Survivorship Bias in Pipe Accumulating

[Briar Lee]

I accumulate, rather than collect, pipes. A collector has a plan and a purpose, I just like to have a lot of very nice old pipes, so I try and buy bargains.

I notice today looking at my vast stash of Lee Star Grade pipes something curious. Briar pipes have always been made to pack with tobacco and light on fire, which is abusive to anything made of wood and hard rubber. Even a wood burning stove suffers from use. Yet the majority of the Lee pipes I buy look barely smoked.

And, my Lee pipes were priced by number of stars on the stem. Initially there was a $3.50 One Star, soon dropped from the catalog, and a $5 Two Star, $10 Three Star, $15 Four Star, and the top Five Star was $25. Not for every article, but for most things sold the base model sells the most. One would expect to find most Lee pipes with two stars, the fewest with five stars. But in my hoard of Lees at least eighty percent are three star grade, and by far the most surviving two star grades are those with 5 pointed stars, which meant they cost $10 instead of $5, due to Lee raising the price to $5 per star sometime about the time he switched from 7 to 5 pointed stars.

Where, are all the Two Star Lee pipes? And why are Five Star Lee pipes more commonly found than Four Star Lees?


When an artist draws a fifties man with a briar pipe, it’s a medium billiard. The billiard is reputed to be the most popular factory pipe in existence. I’ve sometimes heard it called a “Dad Pipe”. Yet I only own a few Lee Billiard shapes, and most of those are small. A medium billiard Lee is in my experience rarer than all the other common shapes.

There is a concept known as survivor bias, illustrated by losses of Allied aircraft over Germany in WW2. Simply put, when armoring a war plane it’s best not to armor the places the surviving planes have holes. Instead armor the places the survivors weren’t hit, because the planes that didn’t come back went down from being hit there.

It makes sense that Lee’s biggest seller was a two star medium billiard and those got smoked up and tossed.

But I don’t believe that explains the phenomenon that makes a two star medium billiard Lee the scarcest Lee pipe in today’s market.

I think Lee pipes were luxury items, the highest priced production pipes on earth for their most popular era, and they were selected as $10 and later $15 gifts for a pipe smoker, by a woman who loved him. She didn’t buy the cheapest or the most expensive, instead the middle of the range, and she didn’t buy him what she knew he already had.

But I suppose, it’s always going to be a mystery.

 

[cosmicfolklore]

 

[Morrison Jeremiah]

I can't relate to survivor bias in pipes, because I'm not really interested in pipes per se. I'm only interested in smoking them.
But I can relate to survivor bias in watches. For instance the genuine Hamilton Railroad pocket watch with Arabic numerals, railroad track minute sector, lever set, open case, has probably the highest survival rate in terms of items in existence vs amount produced of any older watch.
Most are tucked away in private collections, and rarely come up for sale, but are handed down as heirlooms.
Don't know if you can extrapolate from that to help solve the Lee mystery.

 

[peregrinus]

And, my Lee pipes were priced by number of stars on the stem.

But in my hoard of Lees at least eighty percent are three star grade, and by far the most surviving two star grades are those with 5 pointed stars, which meant they cost $10 instead of $5,

But I don’t believe that explains the phenomenon that makes a two star medium billiard Lee the scarcest Lee pipe in today’s market.

But I suppose, it’s always going to be a mystery.

I think perhaps the answer is to be found in the question.
However, this nor anything else said or done, will likely dissuade you from asking again so @cosmicfolklore answer will need to suffice.

 

[Briar Lee]

I can't relate to survivor bias in pipes, because I'm not really interested in pipes per se. I'm only interested in smoking them.
But I can relate to survivor bias in watches. For instance the genuine Hamilton Railroad pocket watch with Arabic numerals, railroad track minute sector, lever set, open case, has probably the highest survival rate in terms of items in existence vs amount produced of any older watch.
Most are tucked away in private collections, and rarely come up for sale, but are handed down as heirlooms.
Don't know if you can extrapolate from that to help solve the Lee mystery.

I own three , genuine railroad pocket watches with Arabic numbers. stem wind and lever set, 16 size, double roller, that might have smelled the smoke and heard the whistle of a high ball express train, but only one 1943 war finish Waltham 23 jewel Vanguard with a Canadian dial and case that is literally covered under the rear cap with dozens of small inspector’s marks that beyond doubt, was used in railroad service until 1980, the date of the last service.

My 1950 Elgin B W Raymond 571, 1950 Hamilton 992B, and 1923 Illinois Bunn Special were rarely serviced. The Elgin looks brand new.

