High Cattle Prices

[Briar Lee]

My Amish renter called me and we chatted a bit. He has plenty of hay for the coming storm. All is well and good, a half mile South of Bug Tussle.

But he’s got problems.

He would like to expand his herd, but just a regular beef cow, a good black one, costs over three thousand dollars.

I asked is that for a cow calf pair, bred back and he said oh no, a weaned 100 pound calf sells for $800. That’s just for the mama cow, bred back.

I said Henry, isn’t that a wonderful problem you have?

He said what do you mean?

How many good black mama cows, do you own today?

He said about eighty.

And how many calves?

Almost that many, we had one die.

I said why don’t you save back some heifers, and he said we can’t afford to, they’ll sell for two thousand dollars when they reach 600 pounds.

For any of us that can remember 40 cent cattle and 60 cent calves in 1973, and then the bottom fell out in 1974, this is just wonderful.

https://www.chron.com/news/article/cattle-population-us-cows-texas-20157367.php

How long do you think record beef prices will last?

The poultry and pork industry can take lots of $5 corn and produce a lot of chicken and pork steaks in about a year.

But today, a pot load of feeder calves will buy the new semi truck. I’ve heard my father and others say that about right after WW2, until the Recession of 1953.

But right now, I’m so happy for Henry’s problems.

 

[VDL_Piper]

Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. When cattle prices are high you're a seller and when they eventually come back down and they will, you're a buyer. This is farm economics 101 and if you use your money wisely after selling high there is a fair chance you can buy a lot lot more than you ever thought possible. Breeders are always in the market at the right price and sell their calves at big money or small but they are always in that market. Traders on the other hand can and do get caught all the time especially those doing grass-fed because they have to wait so long for their animals to get to sale weight and by then the market has moved away from them. Feedlotters can turn animals in 100 days so they can and will dump beef if the metrics on their feeding goes wrong. My farm will produce 3.5 million pounds of beef annually so I've got a reasonable handle on how the system works.

 

[JoburgB2]

If I get your drift, then this is the right time for all fathers with daughters of marriage age to maximise lobolo. No?

 

[cosmicfolklore]

I have met and talked to a lot of Amish and Mennonite farmers, and I have yet to meet one with an "English" name like Henry. I hope this doesn't sound racist, or whatever you'd call a prejudice against a religion/social group like that... but all of the men I've met had names like Broder, Glick, Petersheim, or Balzar. I'm not saying that they couldn't use a name like Henry, but I've just never met one.

 

[Briar Lee]

I have met and talked to a lot of Amish and Mennonite farmers, and I have yet to meet one with an "English" name like Henry. I hope this doesn't sound racist, or whatever you'd call a prejudice against a religion/social group like that... but all of the men I've met had names like Broder, Glick, Petersheim, or Balzar. I'm not saying that they couldn't use a name like Henry, but I've just never met one.

Henry was native born in 1986 in the Humansville Amish Community, delivered by Dr Matthews, two miles from Dunnegan, which at the time was maybe ten years old.

The same Christian Church that took in James Joesph (Jimmy Joe) Clay and Popcorn Mary Owens and Darlene, also took in other Christians.

Several of us Christian boys busted a few heads who made fun of the Duchies.

They all say the Pledge to the Flag, every one gets all their shots, the kids all see Dr Matthews, stand up when a women enters the room, say yes sir and no sir, and even sing through their noses. My mother and other Christian teachers helped them set up the First Amish School, now they have two.

The Lord works in mysterious ways, His wonders to perform.

I asked Henry last night if the Amish played much football. He said no, they usually were too busy working.

They don’t have a dozen kids either.


As Henry explains when the wives get close to thirty Dr Matthews gives them some medicine to regulate their periods, even prescribes they wear panty hose, keeps the swelling in their legs down, you know?

As I drive my Rhino from the Plum Grove Christian Church to the first Turkey Creek crossing, on both sides of the road, rise the new mansions of the faithful on top of the hillsides. Fat black cattle graze in tall lush pastures.

If I go on into Humansville fat mothers sit on broken down porches and scream at little street urchins not to get run over, amid streets littered with empty vape cartridges and dollar sized plastic whiskey bottles.

At least they eat well, at school.

I wonder, who taught Henry’s mother, and all those Amish girls, to sing to their men?.

Hint

 

[sablebrush52]

How long do you think record beef prices will last?

Forever, unless there's a significant decline in demand, in which case you create an artificial decline in supply to keep prices elevated. Worked for the diamond industry, except when the Great Depression hit and the price of diamonds collapsed.

