt if anyone died of lung cancer from smoking back then. They didn't live long enough.

 

[OverMountain]

The problem isn’t an economic one, it’s a political one. Advances in the nanny state ebbs the free market.

 

[Winnipeger]

I think in 20 years or so pipe smoking, snus taking, snuff sniffing, and probably something I am forgetting are going to be much more common. I think that people are more health conscious and adventurous in general. I think people will notice how not like cigarette smokers we all are in terms of health and morbidity. I don't think it will be like the heyday but I think that is the direction things will take. I also suspect that one of the big reasons tobacco use surged and was insanely common and ubiquitous the way coffee is now, is because it's not that dangerous if you don't suck it into your lungs. Where as after cigarettes became the main tobacco style used, the popularity of tobacco started to wane (which never really happened on a continuous level). Part of that for me is how the most common reaction I get from smoking a pipe is encouragement.
Another thing that I think will contribute is how many more (by percentage as observed non scientifically by myself) people have a pipe now and then or on the weekend (year after year) compared to the percentage that do it with cigs (many of the people who tell me they're not addicted and only smoke occasionally, seem to have a cig during every break).
Then again I think people make up their own minds with these things, and yes they can be heavily influenced. But at the end of the day I think people weigh the risks and rewards.
I think the two biggest differences is that pipe smoking is going to be as acceptable among men and woman in general (there will always be that place where it's not the case), and I think that there will be more premium high end top shelf pipe tobaccos that cost an arm and a leg.
That's just the horse I am betting on. But I feel pretty confident that in most of our lifetimes we'll become the I did it before it was normal and cool. (like tats. When I got my first few I was told I was throwing my future away, now my doctors got a sick sleeve and every soccer mom has a few pieces of ink).

Yup.

 

[anotherbob]

I doubt if anyone died of lung cancer from smoking back then. They didn't live long enough.

not really the case. Life expectancy is an average but the upper end of life spans has stayed pretty consistent. However more people get to the old fart stage of life now.

 

[anotherbob]

The problem isn’t an economic one, it’s a political one. Advances in the nanny state ebbs the free market.

not really. It's got way more to do with public perception. Anything happening with tobacco doesn't even compare to the situation that lead to Midwakh. Fun fact prohibition in America was extremely popular and came from public demand. Well until it became a total failure.

 

[FLDRD]

I think in 20 years or so pipe smoking, snus taking, snuff sniffing, and probably something I am forgetting are going to be much more common. I think that people are more health conscious and adventurous in general. I think people will notice how not like cigarette smokers we all are in terms of health and morbidity. I don't think it will be like the heyday but I think that is the direction things will take. I also suspect that one of the big reasons tobacco use surged and was insanely common and ubiquitous the way coffee is now, is because it's not that dangerous if you don't suck it into your lungs. Where as after cigarettes became the main tobacco style used, the popularity of tobacco started to wane (which never really happened on a continuous level). Part of that for me is how the most common reaction I get from smoking a pipe is encouragement.
Another thing that I think will contribute is how many more (by percentage as observed non scientifically by myself) people have a pipe now and then or on the weekend (year after year) compared to the percentage that do it with cigs (many of the people who tell me they're not addicted and only smoke occasionally, seem to have a cig during every break).
Then again I think people make up their own minds with these things, and yes they can be heavily influenced. But at the end of the day I think people weigh the risks and rewards.
I think the two biggest differences is that pipe smoking is going to be as acceptable among men and woman in general (there will always be that place where it's not the case), and I think that there will be more premium high end top shelf pipe tobaccos that cost an arm and a leg.
That's just the horse I am betting on. But I feel pretty confident that in most of our lifetimes we'll become the I did it before it was normal and cool. (like tats. When I got my first few I was told I was throwing my future away, now my doctors got a sick sleeve and every soccer mom has a few pieces of ink).

I'd be more inclined to think that's a pipe dream.
I might like it, but I doubt it...

 

[mso489]

Since no one can predict, everyone can predict. I'd go with the idea that pipe smoking will remain a niche activity. It requires a bit of learning to enjoy it, and though many are self taught, I think it is more effort than many want to exert. I'm not sure I would enjoy it more if it were more general in the public. That would probably bring with it stereotypes that would be annoying.

For a while young people who smoked pipes were called hipsters ... a term which I don't think ever had a definition except for young people in Brooklyn who weren't homeless. In the '50s, pipes were professorial. Since I'm neither a young person in Brooklyn nor a professor, I think I can live without that.

 

[SBC]

Cigarettes and Dip anecdotally seem to be most addictive forms of tobacco -- precious few people smoke cigarettes or dip "in moderation" or "on occasion." If you smoke cigarettes at all, chances are that you smoke a pack a day; and, if you dip at all, chances are that you go through a can every couple days.

Whereas a very high percentage of pipe and cigar smokers, smoke once a day (or less).

Explain it however you like, it appears to be the reality. So, yes, you would think that this reality would factor into norms in the future. Then again, how long has it been since norms made sense?

 

[WVOldFart]

It requires a bit of learning to enjoy it, and though many are self taught, I think it is more effort than many want to exert.

I think you are absolutely correct. My neighbor was complaining about his cigars and how he wanted to stop smoking them. So to be neighborly and friendly, I bought him a Dr. Grabow and some tobacco and gave it to him. I told him I would help him if he needed any instruction or he could find plenty of advice on youtube. I have yet to see him smoke it. He is still smoking his cigars. I haven't mentioned it to him because I feel I have done my part. I can only imagine that the first time he tried the pipe and had difficulty keeping it lit or torched his mouth, he was finished with it and went back to the cigars. Too much effort to have a good smoking experience.

