Could High Line Pipes Go Down Big Time

[hoosierpipeguy]

Most B&M's seem to not be in high ticket real estate areas. In other words, their monthly rental cost is relatively small. A number of them also do at least some internet sales which will generate some cash flow during the down time. I also agree some probably won't come out of this as they were likely surviving month to month.

There may be some exceptions but by and large, people that buy $1000 plus pipes won't fine themselves selling their pipe collection in order to make ends meet. I'd say it is the lower to medium priced pipe makers that will suffer the most.

The reality is, other than a few businesses/people that will benefit financially from this crisis, everybody will suffer to some degree or another. To what degree will depend upon how long before the quarantine stays in effect. I suspect the quarantine will be lifted before it ideally should in order to avoid a financial depression. You can't have the cure be worse than the disease.

 

[sablebrush52]

In tough times all collectibles take a hit. I remember back when I was working at Dale's Jewelers while I was in college, my boss, who had been in the business since the mid 1920's, told me how diamonds lost 80% of their value during the Great Depression.
High end pipes are a very niche market and could easily drop precipitously, as can any luxury goods. If you can't eat it, or use it to make a living, feed yourself and your family, clothe yourself or house yourself or use it to meet basic needs, possessions lose their value.
There will be some who don't need to sell their toys and can ride out a shock, and there are many others who live at the edge of their means who will be forced to dump their toys for what they can get.
And with smoking becoming less and less desirable, smoking paraphernalia strike me as a very poor choice of investment, regardless of economic conditions. I've never bought a pipe as an investment. I'd sooner buy a tulip.

 

[sablebrush52]

I suspect the quarantine will be lifted before it ideally should in order to avoid a financial depression. You can't have the cure be worse than the disease.

The problem is, the disease sets the timeline. Reopen, people get sick and can't work, and the economy tanks again.

 

[docpierce]

There would have to be an order of magnitude drop for me to ever see a Jeff Chronoswitch pipe in my mouth.

That whole sentence could be taken the wrong way.
Just sayin'.

 

[Casual]

That whole sentence could be taken the wrong way.
Just sayin'.

Thank you for noticing. I tried really hard to make it wrong on as many counts as I could. Everyone has to have a hobby.

 

[peregrinus]

The pot is being stirred.
Recession (economic re-set if you prefer) of some magnitude and duration seems more inevitable each day that passes.
If so, then this interlude will pull some people under, and make a few others very wealthy. The greatest dangers and the biggest opportunities are at times like this, times of uncertainty.
Couple years from now and we may have a general consensus of what is happening today, but even then there likely won’t be a unanimous agreement on why and what has occurred.

 

[mso489]

During the Great Depression, the bedrock investment of real estate was sometimes almost value-less. People who owned rental houses, rental shops, and similar sources of income ended up with nothing.

 

[Mr.Mike]

I think that’s a bit much, considering pipes and tobacco are (mostly) three or four figure deals.

When I said a killing, I didn't mean pipes. I ment cheap stock, securities and real estate.

 

[SATX Pipe]

You can take my responses with a grain of salt since we're not near as big as SP etc. but surprisingly our sales have been quite good lately. We did see a downtick in late Jan through Feb but the recent influx of sales in March and now into April have more than made up for it.

About 60% of our business is overseas, with the majority of that being in China, then spread out through Europe. The bulk majority of our sales in America are for artisan pipes priced around 299 and up. I can say we have seen a recent decline in sales of higher end restored pipes above 500, but for new artisan pipes in the same price range sales have been steady both in America and abroad.

