Dow 38,000

[Briar Lee]

The Dow has reached 38,000, about a month after it hit 37,000.

It’s been a full sixty years now since I heard an old man in the barbershop despair that a quarter was no longer going to be made of silver and predict the bankruptcy of the United States of America.

On the way home I asked my father whaf made that old man so bitter, and he said he sold all his hogs and the market’s up, but the main reason is he’s too old. Old men are scared.

The Dow hit 800 in 1964 and according to the inflation calculators it ought to be just under 8,000 today.

Not counting sixty years of dividends.

It’s a bad bet to bet against the future of the United States of America.

Why do so many people do that?

 

[sham]

I do not reciprocate trust in the green pixels that form lines on my screen

 

[captpat]

Woo Hoo, keep going baby.

 

[cosmicfolklore]

It’s a bad bet to bet against the future of the United States of America.

Why do so many people do that?

People only want affirmations of their beliefs. And, unfortunately, people believe is stupid stuff.
And, when you put truth in their faces, they won't believe it, no matter how compelling the evidence.

 

[Servant King]

 

[sablebrush52]

It’s a bad bet to bet against the future of the United States of America.

Why do so many people do that?

Because it's easier to sell fear than optimism. You can make a ton of money and gain a lot of power selling fear and the US is inundated with opportunistic fearmongers on social media, in politics, in the pulpit, whatever gives them money and power, power of course being much better than money. Sell fear, and sell yourself as the solution. Make the play big enough and literally millions of people will anoint you their savior. There's a long history of people doing just that. It always ends badly for the followers, and they rarely learn anything from it

As for markets, they are only partly run on rational decisions. There's a lot of emotion, primarily greed and fear, which is recognized in the fact that indexes calculating both fear and greed are now part of the nexus of tools used for making analytical investment decisions.

Truth is, nobody really has much more than a clue. There is so much conflicting punditry from the investment community that one can come to no other conclusion. Tea leaves may be just as useful.

 

[alaskanpiper]

“Someone is sitting in the shade today because they planted a tree a long time ago”

This quote by the Oracle has always stuck with me. I invest in little else than long term diversified growth.

 

[Briar Lee]

That old man was proud to declare how he’d volunteered to ride with Teddy Roosevelt up San Juan Hill. His father and my great grandfather had both rode headlong into thousands of warriors at Broadus Montana, with Company M of the Twelfth Missouri Cavalry in September 1865.

He told of sending his hogs into to woods to eat acorns during the drought of 1901.

And he looked at me and said he felt sorry for the children, because they’d never know when America was truly great.

A haircut was a dollar and a half and my father paid two dollars and left a fifty cent tip.

The wealthiest old soldier in the neighborhood would pay a dollar and two quarters and moan they weren’t going to be silver the next year.

And the only thing that sort of scares me even he, was one hundred per cent for the public schools.

He wouldn’t be, today.

The sons of the pioneer farmers today in Humansville Missouri play in streets littered with dollar plastic airline whiskey bottles, and their fat mothers yell at them to watch out for old men like me idling up the streets.

They’ll be fine, so long as they go to school.

 

[andrew]

The market is sp irrational right now there's no way to justify it in terms of P/E ratio, pretty much any kind of common sense indicator. It's basically propped up by a few companies running on AI hopium. I agree bad idea to bet against the USA long term, but none of this adds up.

 

[brian64]

Never has there been a greater disconnect between Wall St and Main St.

 

[sablebrush52]

The market is sp irrational right now there's no way to justify it in terms of P/E ratio, pretty much any kind of common sense indicator. It's basically propped up by a few companies running on AI hopium. I agree bad idea to bet against the USA long term, but none of this adds up.

It doesn't have to add up. Look at Bitcoin. Someone made up a currency, set up "virtual" mining, and we're off to the races. It's not backed by anything but an idea whose value is in the tech, not in the tokens, but the tokens are what the monkeys understand and value, so major financial interests are playing this Ponzi scheme until it explodes. It may be the most lipsticked pig in history.

 

[sablebrush52]

Never has there been a greater disconnect between Wall St and Main St.

Oh, pleeze. Wall St and Main St have never been connected. Remember all those "panics" of the late 19th century? Fisk and Gould? How about 90% margin and a small result called the Great Depression?

