Predicting The Future

[cigrmaster]

I sometimes wonder where our pipe tobacco hobby be ten years from now. Will it be legal to ship over state lines? Will deeming laws be so strict most blends will never be made and many other will be discontinued. Will they tax the pipe makers claiming it is all for the kids. Will a huge black market take over and we will be forced to buy off the back of the trucks who smuggle pipe tobacco all over the country? I am sure there are bad things that can happen to us, but that is all I can think of at the moment.

One thing I truly believe is that the government will screw us in one way or the other. Anyone have any other thoughts that they can see screwing us?

 

[telescopes]

It's a good question. I doubt that a vibrant black market will really exist for pipe tobacco. Most pipe smokers I know just aren't the type to meet in odd locations with dubious people to exchange money for pipe tobacco. That said, I can imagine it will be like chasing Cuban Cigars was a few decades ago. It will be possible and not that scary. Serious smokers will find some connections; perhaps some private growers or those who want to unload their cellars.

The challenge may be that the big suppliers will simply disappear. What I really look to see happen is crazy tax rates such as those found in Australia. What is odder perhaps, is that pot will be more readily available and perhaps even cheaper than pipe tobacco.

I am good for another 12-15 years. I may do one last spurt of refreshing my cellar in a few years just to ensure my stuff on hand isn't pressed into aging too much beyond its usable shelf life.

 

[verporchting]

I suspect pipe smoking will continue on the same trajectory as it is on now - fewer people than in years and decades past but with a smaller dedicated subset of adherents, quite probably fueling an artisan trend of handmade pipes and small batch blends. Ergo a lot more money for a lot smaller hobby/pastime and way, way outside the mainstream.

My crystal ball is running low on battery power and needs to be recharged now, lol.

 

[kcghost]

The government is determined to tax us every which way they can. God forbid they consider spending less.

 

[Servant King]

One thing I truly believe is that the government will screw us in one way or the other.

I'd replace "believe" with "know." It's an immutable, universal law.

 

[hoosierpipeguy]

The anti smoking coalition has been successful. It follows the 80/20 rule in a way. 80% of the smokers were eliminated with a 20% effort. It would take an 80% effort to get rid of the other 20%. There are a minimal amount of new smokers entering the market (as compared to 25 years ago). Now it's a simple matter of allowing the 20% to die off. Think about it, I'll bet 90% of the people at this site are over 40. That number may be 50 or older.

It's just a matter of time.

 

[telescopes]

In the 70s and 80s the churches railed against Secular Humanism. The response was always that this was a made up argument. Today, it can absolutely be stated that S.H. isn't an imaginary concern, it is a full blown religion designed to proselytize today's youth and adults away from traditional values of family and faith and toward an allegiance to big government and a world order that is the antithesis traditional views and faiths. Those who disagree are excommunicated by cancellation and silenced by a mob. Pipe smokers, for many reasons, will be seen as vestiges of the past and worthy of burning to ashes and embers. I am sure of this.

 

[cosmicfolklore]

I just don’t worry about things that haven’t happened yet, nor things out of my control.

 

[sablebrush52]

Overall, I expect that pipe smoking will be around for many years to come, albeit as an increasingly niche activity. Pipe carving will continue since there will be other things to smoke besides tobacco, at least for a while. The same campaign used to demonize tobacco will eventually be turned on other drugs.

The quality of domestic tobaccos will largely continue to trend downward, though the possibility of a few places growing a premium grade product at a higher price point might be tried. That will probably fail, as pitching more expensive blends because of quality will be a tough sell. Most wouldn't really care that much, or taste the difference.

Empire leaf will continue to be more rewarding, because the labor cost is less and traditional processes, like careful hand picking will continue and the tobaccos tend to develop more robust flavors. Imported blends will continue to provide a better product, but they will be increasingly difficult to obtain.

Online sales will come to an end and all tobacco transactions will be required to be "face to face". B&M's, those still left, will be a little less screwed as a result.

Through all of this, those who want to and enjoy smoking pipes will continue to do so.

 

[sablebrush52]

I just don’t worry about things that haven’t happened yet, nor things out of my control.

You sound well balanced and sane. What is wrong with you?

 

[cosmicfolklore]

You sound well balanced and sane. What is wrong with you?

I’m sitting on over 400lbs of tobacco. The world can just crumble around me as I smoke.

 

[sablebrush52]

In the 70s and 80s the churches railed against Secular Humanism. The response was always that this was a made up argument. Today, it can absolutely be stated that S.H. isn't an imaginary concern, it is a full blown religion designed to proselytize today's youth and adults away from traditional values of family and faith and toward an allegiance to big government and a world order that is the antithesis traditional views and faiths. Those who disagree are excommunicated by cancellation and silenced by a mob. Pipe smokers, for many reasons, will be seen as vestiges of the past and worthy of burning to ashes and embers. I am sure of this.

In other words, pretty much what happens in theocracies, authoritarian and totalitarian regimes. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

 

[sablebrush52]

I’m sitting on over 400lbs of tobacco. The world can just crumble around me as I smoke.

Oh, one of those small cellars...

 

[telescopes]

In other words, pretty much what happens in theocracies, authoritarian and totalitarian regimes. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Yes

 

[tklee]

I'm sorry to say, at my side, pipe smoking will end with me. Coz I don't have any children, I don't know who I can pass my pipes to after I die. Sorry guys..... ???

 

[puff_not_snuff]

I predict that someone will post a photo of their "deep cellar" and ugly skull pipe collection in some thread on the forum today.

 

[Chasing Embers]

I'm in a position to never worry about having to buy tobacco again, and hopefully the kids have enough sense to throw out my collection when I'm gone as I've asked them to.

 

[Chasing Embers]

and ugly skull pipe collection

Not I, there are too many people collecting them here now.

 

[daytonsean]

They’re making too much money on taxes to end it. I don’t think the tobacco industry will ever go away. Much like everyone else thinks, the internet sales will go away and you’ll be limited to the blends your local store can get. Keep your chin up, I’m sure that gigantic stash of hard to find aged Virginia blends you have will last for quite a while.

 

[Searock Fan]

I’m sitting on over 400lbs of tobacco. The world can just crumble around me as I smoke.

Have you posted any pics of your tobacco stash?