Inflation.

[sablebrush52]

There is almost zero talk about this. A few things I'd like to see on the news. First, this is global. Most countries, China included, have worse inflation than the USA. I don't know who or what they're doing in WashDC, but comparatively, they're doing a pretty good job. Second, while inflation has been 6-8%, prices have gone up 15-20%. That's not inflation. That gouging. Couple the gouging with shrinkflation, and you have a lot of business taking advantage of the situation. Third, since we're talking about eggs, according to Farm Report, they've killed 57 million chickens so far. Inflation is a small part of what is happening with eggs. Fourth, there hasn't been a new oil refinery built since 1974. This is for a couple reasons: 1) oil companies have no interest in creating a greater supply 2) no citizens/towns want a new refinery in their backyard. Fifth, like gouging in the grocery store, oil companies have reported consistent record-breaking profits every quarter for a while now (too lazy to look it up). Each quarter is a new profit record. Again, that isn't inflation. That's good ol' opportunistic gouging. There are a slew of recordings of oil heads talking about how it is good for them if we're in a slight recession. They aren't going to do anything to help out public matters because it isn't in their best interest. If anything, they're going to slyly contribute to a recession because it better serves their stockholders.

One of my staples has been Boars Head No Salt Turkey. It's an indulgence, but since I work a 60 hour week, cooking up a bird and then rendering it into portions takes more time than I have, since there's so many other things to get done. Last year it was about $12 a pound. Now it's $16 a pound, an increase of 30%. But there's an independent market that I visit when I'm down in Mission Viejo, where the current price is $9.99 a pound. This is an independent who doesn't get the same break in prices as a supermarket chain charging $6 more. Do I think grocery stores are screwing their customers? Is a 400 pound robin fat?

 

[fireground_piper]

Yep, prices are up. Fortunately, my wife and I live a very small life. I can only imagine the impact on those who do not.

 

[sablebrush52]

Now, let me ask a question.

Where did that three World War Two’s worth of money go?

If people spent it all, prices would have gone up much more than they did.

There are a lot of factors that go into this period that weren't in play during the past three years. Going into WW2 we still in a depression, so a lot of the population was living paycheck to paycheck and a huge number were surviving by the skin of their teeth. There's nothing like a war to ramp up an economy, especially if the war is being fought elsewhere. So a lot of that money ended up as spent and destroyed armaments needing to be replaced, as well as wages to workers, medical care, engineering and development of infrastructure, etc. There was severe rationing of supplies deemed essential for the war effort, so demand didn't become a big factor as prices were also subject to controls.

After the war a lot of people didn't piss away their money, having survived a brutal depression. They saved it or invested it against future economic calamity. Some did go wild with their money as demand for consumer goods began to rise, but overall, people were a lot more careful with expenses than they now are.

Perhaps the lack of an onslaught of marketing, which in today's world goes on intensely and relentlessly 24/7 was a factor as well.

 

[warren]

Where did that three World War Two’s worth of money go?

If people spent it all, prices would have gone up much more than they did.

This was a time when savings accounts were considered worth while. My parents started me off with such at about age seven. People do not save money, as a rule, these days. We have raised a couple of generations of spenders, people who seek instant gratification. Savings accounts are not instilled in children, the interest rate is minimal. So, saving money simply because it is a good trait to learn and instill in others is, today, derided because of the low interest. Kids do not need higher interest, they need to learn to save, learn the value of "stuff" and, most especially that a life of spending will eventually catch up with them, find them totally unprepared for the vissitudes of everyday life, illness, taxes, rampant inflation, etc.

I was taught in junior high school some basic economics. My parents taught me thrift and spending moneys wisely.

Sable really nailed it. The children of the Depression" grew up with a phenominal lesson with regard to the value of money.

 

[Briar Lee]

One huge difference that’s occurred in the last half a century I’ve been old enough to remember well is, until there was a Walmart and a McDonalds right down the road (later Amazon and eBay and Door Dash on our phones) people didn’t have the opportunity to spend as much as we do today.

Unless you went to town, you couldn’t spend any money.

My family bought groceries once a week at Overshiner’s Grocery.

They bought one six bottle carton of Pepsi, mostly for me, and a pound of coffee for them.

My father farmed 300 acres of his own, and 170 more he rented. He owned exactly one red tool box, full of tools he’d bought at the local Western Auto.

I can’t even count my tool boxes, and I buy four two pound cans of coffee a month auto shipped from Amazon, just for me at home, and too many twenty some dollar pipes from eBay to mention.

There weren’t as many dollars then, chasing too few goods.

