COVID-19 Statistics Tracker

[olkofri]

Trackers are no longer reliable when countries decide to stop publishing their sick counts:

Sweden to Stop Publishing 'Not Important' Coronavirus Numbers

The Swedish Public Health Authority has stated it will no longer be updating exact numbers of coronavirus infections.

www.breitbart.com

 

[brian64]

In the history of "pandemics" Covid19 is barely a blip on the radar:

Visualizing the History of Pandemics

The history of pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) event, ranked by their impact on human life.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[beefeater33]

In the history of "pandemics" Covid19 is barely a blip on the radar:

Funny how its THE MOST IMPORTANT THING nowadays..... Hardly the Plague, but you would think from watching the news that we're all doomed.............
Sometimes I think that everyone is NUTZ.................

 

[Chasing Embers]

Sometimes I think that everyone is NUTZ.................

+1

 

[olkofri]

We're all gunna dieeee!!!

 

[lukasstrifeson]

In the history of "pandemics" Covid19 is barely a blip on the radar:

Visualizing the History of Pandemics

The history of pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) event, ranked by their impact on human life.

www.visualcapitalist.com

View attachment 22741

Oof, prime example as to why not all infographics are helpful.

The Black Death (Plague, whatever you wanna call it) happened over 200 years all across Europe and this is a cumulative number of total deaths over that time. The Coronavirus representation is a "blip" but that's data for just 3 months. To compare the data this way is completely disingenuous to the information being represented.

I'm not trying to say this or that about the coronavirus, but I am just saying that the infographic does not back up what you're trying to suggest.

 

[ssjones]

Guess time will tell.
Like Mark Twain wrote: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.";

 

[timt]

Seriously scratching my head about all the panic and hysteria. All I know is that people seldom, if ever, make good decisions while in this state of mind. Go ahead and roll up the sidewalks, pull the blinds, buy a year's supply of toilet paper and sell your investments when they're down 20% because, well, maybe.... Smart. See, there I go being a heartless dick again.

Probably an over-active tin foil hat on my part I suppose, but often times someone benefits from the dumb decisions made by others. Now who could possibly benefit from all this chaos?..... Nah, the world has surely gone nuts. That's all.

 

[brian64]

Oof, prime example as to why not all infographics are helpful.

The Black Death (Plague, whatever you wanna call it) happened over 200 years all across Europe and this is a cumulative number of total deaths over that time. The Coronavirus representation is a "blip" but that's data for just 3 months. To compare the data this way is completely disingenuous to the information being represented.

I'm not trying to say this or that about the coronavirus, but I am just saying that the infographic does not back up what you're trying to suggest.

Yeah I understand your point, and of course that must be factored in.

But IMO, based on all of the "official" stats of infection rates, effects on age and pre-existing conditions/immune-compromised patients, etc, and deaths...in comparison to the yearly "ordinary" flu...the response to this is way out of proportion. Also, there are some reports now saying things are essentially back to business as usual in China, although I have no idea if that is accurate or not.

But in my view, the only thing that makes a bit of sense about this is the idea that it may have come from bats...because the hysteria over it is batshit crazy IMO.

But as Al said, only time will tell.

 

[mso489]

If the medical and public health people were blasé about this and not talking about it or taking any action, there would certainly be uproar and arrests. In the good old days, folks got eaten by a pack of hyena, life expectancy was 25, and if you were 27 when you got eaten, you were running lucky.

 

[lukasstrifeson]

Yeah I understand your point, and of course that must be factored in.

But IMO, based on all of the "official" stats of infection rates, effects on age and pre-existing conditions/immune-compromised patients, etc, and deaths...in comparison to the yearly "ordinary" flu...the response to this is way out of proportion. Also, there are some reports now saying things are essentially back to business as usual in China, although I have no idea if that is accurate or not.

But in my view, the only thing that makes a bit of sense about this is the idea that it may have come from bats...because the hysteria over it is batshit crazy IMO.

But as Al said, only time will tell.

Sometimes it's okay to just admit you're wrong.

Let's do some factoring in. Even just going by your infographic 3 months vs 200 years, that's ~400x. Of course you can argue the specifics but that's the general order of magnitude we are dealing with here. That 'blip' is already much more concerning.

Now let's talk actual numbers:

Whatever the Coronavirus ends up being, the "official" numbers right now suggest it is at least 6x more contagious than the "ordinary flu" (that means each infected patient will infect 6x more people than the flu does) and conservatively speaking 10x as deadly (meaning it kills 10x more people who are diagnosed with it than the flue does every year). This is a cumulative of information from a number of sources across the world, but I am using US numbers.