 

[karam]

not really the case. Life expectancy is an average but the upper end of life spans has stayed pretty consistent. However more people get to the old fart stage of life now.

It's nuanced, but you're right. Life expectancy has gone up dramatically since the 1940s, however life span of humans is pretty much unchanged since written history began.

There's a misconception of everyone dying young from ancient times to today, the reality is that getting past childhood was the first major hurdle, with childhood mortality being abysmally high all the way to the late 1800s, then those who were robust enough to survive the horrible diseases that plagued humans throughout history could well expect to live past 50 years old. 70 was considered pretty old, and above that venerable, but it was not so uncommon. It really was natural selection, get past childhood diseases, be lucky enough your king was not at war with another king or die in a random act of violence/accident, women not dying in childbirth or soon after from infection and those who made it lived quite well. Even non-infectious diseases like cancer and diabetes were known all the way back to ancient Egypt and Greece. Romans noted that slaves working in asbestos mines used to die of a lung disease.

As for tobacco, I am not hopeful. I am sure it will survive in one form or another for another 30-40 years but that's it I feel.

 

[warren]

There will always be tobacco for those who can afford it. Just like water in California. Gasoline, electricity and such will be available. You simply need to have the moneys to pay for such. Or, I suppose, the foresight to hoard. People can have enough money but, no one can have too much money. Especially true for those of us who burn money, watching as the smoke wafts upwards, simply because we enjoy it and/or crave the nicotine. We should all understand, smoking costs will rise so, prepare ... make more money, hoard or, find another wee vice.

Whereas a very high percentage of pipe and cigar smokers, smoke once a day (or less).

Over 50%? Under 50%? Supporting numbers please.

 

[anotherbob]

Cigarettes and Dip anecdotally seem to be most addictive forms of tobacco -- precious few people smoke cigarettes or dip "in moderation" or "on occasion." If you smoke cigarettes at all, chances are that you smoke a pack a day; and, if you dip at all, chances are that you go through a can every couple days.

Whereas a very high percentage of pipe and cigar smokers, smoke once a day (or less).

Explain it however you like, it appears to be the reality. So, yes, you would think that this reality would factor into norms in the future. Then again, how long has it been since norms made sense?

it's biology. The quicker a substance gets into the bloodstream and into the brain the more addicting it is. Has something to do with how it's processed. One clear example is how different a night of polishing off a bottle of gin that's slowly sipped and slamming shots. One of those is going to be a messier experience. Cigs get the nicotine into ones blood pretty instantly. And also those products are altered to increase that effect as well.

 

[woodsroad]

I’ll bet lunch at The Wooden Match in Bethlehem, PA that you are entirely incorrect. Pipe smoking in the US will continue to decline overall. In 20 years, pipe tobacco may be by prescription only.

 

[warren]

Cigs get the nicotine into ones blood pretty instantly. And also those products are altered to increase that effect as well.

Don't forget pipes and cigars. Through the various membranes and into the blood fairly quickly.

 

[SBC]

There will always be tobacco for those who can afford it. Just like water in California. Gasoline, electricity and such will be available. You simply need to have the moneys to pay for such. Or, I suppose, the foresight to hoard. People can have enough money but, no one can have too much money. Especially true for those of us who burn money, watching as the smoke wafts upwards, simply because we enjoy it and/or crave the nicotine. We should all understand, smoking costs will rise so, prepare ... make more money, hoard or, find another wee vice.


Over 50%? Under 50%? Supporting numbers please.

Warren, I am a man without an expedient, as you know. That data doesn't exist -- cannot feasibly exist -- as such. I have only my myopic, anecdotal exposure to those whom I've met, together with the myopic, anecdotal exposures of those whom I've met.

As I suspect is fairly normal, I've known many cigarette smokers in my life, and many dippers in my life (defining both as people who ever use cigarettes or dip at all), and of them all, about two of the cigarette smokers claimed to smoke only on celebratory social occasions, and none of the dippers made any such claim. Almost all cigarette smokers, and certainly all dippers, whom I've ever met, used their forms of tobacco multiple times a day, every day.

On the other hand, I can think off the cuff of upwards of 20 guys whom I have personally known, who would smoke a cigar or pipe only on special, social occasions.

And I can think of a few more who have only one pipe a day.

Does this prove anything statistically? Of course not. It's entirely possible that my experience is an outlier.
I don't think that it is, but you're under no statistical obligation to agree with me.

 

[anotherbob]

Don't forget pipes and cigars. Through the various membranes and into the blood fairly quickly.

but much slower then if they went into the lungs. And the path the blood travels from the lungs and from the mouth are much different. The blood from the lungs goes right to the heart and then the brain from the mouth it goes through the rest of the body first. It's not a massive difference in time, but it is enough to change how our bodies react to it. A minute versus nearly instant. Kind of like how you can slowly lower yourself into cold water and it's not that bad but if you get dunked into the same water it's very uncomfortable. Similar process.

 

[anotherbob]

I’ll bet lunch at The Wooden Match in Bethlehem, PA that you are entirely incorrect. Pipe smoking in the US will continue to decline overall. In 20 years, pipe tobacco may be by prescription only.

though it seems to be rebounding and at a steady non trendy way. Which is often how things become super common.