Will I Have to Give Up the Pipe?

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numbersix

Lifer
Jul 27, 2012
5,449
53
I sometimes wonder just how long I will be able to maintain this wonderful hobby of ours. I so far have about a years worth of tobacco on hand. I hope to maybe have another year or two stocked up (if I am lucky) before the end of the year. I don't see myself affording more than that.
So what happens after I run out in a couple of years? Will prices be so high (thanks to upcoming tax laws) that a single bowl will cost $5-10? That's what I am wondering.
When I see things like this post: Anti-smoking busybodies, where the gov't of NZ is trying to make tobacco use illegal - it sort of boggles the mind.
To make matters even worse, there are think-tanks like this: University of California San Francisco School of Medicine Centre for Tobacco Control Research and Education solely designed to make tobacco use illegal.
Then there are plans to penalize smokers health benefits (are nicotine tests in our future?). It feels like an onslaught coming from all sides, with the majority of the public siding with the anti-smoking zealots.
I don't plan on giving up pipe smoking, but I often wonder if I will be forced to give it up within the next 3-5 years.

 

kashmir

Lifer
May 17, 2011
2,712
64
Northern New Jersey
It is a scary prospect. But like prohibition, it'll be bound to fail for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the Fed and State enjoy a steady stream of tax revenue, and, in these days of fiscal uncertainty, this revenue stream is unlikely to be foreclosed. Although, as looks likely, taxation is sure to increase. Also, the Indian Nations will never forego tobacco revenues on their reservations. And with increased taxation outside the res, they might very well secure a greater share of the market by under selling the Feds. Another thing to consider is that smoking rates outside of the United States are at an all time high (especially in China where tobacco usage is associated with increasing middle class status), and American tobacco exports are surely not going to forego this opportunity. Although tobacco production in Latin America and Africa are sure to give them a run on their money. Also, I have a hunch that when Fidel Castro dies, Cuba will resume economic ties with the United States, and the US market will be flooded with Cuban tobacco. Cuba's impoverished masses are longing for an economic upturn. I can see Obama in Havana before his term is out. Mark my words. You read it hear first. Lastly, even if draconian anti-tobacco laws were passed here in the United States, virtually outlawing tobacco, the response would be a HUGE black market, the likes of which would make the illegal drug market look like small potatoes. People will farm tobacco illegally throughout the American South East. Where a demand exists, necessity becomes the mother of invention. Witness the cannabis market. My three cents.

 

numbersix

Lifer
Jul 27, 2012
5,449
53
Good analysis Kashmir. I like what you wrote and gives me a little hope.
Unfortunately I don't see the prospect of a black market stopping the gov't from getting its way. I sometimes think the gov't is quite content with a black market. It hasn't stopped the drug wars, which despite being a dismal failure, is still going on. The black market is a profitable thing for law enforcement. It keeps prisons filled and departments busy.
The exception was alcohol during prohibition. Too many people wanted it. Tobacco is a different story I think. I think that the majority of the public views tobacco as a bad thing - and so I doubt there won't be enough people to over-turn a prohibition if one comes.

 

plateauguy

Lifer
Mar 19, 2013
2,412
18
Have you noticed the irony here?
The government subsidizes the tobacco industry (farmers) and taxes the pants off of us (more to come) yet tells us that it's bad for us, and we shouldn't do it . . . then it will try to make tobacco illegal (while pot isn't) because we're not smart enough to do what is best for us. Maybe there will be "medicinal" tobacco use - that's how legalized pot got started in our state.

 

phred

Lifer
Dec 11, 2012
1,754
4
Tobacco is a different story I think. I think that the majority of the public views tobacco as a bad thing
Well, yes and no. There was a similar demonizing of alcohol by temperance groups, so there was certainly an effort to get the majority of the public to view alcohol as bad - I don't have any good information on just how successful that might have been, but the effort was definitely made.
The biggest difference that I see is the temperance movement's push for a constitutional amendment - legislation from the top down as differentiated from bottom up grassroots efforts at the local, county, and state levels (all of which also took place - witness the Jack Daniels distillery operating in an otherwise dry county...). So far, the anti-smoking efforts have not taken that route, perhaps observing the backlash that resulted in a net increase in alcohol consumption during the years it was illegal, the rise of organized crime to supply the black market demand (and look who's already involved in circumventing cigarette taxes...), and perhaps learning from the temperance movement's over-reaching.
It is interesting, however - when I've mentioned my pipe smoking, reactions are usually either neutral or positive ("Oh, I just love the smell of cherry pipe tobacco!" - one example...). It may be that some of the backlash is already happening.