Tom T Hall described it well:

 

[trouttimes]

The work place and manufacturing has been forever altered. There was an exodus of boomers from the job market. Simultaneously all retired at once over the course of about two years. They were a massive generation that were all clumped together age wise. There are not enough people of working age to fill the gap they left in the workforce. With wages rising people are leaving low paying jobs in favor of jobs willing to pay more. Low level manufacturing positions are not getting filled. This drives up the price of goods, it makes raw materials more expensive and harder to get. Transportation was one of the industry’s hardest hit by the Boomer & wage exodus. This drives up price of transporting the already more expensive goods and materials even further. At my company we cannot get micro chips for components to repair our automation equipment throughout the entire food processing industry, so equipment goes un-repaired further driving up the cost food. Avian flu, fuel prices, etc. The point is there is not any one single thing, political party, or any other source driving inflation. It’s a combination of many different factors, none of which have readily available solution.

Prices have risen over the last 24-36 months around me. I agree with many of the reasons listed. I think fuel is one of the biggest problems but…fertilizer is petroleum based, most herbicide/pesticides are petroleum based. No one farms with an electric tractor so farm fuel is almost double. It is almost a losing proposition to farm at the current overhead. The near future is not bright.

 

[Briar Tuck]

Yes, everything is up here on the Oregon coast as well. Fortunately I harvest much of our food so the impact on us is minimal. Eggs are about $3.50 a dozen here, but will assuredly continue to climb. I have friends with chickens and I can always barter for eggs as needed.

 

[username]

I’m to tired to mock it up myself. But picture the two astronauts meme. one astronaut in space looking down at the earth and he saying “wait it’s just greed” and the other astronaut is standing behind him aiming a gun on the other says “always has been”.

 

[swampgrizzly]

(It's not my intention to start a political discussion. Whose fault it is will always be a never-ending circular discussion and won't solve anything anyway. I'm only going to point out my experiences of late.)

I live in the DFW area, one of the areas (for some reason) hit hardest by inflation. I've been noticing the tab at the grocery store creeping up more and more. We are currently iced-in with our annual winter storm and I hit the store for some stuff to tide us over. I didn't even have the cart filled to the brim and it was about $250 (and this was at Walmart, not one of the hipster stores with organic everything). I've got a good job but a big family and am really starting to feel the stretch. I can only imagine what those are going through who have to get by on less. A pound of bacon actually cost me less than a carton of eggs. Absolute insanity! The scary thing is that it could actually get much, much worse.

Inflationary pricing has been hitting the South Louisiana Gulf Coast area really bad. I doubt there are many places where it has not been happening.

 

[Pipingntrucking]

Fourth, there hasn't been a new oil refinery built since 1974. This is for a couple reasons: 1) oil companies have no interest in creating a greater supply 2) no citizens/towns want a new refinery in their backyard. Fifth, like gouging in the grocery store, oil companies have reported consistent record-breaking profits every quarter for a while now (too lazy to look it up). Each quarter is a new profit record. Again, that isn't inflation. That's good ol' opportunistic gouging. There are a slew of recordings of oil heads talking about how it is good for them if we're in a slight recession. They aren't going to do anything to help out public matters because it isn't in their best interest. If anything, they're going to slyly contribute to a recession because it better serves their stockholders.

One of the reasons for no new refineries is 2 fold. ECO fanatics ( not the sane ones you can reason with and empathize with....we're talking green peace fanatics). The other in recent times the greenies have overwhelmed the system to where when the "party" in charge changes their investment in discovery and licensing gets shut down and taken from them. Also your #2 . Now the oil company profits is misleading and favored bugaboo of media that tend to lean certain ways especially the current regime in charge. Everyone is so single minded that they think petroleum companies are single market entities. They are not. They have investments into many other markets including you favorite renewables and non petroleum based areas. But they won't tell you that because they've learned your anger and fear drives your vote. Now don't get me wrong. It doesn't let them off the hook completely but a simple search into their investments will lead you down a more informed road.

 

[lraisch]

One of the reasons for no new refineries is 2 fold. ECO fanatics ( not the sane ones you can reason with and empathize with....we're talking green peace fanatics). The other in recent times the greenies have overwhelmed the system to where when the "party" in charge changes their investment in discovery and licensing gets shut down and taken from them. Also your #2 . Now the oil company profits is misleading and favored bugaboo of media that tend to lean certain ways especially the current regime in charge. Everyone is so single minded that they think petroleum companies are single market entities. They are not. They have investments into many other markets including you favorite renewables and non petroleum based areas. But they won't tell you that because they've learned your anger and fear drives your vote. Now don't get me wrong. It doesn't let them off the hook completely but a simple search into their investments will lead you down a more informed road.

Shell reported today, their largest profit in 115 years.

