Zombie Apocalypse or what?

[didache]

Hi all
First of all, many thanks to all of you in making me feel so welcome in my first couple of months here. It is much appreciated, especially after a rather bad experience in a 'similar' forum. Thank you.
Now, one of the things I have noticed in my short time here is that there are rather a lot of posts worrying about the demise of well-known brands, the machinations of the health lobby in government, tightening regulation about transport of tobacco, and so on.
Clearly, our hobby is on the decline and well on its way to becoming a niche activity, if it isn't already. Pipe smokers react to all this in different ways of course, with some of us reasoning that there will be pipe tobacco available for a long time, albeit reduced in variety.
There is another group though which works on the basis of stocking up a supply - sometimes a pretty vast supply that would make some tobacco shops jealous. When I read threads about this I get a mental image of those guys in Montana etc who stock up on ammo, oil, tinned food, etc waiting for the government to take away their guns / the zombie apocalypse / the return of the Lord (delete whichever is not applicable).
Now, please don't think I am criticising anyone - we all make our own choices and I respect yours as I expect you to respect mine. Stock up if you wish (I have about 2-3 kilos myself which most people would regard as excessive). So please don't be offended or annoyed.
But I wonder if maybe a little perspective is required? Sure, Dunhill and some others may go the way of the dodo, yes there will be restrictions on postage of tobacco, and it may well be that in 20 or 30 years down the line tobacco consumption may be a memory.
However, there really doesn't seem to be any problem for any of us in getting pretty well as much pipeweed as we want, and in huge variety too. You could even say we are in a golden age in some respects.
Can we keep the whole issue in perspective?
Just my opinion of course :mrgreen:
And, once again, many thanks to all you good people. ::

 

[Chasing Embers]

The big issue is the FDA deeming act, and all blends introduced from 2007 to present vanishing next year. In the nearly thirty years that I have been smoking a pipe, I have had many favorite blends discontinued, and in very recent years, have seen the coming demise of a few large companies, blenders, and B&M's. With jobs starting to test for nicotine for employment, and the ever growing opinion of smoking being politically incorrect, it's not paranoia, it's just a sign of the times.

 

[Chasing Embers]

Blends produced after February 2007 have to be submitted by blenders and companies for a content inspection costing many thousands of dollars per blend. Any blend in that time frame has to be removed from shelves August 8 2018 if not submitted. There is a current pause in that process, and it is under review, but many have known about it for a while. My local B&M shut its doors last year as a result, and that's one of the bigger contributors to hoarding in recent years.

 

[mawnansmiff]

I, like Mike live in the UK and have very good reason to believe HM Government will eventually get around to banning internet tobacco sales. Whether this happens in five years or ten years I really cannot say but I'm certain it will happen.
With the paucity of B&M outlets in my area the bulk of my purchases are made online. I have started to 'cellar' (NOT hoard) some of my preferred blends and will steadily continue to do so until I have enough to see me through...ten years being my goal.
I can't speak for other countries (though I suspect the same applies) but in my opinion HM Government are shooting themselves in the foot with ever punitive tobacco legislation. They make many many millions from tobacco (in all its forms) sales yet seem determined to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.
One of our political parties has recently stated in their upcoming election manifesto they will legalise cannabis! Now though it's not my thing I have no problem with that. What I do have a problem with is sometime in the future the only smoking stuff legally available will be pot with no tobacco to be seen.
The world is going mad.
Regards,
Jay.

 

[didache]

Interesting responses so far. As Jay said, I am in the UK where threats are somewhat different than those facing our brothers across the pond.
For myself, I am retiring at the end of January. Part of my motivation for building up a small stash is because, at least for a while, my income will be less than it is now. It is not because of the zombie apocalypse which, as we all know, is just around the corner :nana:
We will be moving to Bristol which still has a national class tobacconist: Birds of Baldwin Street. Their website is: http://bristolcigars.co.uk/ Interestingly they do NOT do online sales, but cater solely to local customers who, over the years, have been very loyal. It is one of those shops where the owners know all their regulars by name. So, I am not worried about not having a tobacconist on my doorstep, at least while the law remains as it is.

 

[oldgeezersmoker]

Under any scenario I can forsee, pipe tobacco is going to get more expensive, and being retired on a fixed income, that is sufficient reason to stock up. My self imposed limits are a function of my realistic expectation of my life expectancy, or at least the number of years I can see where I will be able to live independently.

 

[drwatson]

My gosh the sky has been falling for years, and I still have not been hit. I started this forum almost seven years ago and people were talking about it then. And In that time the only thing I have really noticed is that the drug stores are not carrying my Captain Black as much. Which I understand.

 

[mso489]

didache, I like a balanced view and some perspective. This U.S./FDA deeming regulation is draconian if it is put in place exactly as introduced, but I doubt it will be. Hang tough and expect better times. Yes, I suspect this past ten years or so have been the golden age of pipe tobacco in terms of availability, creativity, and accessibility. The artistry of blending has achieved a level it hasn't had since perhaps the nineteen fifties, or ever.