 

numbersix

Lifer
Jul 27, 2012
5,449
53
Very interesting Phred.
So far, the anti-smoking efforts have not taken that route, perhaps observing the backlash that resulted in a net increase in alcohol consumption during the years it was illegal, the rise of organized crime to supply the black market demand (and look who's already involved in circumventing cigarette taxes...), and perhaps learning from the temperance movement's over-reaching.
Good point. It seems that the anti-smoking zealots have learned that lesson well.
Anti-tobacco groups and educational programs were started over 40 years ago. The anti-smoking message has infiltrated schools, gov't, etc. Plus there is medical evidence to back their stance up, which makes it even harder to defend even pipe smoking.
They have built-up tremendous momentum over the past 40 yrs. NZ is hoping to make tobacco illegal by 2025. If they were to make it illegal tomorrow, they'd likely have a big fight on their hands, but by slowly but surely taking small steps towards that goal, the majority don't feel overwhelmed by it until it's too late.
Reminds me of the story of the frog who is boiled to death merely by slowly raising the water temperature with such minute increases that it doesn't realize it's being boiled to death until it's too late.

 

puffy

Lifer
Dec 24, 2010
2,511
98
North Carolina
Ever notice how folks consider other folks to have bad habits and they want to save them from their evil ways while they maintain their own.Where does it all stop.Certainly not just with tobacco.

 

brdavidson

Lifer
Dec 30, 2012
2,017
5
Interesting point Puffy. Perhaps we should start an anti-religion lobby. Surely there have been far more deaths across the world at the hands of religion vs. tobacco. Since we seem to be at a stage of limiting our constitutional freedoms perhaps we should no longer allow God to "Bless America".
Obviously this was intended as tongue firmly in cheek. Merely trying to point out the ironies. I mean there was a huge hew and cry over banning the size of soda drinks, because "you can't tell me what to do". Yet barely anything over the idea of banning tobacco. Crazy world.

 

petergunn

Starting to Get Obsessed
Mar 3, 2013
183
2
I don't plan on giving up pipe smoking, but I often wonder if I will be forced to give it up within the next 3-5 years
everyone's fiscal breaking is different and if driven into the black-market I doubt I'll continue to smoke. The real irony is tobacco smokers are being shackled while the Tokers seem to be gaining more freedom in this crazy mixed up world we live in.

 

eazye77

Starting to Get Obsessed
Aug 21, 2012
247
0
Trust me!
Just like everything else out there, there will be a way to get around the system to maintain the hobby.

 

ffmurray

Starting to Get Obsessed
Apr 14, 2013
107
0
I plan on growing my own soon, and trying to make my own blends, if the government decides to let us keep our freedom, then I have a new hobby, if they try to get rid of it by making it UN as affordable for the common man then I will have it anyway. If they try to make it illegal to grow I guess I'm just SOL

 

drwatson

Lifer
Aug 3, 2010
1,721
5
toledo
All great points! One thing I have come to realize about the USA is we, yes WE are stupid (let the hate mail start)..I bleed red white and blue, and have bleed for this country as well! However we do not learn from our mistakes, and anything that happens bad to us, we forget when the next cool thing comes along. Goverment has been taking away our rights and freedoms for years, it's nothing new. But wave something in front of our faces to keep us from seeing what is really going on. Mark my words, within the next 10-15 years we will be chipped like dogs. And all in the name of security or id theft prevention. We keep electing these people who for the most part, do not care about us. They care about getting rich, and creating their own legacy.

 

doctorthoss

Part of the Furniture Now
Oct 6, 2011
618
9
I'm afraid I'm not that optimistic. The gov't isn't going to even blink at losing the tax revenue when they believe they will save far, far more on health costs by eliminating smoking. Secondly, no one is particularly scared of drug prohibition, either. Tobacco users are a minority in this country now (unlike alcohol users in the 20s), and our gov't has been willing to pursue drug criminalization on every other substance with no regard to the cost or the damage done. If they are willing to incarcerate a higher proportion of our population that Communist Russia or China has ever done over something like smoking pot, then I'm afraid that they will happily toss millions of tobacco users in jail.

I wish that weren't the case, but it is.

 

numbersix

Lifer
Jul 27, 2012
5,449
53
Doctorhoss - If ever it came to that, which I doubt it will, but if it ever did, I'd leave the country.
I think we're close to it. Laws are being changed at a rapid rate. The sad part is, it's not any better anywhere else.

 

ffmurray

Starting to Get Obsessed
Apr 14, 2013
107
0
it's getting bad and fast, but most people don't see it. There is no place to go without some sort of tyrannical government, no new frontiers to go after. If you do leave the country you have to prove the it's that you are not doing it for tax evasion purposes, and if you retain your citizenship for any reason, say you want to visit your family or friends you still have to pay us income taxes even though you don't live there or use the services they provide. I am afraid leaving is not the answer.

 

kashmir

Lifer
May 17, 2011
2,712
64
Northern New Jersey
Last thing I remember,

I was Running for the door,

I had to find the passage back

To the place I was before.

"Relax, " said the night man,

"We are programmed to receive.

You can check-out any time you like,

But you can never leave! "
Eagles. Hotel California.

 
Dec 24, 2012
7,195
456
I think I may invest in group 1 and 2 pipes - they could become really popular if the projected tax increases come to pass!

 

tennsmoker

Lifer
Jul 2, 2010
1,157
7
Anyone see Wall St Jnl lasts week? Story about the U.S. Senate passing legislation to require states to charge eTailers state taxes on goods purchased online. You will soon be paying state taxes on tobacco from say 4Noggins in my case, or C&D for another. The times are a changing

 
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