Flu in the US (2019):

490,600 - hospitalizations
34,200 - deaths

That's with a functioning vaccine in place for the flu. Let me remind you CoVID-19 right now does not have a vaccine.

Extrapolating the numbers, that's at least ~3,000,000 hospitalizations (which is a small fraction of actually cases) and the likelihood of millions of deaths.

Again, I'm not trying to say this or that about the virus and how you should prepare for yourself, but I'm just pointing out the misunderstanding of certain facts and maths in this case.

 

[Bowie]

I heard a decent analogy on the radio: if your neighbor posts on Faceborg that a grizzly bear is wandering around the neighborhood, you don't walk outside and proclaim that you will be okay because car wrecks kill more people many every year than bear attacks.

 

[brian64]

Sometimes it's okay to just admit you're wrong.

Sometimes it's okay to just disagree without arrogance.

Flu in the US (2019):

490,600 - hospitalizations
34,200 - deaths

Yes, my point as well.

That's with a functioning vaccine in place for the flu.

We can agree to disagree on that too...the annual flu vac is a total joke IMO.

Extrapolating the numbers

Yeah, I agree that you're doing a lot of extrapolating.

If there's any bottom line, it's that you, like most people, have a lot of faith and confidence in the medical establishment and the political "authorities" on such issues.

I do not.

 

[Akousticplyr]

I heard a decent analogy on the radio: if your neighbor posts on Faceborg that a grizzly bear is wandering around the neighborhood, you don't walk outside and proclaim that you will be okay because car wrecks kill more people many every year than bear attacks.

True, but if you catch a grizzly bear you die 100% of the time. You catch the Kung Flu, you may not even know it.

(We need a sarcasm font)

 

[olkofri]

We can agree to disagree on that too...the annual flu vac is a total joke IMO.

It is. A doctor once reported that it gives a person ~19% protection against the flu, since it doesn't cover all the strains that are out there. Also note that not all of us get a yearly shot: I never do, not even after catching the flu at the end of AD 2018.

If there's any bottom line, it's that you, like most people, have a lot of faith and confidence in the medical establishment and the political "authorities" on such issues.

I do not.

I don't either. One of the greatest false assumptions is 'scientists can't/don't lie'.

 

[cshubhra]

There is a lotus in the pond. Every day it grows to double its size. On the 30th day it covers the whole surface of the pond. On which day it covered half the surface of the pond?

If you understand why this riddle is relevant to this discussion and can answer it correctly, you have an idea of the danger of a pandemic.

Of course there is a right balance between panic and indifference. Make sure you all arrive at the right balance from your point of view

 

[Chasing Embers]

On which day it covered half the surface of the pond?

The 29th day.

 

[brian64]

On which day it covered half the surface of the pond?

Sometime long after the toilet paper ran out.

Now for a more serious response to your lotus analogy:

It is flawed in many ways in which it does not at all reflect the dynamics of pathogens and how they spread...and how human beings are, and are not, infected and affected by them...especially on a global scale.

But it is a very good illustration of the mass hysterical perception that the general public has about this current so-called pandemic.

 

[cshubhra]

You can put more parameters to it .... but every model is of exponential growth. What is your model? Instead of telling it does not behave that way, show what is the model of the spread?

Sometime long after the toilet paper ran out.

Now for a more serious response to your lotus analogy:

It is flawed in many ways in which it does not at all reflect the dynamics of pathogens and how they spread...and how human beings are, and are not, infected and affected by them...especially on a global scale.

But it is a very good illustration of the mass hysterical perception that the general public has about this current so-called pandemic.

 

[brian64]

You can put more parameters to it .... but every model is of exponential growth. What is your model? Instead of telling it does not behave that way, show what is the model of the spread?

There are many, many factors that influence and determine how people are affected.

Simply following common sense precautions of hand washing, not touching your face, etc. goes a long way.

Most people with modern diets are deficient in vital nutrients, especially this time of year with Vit D in particular. And even people who take supplements mostly take cheap synthetic versions that don't do much good. Get some high quality D & C and you'll be far ahead of the curve.

A pathogen only sickens a certain percentage of those exposed to it, and it depends mostly on the strength of the individual's immune system along with pre-existing conditions they may have...especially respiratory...just as with the "ordinary" flu. And I still see no justification for treating this particular bug any differently...but that is just my opinion...feel free to disregard it.

Point being, it does not spread evenly all across the "pond" as in your analogy...there are spots of it here and there representing those most affected by it due to their susceptibility and/or lack of precautions. And even among those who do get sick with it there is a wide variance of severity.

Again...all just my opinion. But my opinion on medical issues already greatly differed from the "mainstream" long before this "covid19" hysteria. So if you adhere to the "official" line on such things, then anything I could say is nonsense.