 

[Pipingntrucking]

Shell reported today, their largest profit in 115 years.

Divided by which divisions in the multiple markets its invested in?

 

[Pipingntrucking]

Meaning.....
Surely you don't think that profit is just off of Diesels, Premium, Midgrade, Unleaded and recreational fuels? You do know they have other streams of revenue- right? Even some not directly related to petroleum products.

 

[lraisch]

In the last quarter of 2022, about 2/3 of their revenue came from their gas division. In that time only about 14% of their capital spending was in renewables.
Collectively, the 7 largest oil companies made over $150 billion in profit in just the first three quarters.

 

[warren]

Shell reported today, their largest profit in 115 years.

I'm guessing the shareholders are ecstatic and will properly reward the directors and others. A lot of those profits will be plowed back into the company, searching for new fields, paying all the fees governments require, putting earnings into new fields, research for developing alternatives to oil (no big hurry on that though), and so forth.

There was a time when a billion dollars was a lot of money, not that many years ago either. I wonder how many billions of dollars they risked to get that return? Oil is still a "blue chip!"

 

[lraisch]

I'm sure dividends will be paid, and a lot of stock will be bought back. Not sure about the new fields, given how many leases are currently going unused. Also I understand the British are trying to figure out how they avoided a windfall profit tax.

 

[Pipingntrucking]

I'm sure dividends will be paid, and a lot of stock will be bought back. Not sure about the new fields, given how many leases are currently going unused. Also I understand the British are trying to figure out how they avoided a windfall profit tax.

Not to mention leases don't equal pay. Those are leases to be open for discovery. Not all prove through.

Just want to re iterate. I don't completely disagree with you. Just want to make sure the perspective is there and not buried under click bait, and narratives and forced perspectives. That 2/3's is a good chunk but not ALL of the revenue that the narratives try to suggest. Then you also, to get full picture, look into all the regulations added, subtracted, changed in the past decades to get an idea of what's going on. Oh and add in Phillips isn't the same company it has been in those 115 years. Between acquisition and buy outs that 115 year mark is a bit of mirage.

One of which is like after one of BP's major disasters they had to sell off A LOT of assets both physical and financial to cover the penalties and clean up. One being a lot of their supply depot's got sold to Marathon. I know . Not Phillips 66 but I am headed to bed and can't think of a Phillips issue just yet. Environmental Disaster- absolutely. Financial disaster- absolutely.

 

[greysmoke]

Three years into pandemic-disrupted supply chains, and I'm still seeing shortages here in PA of staple supplies at our nearest big box buy-it-in-bulk store. Things like eggs I understand, what with Avian flu outbreaks. But why is it suddenly so hard to buy milk? A couple of years ago, there was an alcohol shortage that particularly impacted spirits and cheaper wines -- items that were bottled with caps rather than corks. That, I learned, stemmed from a shortage of bottle caps.

I've worked in and consulted to supply chain companies off and on since 1998. While lots of money is being spent on supply chain automation these days, we're still far from resilience. And smooth running supply chains only improve your ability to adapt to shortages in supply materials. Oh well... .just rambling and frustrated over my inability to simply keep the refrigerator properly stocked.

 

[Sam Gamgee]

Three years into pandemic-disrupted supply chains, and I'm still seeing shortages here in PA of staple supplies at our nearest big box buy-it-in-bulk store. Things like eggs I understand, what with Avian flu outbreaks. But why is it suddenly so hard to buy milk? A couple of years ago, there was an alcohol shortage that particularly impacted spirits and cheaper wines -- items that were bottled with caps rather than corks. That, I learned, stemmed from a shortage of bottle caps.

I've worked in and consulted to supply chain companies off and on since 1998. While lots of money is being spent on supply chain automation these days, we're still far from resilience. And smooth running supply chains only improve your ability to adapt to shortages in supply materials. Oh well... .just rambling and frustrated over my inability to simply keep the refrigerator properly stocked.

I’m not as old as some here (48) but never in my lifetime as an American have I seen shortages or empty shelves in grocery stores. I mostly shop at the big WM super center (big family, dollar is the bottom line) and while there are fewer empty shelves than during the scamdemic, the store has never gone back to being fully stocked.

 

[cosmicfolklore]

I’m not as old as some here (48) but never in my lifetime as an American have I seen shortages or empty shelves in grocery stores. I mostly shop at the big WM super center (big family, dollar is the bottom line) and while there are fewer empty shelves than during the scamdemic, the store has never gone back to being fully stocked.

It must be your area, because the shelves stay stocked here... except every time they mention the minute possibility of snow in Alabama. Then the shelves get wiped out. Ha ha.