Canadian Dollar to Drop by the End of 2013
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We just sold our ski condo near Kamloops, B.C. Glad to get those C$ while they're still worth something!
Thanks for posting the story.
Funny thing is, when I was a kid, the Canadian dollar was always at about $1.10 U.S., and we just figured it would go on that way forever.
Thanks for posting the story.
Funny thing is, when I was a kid, the Canadian dollar was always at about $1.10 U.S., and we just figured it would go on that way forever.
I'm not going to sit around and risk a "possible" drop to 90 cents, as I'm sure they weren't projecting the US dollar to do what it did before the whole Goldman Sachs thing happened, I remember the Ca dollar was something like 71 cents US about 25 years ago or so. I can't see the Canadian dollar staying this high for much longer. Projected is usually alot less than actual, as it will probably go down to more like 85 cents on the dollar US. Good for you to sell at the time you did, Canadian real estate is huge right now, pretty much all the houses in my city have pretty much doubled in value in the last 10 years.
The Fed. reserve, the legal counterfeiting operation. I love how America has recalled all their money 2x's now I think, taken out the gold and silver in it and then recirculated it, and yet the people still trust the government thinking that they have the people's best interests at hand.
Much like the experts in the article, I am of the view that a 90 cent dollar would be good thing for the Canadian manufacturing base (not to mention a good thing for my business, but I digress).
I do find it funny now that the experts are now saying that the Canadian currency is going down in value and the US currency is rising. For the last 5 years I have been investing 80% of my investment portfolio in US stocks. My broker kept telling me that I was crazy and was going to get hammered on the currency exchange rates. Now I am making out like a bandit. US stock prices are rising, and because I am heavily invested in the US dollar by virtue of my ownership of those stocks, I am also making a killing by virtue of the rising US dollar.
I do find it funny now that the experts are now saying that the Canadian currency is going down in value and the US currency is rising. For the last 5 years I have been investing 80% of my investment portfolio in US stocks. My broker kept telling me that I was crazy and was going to get hammered on the currency exchange rates. Now I am making out like a bandit. US stock prices are rising, and because I am heavily invested in the US dollar by virtue of my ownership of those stocks, I am also making a killing by virtue of the rising US dollar.
Actually I wasn't hit that badly. You have to look at stock prices over the long term. As long as you buy based on sound fundamentals and are well diversified you will do well. I'm not a guy who checks my portfolio every day.
Duckfat, you have to be careful for sure. There are however a lot of US companies that in my view are undervalued.
Another observation is that when the Canadian dollar goes down, many border communities in the US suffer. Anyone on here from the Buffalo region will know what I'm talking about.
Another observation is that when the Canadian dollar goes down, many border communities in the US suffer. Anyone on here from the Buffalo region will know what I'm talking about.
Yes, my point is that that was the high. We are a long way from that high (24% off, the last time I looked). In any event, you have to be careful what you buy. I follow the Buffet-Munger theory - that is, I look at 5 things:
1. companies with a track record showing that they can consistently grow their revenue and earnings (look at last 5 years)
2. companies that have one or more competitive advantages - this is important in predicting whether they can maintain or even expand their profit margin while growing their business.
3. companies that incur little debt while growing their business
4. look at value based on PEPG - that is, their P/E ratio divided by the average growth rate of their EBITDA over the past five years
5. companies that are buying back their own stock - this shows confidence and that management believes their stock is undervalued
1. companies with a track record showing that they can consistently grow their revenue and earnings (look at last 5 years)
2. companies that have one or more competitive advantages - this is important in predicting whether they can maintain or even expand their profit margin while growing their business.
3. companies that incur little debt while growing their business
4. look at value based on PEPG - that is, their P/E ratio divided by the average growth rate of their EBITDA over the past five years
5. companies that are buying back their own stock - this shows confidence and that management believes their stock is undervalued
I bought my kids Apple at 170 and sold it at 550. I wish I had sold it when it was over 700.
I have held GE for awhile and it has done very well.
Among US energy players, I do own Haliburton stock.
I have held GE for awhile and it has done very well.
Among US energy players, I do own Haliburton stock.
Duckfat, the reason Apple is borrowing to do stock buy backs is primarily because of the wonky US tax system. If they repatriate the hoards of cash they have overseas back to the US they will pay a hefty rate of tax on it. Canada has a far friendlier tax system for our multinationals - a canadian multinational that repatriates cash back to Canada will not pay any incremental tax on those earnings (provided the income was earned from an active business carried on in a country that is not a tax haven). Because of the approach the US takes, it makes far more sense for Apple to borrow to do the stock buy back, leave the cash offshore rather than repatriate it, and then get an interest deduction for the borrowed funds. Nevertheless, the cash apple is borrowing (as large as it seems to us - the largest bond offering in history) is peanuts compared to the cash they have.
I agree with you about the average guy being underinvested. When I start to see those folks moving into the market en masse, then I will be leaving it, lol.
I agree with you about the average guy being underinvested. When I start to see those folks moving into the market en masse, then I will be leaving it, lol.
I wouldn't buy a stock simply because they are doing a buyback - that is but one factor. Still, before a company does a buy back, they need to be confident that, in their view (and in the view of their financial advisors), that the stock is undervalued. If they aren't confident, the board could be sued. Not determinative, as I said, but an important piece of information that should be thrown into the mix and weighed accordingly.
I gave up on the stock market years ago, I will take my 14% in private lending and have no headaches. I think the market has been manipulated for years and just don't trust it. I made some good coin back in the dot.com era and then decided to play it safe. I just don't have the stomach for the fluctuations.
I remember going to Montreal and the exchange rate was 1.5 Canadian to the US dollar, it was nice.
I remember going to Montreal and the exchange rate was 1.5 Canadian to the US dollar, it was nice.
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