But you can't eat diamonds and you can eat beef, so prices will stay elevated, since demand is more rooted in reality.

 

[cosmicfolklore]

As with oil and beef, the staples of the economy, their comes a point where demand will drop. People will start sharing rides, or just not travelling as much, and with beef, their comes a point when the wife and I will just chose to eat a lot of chicken instead of paying $60 for two small steaks to cook at home. Usually, the sellers know the sweet spot, and will curb production to meet the sweet spot. Oil is easier, because they can store back reserves or open up reserves to keep gas at that $2 to $3 area, where they make the most money. I guess with cattle they just have t let nature take its course, and eat the losses from declining sales.

All I know, is that a single New York strip is not worth $40 for me to cook at home. The unusual thing is that steak houses don't tend to go up and down on their steak prices. So, we don't mind hitting the Ruth Chris or Road House when we want a steak when prices are outrageous.

 

[Briar Lee]

Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. When cattle prices are high you're a seller and when they eventually come back down and they will, you're a buyer. This is farm economics 101 and if you use your money wisely after selling high there is a fair chance you can buy a lot lot more than you ever thought possible. Breeders are always in the market at the right price and sell their calves at big money or small but they are always in that market. Traders on the other hand can and do get caught all the time especially those doing grass-fed because they have to wait so long for their animals to get to sale weight and by then the market has moved away from them. Feedlotters can turn animals in 100 days so they can and will dump beef if the metrics on their feeding goes wrong. My farm will produce 3.5 million pounds of beef annually so I've got a reasonable handle on how the system works.

Henry has an eighth grade education in the school my mother helped set up.

When you see those hillsides full of fat black cattle grazing, they are either all paid for or they owe family. The same applies to those hundred plus dollar big round bales.

They are so close, I had to tell Henry to not use solar panel electric fences, put up that heavy wire, steel posts, and then he taught me to drive sucker rod corners instead of hedge.

They can’t afford to buy for seven thousand an acre land that rents for forty dollars or less.

Those fat black cattle, most times keep the pastures clean.

They all work out or have a business to cater to the English.

Henry’s not used to cattle being worth the truck that hauls them to market.

But he knows it’s not the usual situation.

 

[Briar Lee]

As with oil and beef, the staples of the economy, their comes a point where demand will drop. People will start sharing rides, or just not travelling as much, and with beef, their comes a point when the wife and I will just chose to eat a lot of chicken instead of paying $60 for two small steaks to cook at home. Usually, the sellers know the sweet spot, and will curb production to meet the sweet spot. Oil is easier, because they can store back reserves or open up reserves to keep gas at that $2 to $3 area, where they make the most money. I guess with cattle they just have t let nature take its course, and eat the losses from declining sales.

All I know, is that a single New York strip is not worth $40 for me to cook at home. The unusual thing is that steak houses don't tend to go up and down on their steak prices. So, we don't mind hitting the Ruth Chris or Road House when we want a steak when prices are outrageous.

Ain’t that right?

A few years ago Henry’s wife persuaded him to build her a new home.

That home today is worth all Henry’s cattle herd, he has on his father’s two hundred and my three hundred acres.

It would cost him three and a half million for the land and most of a half million for his herd, if he started from scratch with nothing.

He’d still have to build Mama a house.

If big ag could dry lot mama cows, what would the cow calf operators do then with all that grass?.

Five dollars buys a bushel of corn that makes 8 pounds of beef and 15 pounds of pork and 20 pounds of chicken.

It don’t require no Nostradamus to see how this is going to end.

 

[cosmicfolklore]

Ha ha, I just can't get past that name. Henry the Amish guy, named for the most famous English persecutor of religions different from his ideal, Henry the 8th. Ha ha. That's like meeting an Israeli named Adolf.

 

[Briar Lee]

Forever, unless there's a significant decline in demand, in which case you create an artificial decline in supply to keep prices elevated. Worked for the diamond industry, except when the Great Depression hit and the price of diamonds collapsed.

But you can't eat diamonds and you can eat beef, so prices will stay elevated, since demand is more rooted in reality.

I surely hope so.

But that’s never been so.

It will take several years to build the beef herd, and only a few months to a year for pork and chicken to drive down demand for beef.

 

[sablebrush52]

I surely hope so.

But that’s never been so.

It will take several years to build the beef herd, and only a few months to a year for pork and chicken to drive down demand for beef.

Higher prices will drive down demand as prices put beef beyond the affordability of more and more people. And when demand dies down, you reduce supply to keep the cost up. Less work for more reward. Then you move into supplying more affordable options, chicken, pork, whatever, to those shut out of beef and raise prices on that as well.
If worse comes to worse, they can all eat cake, can't they?