 

[andrew]

It doesn't have to add up. Look at Bitcoin. Someone made up a currency, set up "virtual" mining, and we're off to the races. It's not backed by anything but an idea whose value is in the tech, not in the tokens, but the tokens are what the monkeys understand and value, so major financial interests are playing this Ponzi scheme until it explodes. It may be the most lipsticked pig in history.

It doesn't have to add up until it does, and then that's when the market crashes. Last year was all doom and gloom and stocks had their best year in a long time. This year seems like people are ready to buy at all time highs which to me means big players going to dump soon. Me personally I have a small position in bitcoin, it's ouperformed any asset I've owned before going from a 65-80% return and inbetween on the ups and downs and I started buying last january. Overall I think crypto is here to stay, banks are using it, visa and MasterCard use it, Microsoft, it's kind of like the early days of the Internet. Brave souls who said theres something to this and invested in Google and stuff have life changing wealth and all the same stuff was said about the internet. And look what were using right now as we type this out. I understand the skepticism and if you're close to retirement its too volatile to have but a small speculative position for fun. But when you have someone like Michael Saylor explain how his fund researched everything from soybean futures and everything between and came to the conclusion bitcoin is the best investment available it puts some weight to it for me. I was I the crypto is a scam camp until last year. I'm at about a 65% roi right now a year later, it was 90% but it's very volatile obviously, but long term I believe it's here to stay.

 

[sablebrush52]

It doesn't have to add up until it does, and then that's when the market crashes. Last year was all doom and gloom and stocks had their best year in a long time. This year seems like people are ready to buy at all time highs which to me means big players going to dump soon. Me personally I have a small position in bitcoin, it's ouperformed any asset I've owned before going from a 65-80% return and inbetween on the ups and downs and I started buying last january. Overall I think crypto is here to stay, banks are using it, visa and MasterCard use it, Microsoft, it's kind of like the early days of the Internet. Brave souls who said theres something to this and invested in Google and stuff have life changing wealth and all the same stuff was said about the internet. And look what were using right now as we type this out. I understand the skepticism and if you're close to retirement its too volatile to have but a small speculative position for fun. But when you have someone like Michael Saylor explain how his fund researched everything from soybean futures and everything between and came to the conclusion bitcoin is the best investment available it puts some weight to it for me. I was I the crypto is a scam camp until last year. I'm at about a 65% roi right now a year later, it was 90% but it's very volatile obviously, but long term I believe it's here to stay.

We're not quite at all time highs, but we're certainly way up there, which is why a lot of money is sitting off to the side. Watch for the melt up and the blow out.

Personally, I'm not a timer, just a boring long term ETF kind of guy with one particular stock fund that's done well consistently.

Real estate was better than any of it, returning a average of 60% per year, until the last project that ran afoul of the pandemic and the "Mansion" tax that's put a serious damper on the Los Angeles property circus. In the meantime we built some pretty stunning homes and gave employment to a very talented crew.

Bitcoin may be here to stay, but to do so it will get regulated and that may dampen the volatility and probably the profitability. In the meantime heavy money will be playing it to their advantage, not to the advantage of the average "retail" investor. It certainly isn't a currency, nor any sort of store of value. It's the kind of investment that's likely to collapse if there's a serious economic pullback.

 

[warren]

Playing the market can be risky, seriously risky if you are day trading or otherwise wanting to make money fast. Just remember the market has a grand history of rising over time/ "Blue chips", long term are practical for most people through investment groups if you are willing to relinquish direct control. Buy low and plan to hang on for the ride, it'll be up and down but, 20-30-40 years from today it'll be above today's numbers and you'll have some taxes to pay when you take your profits. This is a bit of an over-simplification, there is due diligence to do and advice to be sought but, it worked for me. And, remember, owing taxes is a good thing. it means you are making money. And, getting money back at tax time means you lent the government money, interest free, over the previous year. Why did you do that?