Some of the most expensive watches Elgin, Waltham, and Hamilton made were little 12 size “gentleman’s watches” that never would have qualified for railroad service. While valuable today, they aren’t usually as collectible as railroad watches.


Why are the genuine railroad grade Hamilton railroad watches the most numerous today?


Hamilton never made a sturdy 7 jewel movement. To this day, Walmart sells cheap watches stamped Elgin and Waltham (that are in no way genuinely Elgins or Walthams) and Hamilton is still an expensive watch, the brand a woman who loves a man gives him as a present. That’s why all those railroad Hamiltons still survive.

My first boss, a handyman and fence builder everybody called “Red”, was an alcoholic who had graduated from Flemington High School in 1949, and served honorably in the Korean War. He’d planned to work on the railroad, but the bottle got in the way.

Red’s father was a brave engineer, who carried an Elgin watch. Red kept that one safe at his shanty in Spout Spring Hollow.

But carefully wrapped in a handkerchief in his hundred dollar old pickup, Red kept a beautiful, gleaming Elgin 571 his parents gave him on his graduation day.

We’d guess when it was close to noon, and he’d get out his railroad watch to check against the noon whistle from Humansville, about four miles away as the crow flies.

I was just a kid, but I couldn’t help noticing how his hands shook at the end of the day, when he’d head home to have drink. He looked a lot, like Lefty Frizzell.

RAILROAD LADY

 

[Sweet Home Alabama]

I contend that things suffer from disuse. What’s the law that says things in motion tend to stay in motion.

 

[hauntedmyst]

I look at it this way, sometimes things just wear out, sometimes they don't. Back in the day, old Joe Clint use to ride a bike. He never drove as he just preferred to ride because of the pace and health aspects. He rode an old steel Raleigh with an Archer 3 speed hub. It had 10's of thousands of miles on it, of not 100's because he always took care of it, come rain or snow. Sure tires and cables were replaced and it had frequent tune ups and every fall, he'd slosh oil around inside the frame to keep it from rusting from the inside out. So it looked new always. Joe Clint always looked dabber on his bike and that bike was the envy of all the kids in the neighborhood even though it was 20 years old when I was a kid. Then one day a few years ago I heard Old Joe was hit by a train trying to make the crossing. They said you could have fit what was left of that bicycle into a briefcase. Joe and the bicycle just gone like that. I guess what I am trying to say is, "Don't get hit by a train"

 

[telescopes]

. I guess what I am trying to say is, "Don't get hit by a train"

Good advice any day of the week.

 

[telescopes]

I think perhaps the answer is to be found in the question.
However, this nor anything else said or done, will likely dissuade you from asking again so @cosmicfolklore answer will need to suffice

Don't get hit by a train"

Not even @cosmicfolklore could argue with that advice, LOL

 

[cosmicfolklore]

Not even @cosmicfolklore could argue with that advice, LOL

Oh, I could argue with anything, but I don't want the robots mad at me. Besides... “¯\_(ツ)_/¯ "

 

[telescopes]

I had a near death experience with a drowning incident in Lake Killarney in Ironton, Missouri - Lee will know the place... and I was rescued by a native from the town of Bethlehem who was working at a Christian Camp, Penuel, that summer. He is a Palestinian Christian and he was driving the boat that they pulled me on to. His name was George. During the time I was "out", my life story passed in front of me as a tapestry. What was interesting was that I saw all of the events of my life neatly laid out, past and future.

It isn't a train that hits me.

It is a bus.

Thank goodness, I don't have to worry about getting hit by a train.

 

[condorlover1]

I have said this on here several times before. Death doesn't bother me that much, in the words of Raymond Chandler we are all going to sleep the big sleep. What always concerns me is the after life. I always have a recurring dream that I have arrived at the Pearly Gates, my file has been reviewed by St Peter and after a certain amount of time I am informed that I am good enough to squeeze into heaven. I sigh a breath of relief at which point I am informed that before I enter eternity there is just the formality of the cavity search!

 

[georged]

He dreamed of eating green apples with worms. We have never been to Asia, nor have we visited Africa. She was the type of girl that always burnt sugar to show she cared. If any cop asks you where you were, just say you were visiting Kansas. He would only survive if he kept the fire going and he could hear thunder in the distance. Giving directions that the mountains are to the west only works when you can see them. The secret ingredient to his wonderful life was crime.

 

[condorlover1]

@georged : Interesting quote. Where is it from?

 

[bassbug]

For some ugodly reason, I just read through this entire thread.

8 1/2 minutes I will never ever get back in my life.

