I received a note from someone this morning who is very dear to me---a single mother with two kids---that made my Spidey sense tingle. Highly intelligent, vastly educated, absurdly qualified in her field, and usually rock-solid emotionally, a faint note of panic and dread concerning this Corona business seeped through. It was very unlike her.
I cannot stress that enough. It was VERY unlike her.
So I wrote the following response.
After sending it, I realized that there were probably others in the same emotional place---rock solid until now---and some of them might be the family or friends of you Kevinboard guys.
If so, here you go:
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Here's the Big Picture:
Option A --- Completely ignore the virus and let it do its thing, common cold style. The death count would be X from the disease and zero from the side-effects of trying to control the disease (because no attempt was made).
Option B --- Establish martial law planet-wide and isolate everyone. Food & etc dropped from airplanes. No one goes anywhere or does anything until a vaccine is developed and 100% distributed. The death count would be effectively zero from the disease and X from the side-effects of trying to control it. (widespread economic collapse, power grid and related infrastructure collapse, etc. Functionally, it would be a return to the 19th century.)
The correct path is somewhere in between. Exactly where in between is impossible to know because of the astronomical complexity. It can be guessed at by knowledgeable people, however.
The catch is even knowledgeable people are still human, and humans are opportunistic in the extreme. They unfailingly recommend whatever course of action benefits them the most PERSONALLY. Not just in health-related ways, but every possible way.
Politics follows. (People sort themselves into common-interest groups, and The Shit begins.)
Biologically, there is not an atom of difference between this pandemic and the countless ones before it. They are as old as Life on Earth. (They are, in fact, an unalterable characteristic of Life itself.)
Psychologically, there is very little that's the SAME. The last time one passed through, human communication was three or four orders of magnitude less efficient and had far less penetration than today.
While the ability to instantaneously and simultaneously communicate with thousands (in some cases millions) of other humans has its advantages, emotion-free decision making isn't one of them. Indeed, the "social media" reality has more in common with the "She's a witch!" fingerpointing dynamic of Medieval times than the science fiction-y utopia people imagined would come about before its invention.
The net result? No information is trustworthy. Everyone, everywhere, out of either selfishness or ignorance, is working an angle. Even if they're not you must assume they are because there's no way to know their motivation.
My recommendation? No human (the non-mega-wealthy ones, anyway) ever did, or ever will, have control of the world for more than a few meters around them. All else is---and always was---self delusion. So, now is a good time to acknowledge that and surrender to reality. Concentrate on making the tiny slice of the world you DO have control of the best it can be for the duration of the storm.
I bet that after the storm you'll look back on it as massive stroke of good fortune because this "inner re-alignment" of priorities will be permanent. Viewed as a gift.
Trust me, when you don't expect to survive but another few minutes (been there twice myself), you do NOT think about what you imagine you will before that moment. And the things you'll think about will be things you DID have complete control over, you just didn't know it at the time.
I cannot stress that enough. It was VERY unlike her.
So I wrote the following response.
After sending it, I realized that there were probably others in the same emotional place---rock solid until now---and some of them might be the family or friends of you Kevinboard guys.
If so, here you go:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's the Big Picture:
Option A --- Completely ignore the virus and let it do its thing, common cold style. The death count would be X from the disease and zero from the side-effects of trying to control the disease (because no attempt was made).
Option B --- Establish martial law planet-wide and isolate everyone. Food & etc dropped from airplanes. No one goes anywhere or does anything until a vaccine is developed and 100% distributed. The death count would be effectively zero from the disease and X from the side-effects of trying to control it. (widespread economic collapse, power grid and related infrastructure collapse, etc. Functionally, it would be a return to the 19th century.)
The correct path is somewhere in between. Exactly where in between is impossible to know because of the astronomical complexity. It can be guessed at by knowledgeable people, however.
The catch is even knowledgeable people are still human, and humans are opportunistic in the extreme. They unfailingly recommend whatever course of action benefits them the most PERSONALLY. Not just in health-related ways, but every possible way.
Politics follows. (People sort themselves into common-interest groups, and The Shit begins.)
Biologically, there is not an atom of difference between this pandemic and the countless ones before it. They are as old as Life on Earth. (They are, in fact, an unalterable characteristic of Life itself.)
Psychologically, there is very little that's the SAME. The last time one passed through, human communication was three or four orders of magnitude less efficient and had far less penetration than today.
While the ability to instantaneously and simultaneously communicate with thousands (in some cases millions) of other humans has its advantages, emotion-free decision making isn't one of them. Indeed, the "social media" reality has more in common with the "She's a witch!" fingerpointing dynamic of Medieval times than the science fiction-y utopia people imagined would come about before its invention.
The net result? No information is trustworthy. Everyone, everywhere, out of either selfishness or ignorance, is working an angle. Even if they're not you must assume they are because there's no way to know their motivation.
My recommendation? No human (the non-mega-wealthy ones, anyway) ever did, or ever will, have control of the world for more than a few meters around them. All else is---and always was---self delusion. So, now is a good time to acknowledge that and surrender to reality. Concentrate on making the tiny slice of the world you DO have control of the best it can be for the duration of the storm.
I bet that after the storm you'll look back on it as massive stroke of good fortune because this "inner re-alignment" of priorities will be permanent. Viewed as a gift.
Trust me, when you don't expect to survive but another few minutes (been there twice myself), you do NOT think about what you imagine you will before that moment. And the things you'll think about will be things you DID have complete control over, you just didn't know it at the time.
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