Once a Tobacco Tastes Good To You, Is It More Or Less Likely To Again?

Good question. I'm going to do what a few hate and say that "I've only been smoking seriously for a little over a year" and what I've found is that it depends. It depends on the pipe, the time of day, the ambient temperature, humidity, how long the tin's been opened, my mood, the alignment of the stars, the amount of hair my cat shed last night...you get the idea. Sometimes a blend pairs with a pipe and will be pretty consistent but most of the time, I'm forever chasing the flavor I fell in love with from a tobacco.
Cue the "ask 10 pipers, get 12 answers" cliche.

Good question... and the variability of taste is one reason that a lot of tobacco reviewers don't write their reviews until they've gone through a fair bit of a particular blend. An individual bowl may be significantly better (or worse) than average. Variables other than tobacco may have an effect as well - a specific pipe may, for some reason, showcase a particular blend to great advantage or disadvantage.
Once you know what a particular blend is capable of, you're possibly more likely to expect or hope for that experience when you try it again. I've been fairly fortunate - most of the tobaccos I've liked right off the bat have continued to be good smokes, and the ones I haven't been as impressed with have still improved somewhat over time as my technique improves... although there are a couple I probably won't be purchasing again, based on my reaction so far. Dunno if it's something I'm more likely to "get" as I keep trying, but I suspect that if you've had one really good smoke from a new blend, you'll probably have another... eventually, if you get all the other variables to line up again.

I think of it a lot like I do about disc golf. The more I throw my discs the more they change from hitting trees or the ground and they never fly exactly the same as when they were brand new, but that doesn't mean I enjoy it any less.

My view is that if you liked a blend the first time you smoked it, you'll like it again, unless your tastes change totally. I just tried two yesterday in the same pipe - to eliminate the pipe variable - and the first was awful, the second I'm adding to my favorites list and will buy more.
The first may improve with aging/mixing/whatever, but there are so many other good ones to sample, that I ask myself, "Why waste time?" The other side of this is that one loses the variety is the spice of life factor if one settles on just a few blends. It's a crap shoot in that regard, but at least you call the shots.

I suppose I would say it is more likely to taste good. Once ive figured out the optimal pipe/moisture/pack setup to make a mix taste good then I can just repeat it the next time.

I'm all about first impressions. If I did everything right as far as prepping and choosing the proper pipe for it, and it tastes like something from the compost pile, that's usually where that blend will end .....

I'm not a piper, but I do smoke a pipe.
What tasted good in one pipe might not taste good in a different pipe.
What tasted good on Sunday evening, might not taste good on Wednesday evening.
Now that Global Warming has returned to Portland for this week, my Latakia blends are taking a back seat to my codger burleys and fruit aromatics. Still dislike tasteless virginia flakes.

If it tasted good once, it'll taste good again, depending on if you're doing it right. I'd written off a bunch of blends, mainly flakes before I'd realized I wasn't drying them properly. Now flakes are my favorite smoke.

Zekest said

Still dislike tasteless virginia flakes.

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Some day you will fail to understand what you just said.

I liked what teufelhund said, but I would take it a step or two further. If you find a certain flavor during an especially good bowl, and you find that flavor especially satisfying, then achieving that flavor would be the tee in disc golf. Your goal being to get your disc as close to the tee as possible, as often as possible. The more you play a certain tee (smoke a certain tobacco), the better your results will be. Part of it will be muscle memory, part will be knowing the conditions you're playing in (wind, humidity, etc). Part will be knowing your discs. The more you come to know a certain pipe, and a certain blend, and how each reacts in various atmospheres, the more you'll be able to control the variables that dictate how close you come to your goal.
I say this because, as I believe I've said before, I smoke (or smoked), MacBaren's Navy Flake countless more times than any other tobacco. I know this blend well enough to know that my best smoke of it will be in a corncob pipe, on a bright sonny day, mid-afternoon, driving down the highway with the window down. Preferably after having done some kind of physical labor. I also know it well enough to know that its ALMOST as satisfying at home on the couch, in a briar, watching a movie, with the air-conditioning on.
I've been smoking a lot of LNF lately, and I can truthfully say that while I don't know this blend as well as the aforementioned, I can achieve what I'm looking for MOST the time.
As the old saying goes Gentlemen- practice makes perfect.

the variability of taste is one reason that a lot of tobacco reviewers don't write their reviews until they've gone through a fair bit of a particular blend. An individual bowl may be significantly better (or worse) than average. Variables other than tobacco may have an effect as well - a specific pipe may, for some reason, showcase a particular blend to great advantage or disadvantage.

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This is right on the money. Unless a blend is absolutely gawd-awful - and I have been smoking long enough that I don't run into many of those - I always try a blend in multiple pipes before I come to a conclusion about it. It is often the same idea I had about it at first, but it might be one of those blends that smokes significantly better in one pipe than in another. This does happen.

Or how phrased differntly, are the bowls that taste great outliers?

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In my experiences once I settle on a blend (I only smoke two blends at a time) I usually get varying degrees of a good smoke. Since I don't change blends frequently I gain an intimate knowledge of the tobacco and how it smokes but still I can't explain why my smoke varies as much as it does, it's all good but sometimes it's just better, like sex

Mostly, if a tobacco is good the first time, it stays that way for me. The variables that have affected this in a few cases, but very

few, are blends that change once a tin is opened -- they can get better or worse in about equal numbers for me; sometimes when

tobacco dries out too much, it will bite more; sometimes when damp tobacco dries out, it bites less and the flavor improves quite

a bit. If tobacco is stored outside a jar or other airtight container, it can decline. Sometimes this happens with pouch tobacco

stashed absentmindedly. But usually, good the first time is good every time. I tried an English blend at a grand pipe shop on

Manhattan, and wondered if it would taste as good again at home; it does! Every bit. This doesn't mean you can get in a rut. I

think tobacco is improved by rotating it. In my case, taking a day or two (or several) break in pipe smoking can amp up the

taste and fragrance experience quite a bit. I tried this on a thread, and most pipers don't like a break much.

I don't know what the sam hell those guys are talking about. Golf , frizbee, tee, pipe pairings all foreign to me.

However, when I smoke a blend for the first few times , I generally can decide if its a keeper. There have been very few that I liked up front but later decided I dont like this stuff. All of them have been Va/pers. The va/pers are hit and miss for me. I may like it this time hate it the next, and yet have it again in a few days and enjoy it. I know weird right. Ok that being said for the most part my appreciation only grows. I started enjoying aros more now when before ....no dice. But as I tried lighter aros and found them to be enjoyable, more aros have become more enjoyable. Now as for lats , well, I liked the first one and have ever been enjoying lat blends heavy and light lat blends from Froggy to Commonwealth yum yum. Now straight virginia blends yuck tastic. They smell like cigarettes to me and taste like alfalfa pellets. Yes I grew up on a farm and did taste the feed that I fed the animals, and that molasses grain stuf for horses aint half bad. Ok ok, back on track. My point being it really is going to be up to you and your taste and acquisition there of. It may well be for you as it is for me. Some may turn you right on all the time some maybe hit and miss, and some may grow on you. And that my friend keeps me comming back and trying new and exciting things.

Keep smoking my friend and keep it interesting.

When I try a new blend and enjoy it, I start looking for the perfect pipe pairing. Once that has been accomplished I get very consistent great smokes out of that particular blend. I have learned that consistent prep will make for consistent smokes.