The underlying physics suggests a possible mechanism. On top of that, many of us have one or two pipes where the fit is somewhat loose and notice that it does tighten up when smoking. Whether from heat, or moisture, we can't really say. Probably some combination of both. But, enough observation to indicate that the effect might be real. What we cannot, so far, determine is whether these small, but non-zero, dimensional changes significantly affect the damage rate when taking apart and reassembling a warm pipe.
I am willing to run the tests and collect and analyze the data. Because the cracking of a shank is a somewhat rare event, I would need to do many, many trials of both cold and warm pipes. Of course, I don't have enough pipes pipes for statistically meaningful results, so everyone here gets to contribute by sending me a pipe. Preferably a Dunhill or a Castello, but pre-Cadogan era Comoy's (especially Blue Riband's) would also be acceptable. Basket pipes, because they are lower grade briar, might be exceptionally prone to cracking and that would skew the data, so you understand the need to stick to quality briar. For the sake of good science.
I'll disassemble and reassemble all of them while cold and note the failure rate. Then, I'll smoke each pipe and, while it is warm, disassemble and reassemble and note the failure rate. Depending on the results, I may have to smoke these pipes many times, so those who can't send a pipe can contribute by sending some tobacco, for the sake of science. (I am partial to Early Morning Pipe, Black Shag, and Frog Morton). Finally, I'll run some statistics to figure out if the difference is significant and report back to the community.
Yes, that's the kind of guy I am: willing to sacrifice for science and for the betterment of pipe smokers everywhere. I'll watch my mail delivery every day in anticipation of everyone sending a pipe (or some tobacco).
BTW, I'm sure all will understand that the postage to return all of these pipes would be prohibitive, so you'll just have to consider these donations to science and the greater good.