 

[Briar Lee]

Ha ha, I just can't get past that name. Henry the Amish guy, named for the most famous English persecutor of religions different from his ideal, Henry the 8th. Ha ha. That's like meeting an Israeli named Adolf.

Xxxxx
With roots tracing back to the Normans' arrival in England in 1066, the Henry name bears testament to a rich tapestry of Germanic heritage. In the 13th century, the Henry clan found its home in the rugged landscapes of the Western Highlands of Scotland. Under the noble leadership of Ewen, a respected figure within the clan, they thrived with an unwavering commitment to independence and a deep reverence for their ancestral lands. The clan's legacy is now guarded by MacEwen from Otter, the current chief
Xxxxx

I asked my Mama why she named me Van Bruce.

And she said the name Van means out in front in Latin, and you are descended from Robert the Bruce.

The marching song of the Humansville Tigers to this day, is Days of Glory.

Countless generations after we left Scotland, my knees will not bend.

We do not kneel, except in ceremony, and not for very long then.

The Humansville Amish Community is chock full of Robert’s and Bruce’s and Henry’s and Van’s and Gerald’s and many pretty Geraldine’s.

Only their last names are German.

They ain’t reached the full Christian only levels yet, but they’s heading that away.

 

[sablebrush52]

Xxxxx
With roots tracing back to the Normans' arrival in England in 1066, the Henry name bears testament to a rich tapestry of Germanic heritage. In the 13th century, the Henry clan found its home in the rugged landscapes of the Western Highlands of Scotland. Under the noble leadership of Ewen, a respected figure within the clan, they thrived with an unwavering commitment to independence and a deep reverence for their ancestral lands. The clan's legacy is now guarded by MacEwen from Otter, the current chief
Xxxxx

I asked my Mama why she named me Van Bruce.

And she said the name Van means out in front in Latin, and you are descended from Robert the Bruce.

The marching song of the Humansville Tigers to this day, is Days of Glory.

Countless generations after we left Scotland, my knees will not bend.

We do not kneel, except in ceremony, and not for very long then.

The Humansville Amish Community is chock full of Robert’s and Bruce’s and Henry’s and Van’s and Gerald’s and many pretty Geraldine’s.

Only their last names are German.

They ain’t reached the full Christian only levels yet, but they’s heading that away.

What!? No Mustafas?

 

[anotherbob]

My Amish renter called me and we chatted a bit. He has plenty of hay for the coming storm. All is well and good, a half mile South of Bug Tussle.



But right now, I’m so happy for Henry’s problems.

Couple questions. Why do you rent an Amish guy? And how are you supposed to even know if a cow is high or not?
Also it's a bit racist assuming the black cows are high, though also technically not at all.
Sorry I had to get stupid for a few more moments.

 

[cosmicfolklore]

Couple questions. Why do you rent an Amish guy? And how are you supposed to even know if a cow is high or not?
Also it's a bit racist assuming the black cows are high, though also technically not at all.
Sorry I had to get stupid for a few more moments.

The cows that walk on boxes are higher than the other cows, duh.

 

[VDL_Piper]

Briar Lee it’s worth noting too that your new President likes his tariffs and I suspect that beef will get hit hard with one. What does this mean……..well Australia exports nearly 75% of our beef annually, obviously not all to the U.S. but a large chunk does. This will slow down for sure and suppress our prices and other exporters as you guys consume domestic product and will remain like that until the economics of eating your meat or ours becomes a profit problem for U.S. meat packers.

 

[Richmond B. Funkenhouser]

What color were those cows again?

 

[VDL_Piper]

Seems like an appropriate thread for this little gem

 

[Briar Lee]

Couple questions. Why do you rent an Amish guy? And how are you supposed to even know if a cow is high or not?
Also it's a bit racist assuming the black cows are high, though also technically not at all.
Sorry I had to get stupid for a few more moments.

Black cows are high because the order buyers pay a premium for black angus.

Henry lives across the road. My mother rented him ten idle acres in 2002 when he was sixteen, if he’d fix the fences.

He fixed the fences, and built a barn on it, and put a new cover over the well.

Cows are high as ^%}* when you can buy the new truck that hauls them away for the check from the sale barn.

Also, Henry believes, like I believe, that if he ever once—-just one time—-deceives somebody that right is wrong or wrong is right, that he’s committed the unforgivable sin against the Holy Ghost.

And that he will forever burn in hell with no chance of salvation or reprieve.

In plain terms, that means Henry will die before he does evil.

Nice character trait to have in a renter of a farm, you know?