 

[alan73]

There are more taxes and regulations coming, guaranteed! A few thousand kilograms or supply on hand is inadequate in my opinion, for a piper dedicated to smoking for a longtime i.e. years or decades. As a Va, VaPer smoker (which naturally ages well), why not buy 10+ years worth of inventory , prices will never be cheaper ( wait for online deals). I think tobacco prices will double or more in next 4 -5 years due to taxation , just my opinion . I quit smoking cigarettes after prices went from $2 a pack to $12 a pack in Chicago. pipe tobacco in Chicago is already being taxed to death. Wait my friends , the good times are over

 

[philobeddoe]

I started smoking a pipe in 1990 at age 16, at that time I was able to chose my first pipe, a Dr. Grabow full bent billiard from a selection of approximately 40-50 pipes at my local drug store. Their tobacco selection was nearly as good, with approximately 25-30 blends on hand at all times. The pipes and pipe tobacco were not behind the counter as they are today, they were in the tobacco aisle, where one could peruse all of the pipes and read the labels of each blend without bothering an employee, can you even fathom the idea of a "tobacco aisle" today? This took place, not in some country store, but in a common drug store in a regular neighborhood in a big city and this set up was commonplace. The chain where I bought my pipe and tobacco was called Hooks Drug, they were bought up by Revco, who were bought up by CVS who no longer sell tobacco products of any kind. My city also used to have four very well stocked Tobacconists and we are down to one. There are still about a dozen Cigar stores, but they rarely sell pipes or pipe tobacco and when they do it's always an afterthought. Our hobby is going the way of the dodo....I have no illusions about that, several States have already banned internet tobacco sales, eBay no longer condones tobacco sales and oh yes, the Deeming Act! I stock up on tobacco because it's still possible to do so, I am quite sure that all Internet sales of tobacco will be banned (for the children) in the next ten years or so and I'm also sure that the one remaining tobacconist within my hometown will be gone in ten years or less, depending on the implementation of aforementioned Deeming Act. I cannot, for the life of me understand the Pollyanna levels of optimism it would require in order to not be stocking up and think that you would still be able to smoke a pipe within the next twenty or so years.

 

[PaulTheScandinavian]

With these currant prices I can't afford too much of stocking ups'nonetheless I'm thinking by myself these few basic Mc Barens blends and other OTC type blends will always remain available ,and thats Okay with me, I'm good with some 5-6 blends to rotate, its sounds as if we were living in past somewhere in the former Sovyet Union or in East Germany(DDR) or Poland, where no more than maximum 2-3 pipetobacco brands were available+1 cigar brand,Lol

 

[Chasing Embers]

why blends past Feb. '07

Because that's when e-cigarettes came about, and they threatened the cigarette market. Cigars and pipes just got lumped into the mess.

 

[mso489]

chasing', I think that's true. Cigars and most especially pipes are just collateral damage, because when the write regs they are just on paper and don't consider the exceptions and circumstances, so if there's collateral damage, so what? The whole pipe smoking world is separate from vape, certainly, cigarettes for sure, hooka in fact, and chaw and cigars -- a different demographic, method of intake, etc. etc.

 

[warren]

Vapor cigarette usage was simply an excuse. No collateral damage at all. The intent of the act is clear. If it was only collateral/unintended damage why so many regulations directed at pipe blends?
Pipe smoking is part and parcel of the "ban smoking" people. Vaping is seen as an introduction to smoking for kids, same as the old candy cigarette. Nothing unintentional at all.

 

[Chasing Embers]

Vapor cigarette usage was simply an excuse. No collateral damage at all. The intent of the act is clear. If it was only collateral/unintended damage why so many regulations directed at pipe blends?
Pipe smoking is part and parcel of the "ban smoking" people. Vaping is seen as an introduction to smoking for kids, same as the old candy cigarette. Nothing unintentional at all.

Yep, they were just trying to find a way to tie it all together. I doubt even the "grandfathered" blends will be safe for very long.

 

[sablebrush52]

thanks for the response chasingembers. This is ridicolous as it can be...why blends past Feb. '07? What's the difference between them and others? Seems like arbitrariness from the gov. to me.

Am I right that this only applies for blends produced in the U.S. ? So blends like Mac Barens HH Line won't be affected by this f.e. ?

The cut off date was set when the legislation was originally written, which was two years before it was passed. So, the cut off would have originally be contemporaneous to the passage of the law. Then the FDA waited until Spring of 2016 to announce it's Deeming Rule. Since Big Tobacco had a hand in crafting the legislation it is set up to provide almost insurmountable financial hurdles for small and boutique manufacturers to meet, including the vaping industry, and is designed to hand a virtual monopoly to the biggest players.
The legislation will force all tobaccos not available in the US before, on, and continuously after, Feb 15th 2007 to be unavailable for sale after August 8th 2018. This will include all foreign made product including MacBaren's., Gawith, Germain's, etc. That said, blends that were available before February 15th 2007 and continue to be available are grandfathered in.
For blends introduced into the market after the Feb 15th 2007 date, they can continue to be sold if they are "deemed" suitable by the FDA. There are two paths to this deeming, one really expensive and the other suicidally expensive, to the tune of $400,000 per blend with no assurance of approval. For cigarette companies this is no big deal. They make that kind of money in an hour. For pipe tobacco companies it is impossible.
The EU and various member nations are also enacting laws that will do similar things in their respective marketplaces.
As to why I cellar. I like some blends aged a few years before smoking, so having stock to age is part of the plan. I like variety. Tobacco doesn't get cheaper and taxes will not be less. Much loved blends have a way of disappearing without warning. I have stock for making trades. And after 8/8/2018 many of my favorites will be off the market. I'm not cellaring, as some with many hundreds or thousands of pounds do, to later resell at an extreme profit. But if I ever do decide to give up the pipe, a lot of what I have will sell for multiples of what I paid for it.

 

[Chasing Embers]

I hoard mainly for the constant rise in tobacco prices. No thoughts of resale here, just trying to built a sufficient supply while I can still afford it.