One good rule to follow if you are going to invest; don't invest more than you can afford to lose and keep your risk at a level you are comfortable with. Due diligence! Do the work! Research and only seek advice from people you trust, who know your circumstances and, are successful. Free advice is usually only worth what you paid for it. This is particularly true for TV financial pundits. Listen to them, note their advice, check back six months or a year later to see how good their advice was. Check past predictions. There is good and bad advice available everywhere. Vet various sources before deciding on your own investing strategies. Never panic when the market crashes, you are in it for the long run.

Buy low, sell high! Not always easy to do. Never wait for the bottom. You'll miss it most likely. The same applies to waiting for the high to sell. Don't be greedy unless you have money to burn. Which apparently most here do.

And, please note, the above contains advice which is posted free! Free advice! Wow! What is it worth?

 

[karam]

The market is sp irrational right now there's no way to justify it in terms of P/E ratio, pretty much any kind of common sense indicator. It's basically propped up by a few companies running on AI hopium. I agree bad idea to bet against the USA long term, but none of this adds up.

The S&P500’s p/e is what, 25? That’s just 5 points above what’s supposed to be carefully optimistic. Of course I know that the S&P500's growth is driven by the Magnificent Seven but what's the alternative for someone looking to build savings for the future? Cash? HYSAs/CDs/MMFs? Bonds?
I only started investing 2 year ago, so one year was a net zero, and the next was a spectacular bull. I am not too comfortable with either but see it as good mental training.

I think p/e ratios considered reasonable (15-20) may be shifted upwards, we'll see.
I went back and found p/e ratios for Japan in the 80s-90s and .com in late 90s and they were spectacularly crazy, in the hundreds, while EVEN nVidia has a p/e ratio of just under 80 today. The whole Nikkei 225 index had a p/e of nearly 70, investors had to wait 30 years to start getting their money back - likely a lot died before they ever did. Diversification solves a big part of this problem. The Greek index was/is so bad that people who invested between 1998 and 2008 will likely never get their money back.

I had a position in nVidia which I sold after it doubled, just because I wanted to prove a point to my wife that investing is more than "looking at the numbers". But the point remains, leading up to the .com crash there were companies with p/e ratios of 200-500, which in plain English means they were little more than an idea sketched on used toilet paper valued at billions.

I do believe the Mag Seven are overvalued, but not THAT BAD. nVidia is not even the most expensive in terms of p/e (Amazon is), but MS, Google, Apple, Meta, Tesla are hovering between 30-40. Amazon is the other very expensive one but still at 80 p/e. Even Buffett's own stock is not a value stock right now, yet I am eagerly buying it
Learning about and getting into low cost diversified index investing has been a life changer for me, without a shred of exaggeration.

 

[Briar Lee]

Elza Hopper, the old soldier in the barbershop, was 18 when he advanced up San Jaun Hill in 1898 and 95 when he died in 1975.

The Sons of Union Veterans had a crack team of bagpipers play the Gerryowen and he was carefully borne to rest, by six young men, me among them. All the pallbearers were descended from the troopers of the 12th Missouri cavalry.

Elza was the last true son, of the 12th Missouri, who traded their Spencer rifles and Colt revolvers for plowshares, and broke the prairies around Humansville.

Home | Sons of Union Veterans of the Civil War

suvcw.org

The Dow had been 800 in 1964 and rose to 1000 in 1972 and fell almost to 600 in 1975.

Elza Hopper’s 200 acre farm was the first in our neighborhood to sell for $300 an acre.

Had his widow invested the $60,000 at Dow 600 in 1975, not counting dividends their heirs would have 3.8 million today.

At $7,000 an acre that farm is only worth 1.4 million today,,;,if they could have kept it.

Why an index fund is such a good investment is is that it’s passive.

You never lose a lot of money selling hogs at the wrong time.

 

[Simmerdown☕️]

️

 

[frozenchurchwarden]

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

After 1930 it took another 30 years for the economy to recover to the same position in 1960.
After 1965 it took another 30 years for the economy to recover to the same position in 1995.

History repeats itself.

 

[Simmerdown☕️]

Live below your means & when when “rough seas” approach…you’ll be more apt to brave the ️. Live high on the hog and when the firestorm happens…you’re likely to get cooked. . This very simple lesson often wont have you driving a Lamborghini on South Beach …but’ll it likely keep you from riding the to hell and gone if the market pulls a mulligan. ️