 

[oldgeezersmoker]

One data point doesn’t make a trend line. I actively seek out these pipes and have for four years, Had I not already owned one with the same color stain and a taper bit, I would have been a bidder. This one went for $257, which IMO is very much in line. These aren’t rare, but nice ones like this aren’t exactly falling out of trees, either
Castello GG 65 Old Antiquari

 

[Simmerdown☕️]

There will likely be some good buys in the near future. Higher end pipes will see less price flexibility VS. quality factory offerings.
Pipes are becoming more of a tool to enjoy the leaf for me. I’ve rarely paid more than 250$ for a pipe anyways, and I’m increasing realizing that the smoking capabilities of a nice Castello are nominal VS. a Savinelli, Pete, or even a well-loved MM. ️

 

[mso489]

Any downward jolt in prices will cause a buying surge, other things being equal. When Stanwell moved production to Italy, for some reason a lot of their $130 to $200 USD formerly Danish made pipes were suddenly available at less, and there were lower cost pipes than those available as well. People who hadn't considered them before, like me, bought several.

 

[anotherbob]

In tough times all collectibles take a hit. I remember back when I was working at Dale's Jewelers while I was in college, my boss, who had been in the business since the mid 1920's, told me how diamonds lost 80% of their value during the Great Depression.
High end pipes are a very niche market and could easily drop precipitously, as can any luxury goods. If you can't eat it, or use it to make a living, feed yourself and your family, clothe yourself or house yourself or use it to meet basic needs, possessions lose their value.
There will be some who don't need to sell their toys and can ride out a shock, and there are many others who live at the edge of their means who will be forced to dump their toys for what they can get.
And with smoking becoming less and less desirable, smoking paraphernalia strike me as a very poor choice of investment, regardless of economic conditions. I've never bought a pipe as an investment. I'd sooner buy a tulip.

stress is great for smoking from a sales sound point. People need something to help feel better. It's part of the reason that after world war 2 and more people smoked. That's the rub, everything is complicated.

 

[sablebrush52]

Any downward jolt in prices will cause a buying surge, other things being equal.

Generally a downward jolt in prices happens because other things aren't equal. People with cash to spend will get some bargains. People trying to keep afloat will stick with trying to keep afloat.
When money gets tight, luxuries go out the window.

 

[fishingandpipes]

The interesting part for high end pipe (and any tobacco) sales will be the boys who overspent before there was ever a Corona virus, and are now cash poor.
I’m sure I’ll be buying a bunch of tobacco this year at very discounted prices.

People who buy S Bangs don't typically get cash poor even in bad times unless they made bad choices

 

[daveinlax]

IMO the mid $200.00/$600.00 range pipes might take a hit. ?

 

[oldgeezersmoker]

Generally a downward jolt in prices happens because other things aren't equal. People with cash to spend will get some bargains. People trying to keep afloat will stick with trying to keep afloat.
When money gets tight, luxuries go out the window.

I agree up until the last sentence. Lots of luxury goods were made and sold during the Great Depression. As many? No. Dunhill survived. Patel Phillipe survived. During the dotcom bust, one of my clients sold their jet. Another bought two.

 

[michail]

I don't believe that the virus will affect pipe economy that much.

I mean a guy who spends 15.000 on Teddy's signature or 4.000 on Jess bamboo is not going to be affected. Maybe even a small 10-15% drop will make him but more as a bargain actually.

I live in Greece with almost 10 years of economic crisis and of course smokers can't afford 350usd+ pipes.
But how much will the average salary of a US buyer -which seems to be the biggest market- will drop due to virus? I don't have any idea, but I don't see it affecting that much the passion for new pipes.
I already know people that saved money for Chicago anyway and they want to spend that budget on some pipes.

Generally since we are not a big community, maybe 0,5% of the planet, numbers for a massive "pipe bailout" just aren't there.
Artisan pipemakers don't even produce an enormous amount of pipes monthly to get so much in front of demand.

Please excuse my English, maybe I'm not so accurate in terminology to describe my thoughts

 

[mso489]

Could be that the estate market sags more than new and new commissioned pipes, because the people looking for higher end pipes at lower prices might just live with the pipes they have. Just a notion. Consumer economics is endlessly contradictory and complex, since the consumers are first of all people. An indicator would be if we see estate Dunhills/White Spots in good condition going for under $100 USD.

 

[lraisch]

One consideration for the estate market in these virus obsessed times, contagion.

If estate pipes are coming on the market because their (frequently elderly) owners have passed away would you risk buying their pipes?