Frankly, I would cellar everything you currently smoke that you enjoy. IMO, "cellaring" and "aging" are not necessarily synonymous. I cellar with the idea that some blends will improve over time, some will remain virtually unchanged, and some will likely -- after 20 or so years in the tin -- fade a bit. But even in the latter case, I fully expect to still enjoy them. And I'm guaranteeing myself -- barring catastrophe to my cellar -- a stockpile of tobacco I know I'll enjoy for the rest of my life.
If you're purely focusing on tobaccos that will improve with age, your best bets are those that are Virginia-dominant. I would expect oriental-forward blends to remain virtually unchanged over time; I've never noticed any change, one way or the other, where these blends are concerned. Latakia is known to mellow over time; that doesn't mean it turns "bad," just that you'll experience its presence differently. But even with that "mellowing," I would expect a latakia-heavy blend that is great now to be at least very good in 30-40 years' time, assuming it has been stored appropriately.
As I said, though: If you enjoy it, cellar it. The only kind of blend I would have doubts about for long-term aging -- and by that, I mean 20+ years -- would be latakia blends with a heavy proportion of Syrian leaf. Pease's Syrian blends aside -- which were truly remarkable -- virtually every other Syrian latakia blend I've had in the last eight years has been quite soft and mild, without much actual Syrian character. If those mellow even more in 20+ years, the latakia might disappear altogether. (Or it might not. Honestly: Who knows? Since the last Syrian crops were harvested in the late 1990s/early 2000s, no one has cellared this for any length of time yet.)
Bob
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