 

[sasquatch]

This guy keeps at it, pretty soon Lees will be going for over 30 dollars on eBay. And we wonder why gas is 5 bucks a gallon...

 

[condorlover1]

@bassbug : That happens a lot around here!

 

[wolflarsen]

The beet is the most intense of vegetables. The radish, admittedly, is more feverish, but the fire of the radish is a cold fire, the fire of discontent not of passion. Tomatoes are lusty enough, yet there runs through tomatoes an undercurrent of frivolity. Beets are deadly serious. The murderer returned to the scene of the crime. The beet was Rasputin's favorite vegetable, you could see it in his eyes.
In Europe there is grown widely a large beet they call the mangel-wurzel. Perhaps it is mangel-wurzel that we see in Rasputin. Certainly there is mangel-wurzel in the music of Wagner, although it is another composer whose name begins, B-e-e-t—.
Of course, there are white beets, beets that ooze sugar water instead of blood, but it is the red beet with which I am concerned; the variety that blushes and swells like a hemorrhoid, a hemorrhoid for which there is no cure. Actually .... there is one remedy. Commission a potter to make you a ceramic asshole. When you aren't sitting on it you can use it as a bowl for borscht.

 

[georged]

@georged : Interesting quote. Where is it from?

Mr. Lee's cousin:

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[Briar Lee]

With any high end plaything such as a fine shotgun, pipe, watch, or whatever the toy might be, the survivorship rate will be higher than the mill run everyday article. Poor folks didn’t buy many Lee pipes, or Hamilton 21 jewel 992 watches. If they did they treasured them all the more.

Violins are an example of an extremely mature technology. They haven’t really changed in hundreds of years, and a cheap Asian violin kit is about $100.

Solid Maple Spruce Wood Fiddle Violin 4/4 Full Size w Case Bow Shoulder String | eBay

This violin is professionally set up and ready to play, 100% hand oil varnished, solid hand-carved spruce top and solid hand-carved maple back, sides, neck and scroll. This violin has beautiful inlaid purfling, and pegs, fingerboard and chinrest are made from solid wood.

www.ebay.com

Of course the most famous violin to own is one of the 650 or so surviving examples made by Antonio Stradivari.

Stradivarius: What you need to know about the legendary violins

Any of the golden-period instruments are usually worth millions, and their worth increases on average by 8 per cent to 12 per cent each year

www.theglobeandmail.com

Nearly 35 years ago I was hired to represent the surviving son of a recently deceased old man who owned what the family had considered a genuine Stradivarius violin for several generations. The story was that a German immigrant had purchased the Stradivarius in the old country, immigrated to Missouri, and the violin was in his hands capable of the sweetest music possible. On his death the Stradivarius passed to his eldest son, who’d passed it to his eldest son, who’d in turn passed it to the recently departed, and now the current eldest son wanted the family Stradivarius.

Thd trouble was, the old man had remarried after my client’s mother died, and the surviving step mother sort of wanted the fortune a new to the market Stradivarius violin would surely bring.

Missouri has a homestead law, that awards household goods and musical instruments to the surviving spouse, but there’s usually a loophole somewhere to argue a half million dollar antique Stradivarius is NOT legally just a common household good.

I knew the opposing lawyer well, a gentleman who’d spent about forty years in practice, and we agreed right away on one thing. I was of the opinion the violin was probably a nearly worthless fake. If it was, then the parties might decide not to fight over nothing, and settle.

I called the Smithsonian and managed ya get ahold of a man there that was very knowledgeable of fine violins. Not a year passes he said, that he didn’t hear several stories like mine, and he cautioned that almost, but not quite all, of the heirloom Stradivarius violins are fakes and of no particular worth beyond being a playable old violin. But, there was an expert in St. Louis that could examine it, and tell if it was real or not.

The son, and the step mother drove to St Louis, and to my amazement the Stradivarius wasn’t exactly a cheap fake and wasn’t a genuine Antonio Stradivari made violin either. Evidently Antonio had employees that during his lifetime made the same violins on their own, they’d made working for Tony, and it was one of those.

But, instead of being worth hundreds of thousands if it was genuine, or less than a hundred if it was a fake, this violin was worth then maybe five thousand or so dollars, as a high end violin.

They went out afterwards to restaurant and decided to not fight over it, my client paid off the lawyers and for the appraisal, and the widow decided to keep it in the old man’s family, by giving it to my client.

He put the appraisal papers in the case, and it’s still out there somewhere.

But for over a hundred years all those men thought they had a violin worth a fortune, and instead it was worth about the price of a decent used car, or a big family vacation.

I hope somebody in the family learned to play the fiddle, because that’s what it’s highest and best use is.