Pipes Magazine » Pipe Tobacco Discussion

Search Forums  
   
Tags:   

How Do You Estimate the Value of Your Tins?

(27 posts)
  • Started 8 months ago by litup
  • Latest reply from sablebrush52
  1. litup

    litup

    Member
    Joined: Oct 2015
    Posts: 157

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    I have spent a lot of time on eBay lately looking at prices being charged for different tins and it seems like there's no rhyme or reason to most of the asking prices. For most of the Buy It Now listings, it looks like the pricing strategy is to ask for the moon and hope someone bites.

    So I'm curious to hear if anyone has a rule of thumb they use to estimate a monetary value on their unopened tins of tobacco as they age? For example, if I bought a newly-packed GL Pease tin of Quiet Nights for $10.63 in 2016, can I reasonably add 5% each year and hope to get $20 for it in 12 or 13 years? Or perhaps tins don't increase in value at all until they are considered "vintage" and then they increase 10% a year?

    I realize that some blends will defy any standard that could be applied due to supply and demand (McClelland and Esoterica especially) so this question is more about an "average" tin.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  2. bassbug

    bassbug

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Dec 2016
    Posts: 899

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    Just curious...Are you buying tobacco as a financial investment?

    I don't care who you are, you're not walking on the water while I'm fishing
    Posted 8 months ago #
  3. crashthegrey

    crashthegrey

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Dec 2015
    Posts: 2,836

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    By how much I am looking forward to opening them when.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  4. litup

    litup

    Member
    Joined: Oct 2015
    Posts: 157

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    bassbug - not at all. I've never sold a tin of tobacco in my life. I'm a buyer/hoarder. But I am interested in the economics of the resale market.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  5. cosmicfolklore

    Cosmic

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Aug 2013
    Posts: 18,205

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    There are two ways that I employ in estimating value. The first is more mathematical. I take what I paid for teh tin and subtract 10% for every year that I have it in my cellar to follow the drop in value.

    The second way, is that I take them all to the top of a stairway and dump the box out at the top step. Whatever rolls the farthest down the stairs gets full value. The rest are devalued by how far short they ended up from the bottom step.

    If you can't tell, I think that if anyone values their tobacco to be above msrp, then good luck with that. People can charge what they want, but I'm not playing that game.

    Michael
    Posted 8 months ago #
  6. madox07

    madox07

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Dec 2016
    Posts: 1,359

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    I am interested in the economics of the resale market.

    It works just like any other product - supply and demand. You have people that think that because they aged a certain tin for 10 years, they can ask more than what they paid for if they sell it, as in charging for their effort of aging that tin. You don't find a 10 year old aged so and so blend on the market every they, so there may be a demand for aged tobacco. But then again, how can you be objective here? Are you going to take into account inflation just to determine what the value of you $ is now vs ten years ago? Give me a break... so it's a ballpark estimation that differs from individual to individual.

    You have your rare tins, blends that have been interrupted - and while I never chased those, I hear that some 90s or 80s blends in Europe come up and the seller asks hundreds of euros ... I guess that the Dunhill and McClelland craze works based on similar considerations, just because there is no market availability any more. Lack of supply spikes the price for the few goods left available.

    Then your current blends, due to tariffs and taxes they have similar prices for domestic blends, and over the top prices for your foreign blends - but over all pretty evened out price wise.

    Like bassbug mentioned, it's just a darn tobacco tin not you kid's college mutual fund. This being said, I think that cosmic's second method works best.

    Sea Wolf Pipers

    "Like the mariners of old, a loner is acceptable but a pipe is best enjoyed in a pack"
    Posted 8 months ago #
  7. npod

    npod

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Jun 2017
    Posts: 2,758

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    Pipestud or Maxim at pipes2smoke. Both are good bench marks for me. After a while you can get a general idea for the rare vs just the old/aged stuff vs the unobtainium. In my experiece, the Chinese buyers are where to look for the biggest margin. Some here know the contacts, they will pay nicely for rare and aged tins.

    Neal
    Posted 8 months ago #
  8. folanator

    folanator

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Nov 2015
    Posts: 675

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    It's worth what someone will pay in cash plus shipping.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  9. bassbug

    bassbug

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Dec 2016
    Posts: 899

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    litup,

    I hope you did not take my question as any way offensive or insulting. I asked because here in Canada we have seen tobacco taxed to astronomical levels with no end in sight. It may just be a sound financial investment for us here in the Great White North

    Posted 8 months ago #
  10. warren

    warren

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Sep 2013
    Posts: 7,635

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    litup: It's the value you place on the item. Not the value the seller puts on it. Simply, what you are willing to pay is the value you should be concerned with. There is no "bluebook" for blends.

    A man without a shillelagh is a man without an expedient.
    Posted 8 months ago #
  11. spartacus

    spartacus

    Senior Member
    Joined: Nov 2018
    Posts: 553

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    I paid extra for some McClelland and Dunhill because I never had the chance to try it. Now that I tried it I won't buy it again. Just wanted to see what it was like.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  12. seanv

    seanv

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Mar 2018
    Posts: 927

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    It is worth what they buyer thinks it is worth. Have you seen some of the consignment tins for sale at 4noggins?

    Posted 8 months ago #
  13. sablebrush52

    sablebrush52

    The Bard Of Barlings
    Joined: Jun 2013
    Posts: 9,761

    online

    Login to Send PM

    Prices vary widely, even on unobtainium. A couple of years ago there was a fellow selling tins from his cellar at the WCPS. I picked up a few tins of out of production blends, and an 8oz tin of OBB from 2005. I paid between $40 and $50 for the tins. On the secondary market, these tins go for between $90 and $375 for the same stuff.
    The seller knew he could get more, but he wasn't interested in gouging fellow pipe smokers. He had more in his cellar than he could use and disposed of 100 or so tins at the show.
    Generally, tins bring less than retail unless they're legendary OOP, unobtainium, or some form of "star" blend. That may change in the future. Your stash might become worth quite a bit of money, or completely worthless, based on any number of scenarios. Tobacco isn't an investment vehicle. Too many variables.

    It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt. - Mark Twain

    It is pointless to argue with a fanatic since a dim bulb can't be converted into a searchlight. - Jesse Silver
    Posted 8 months ago #
  14. User has not uploaded an avatar

    instymp

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Jul 2012
    Posts: 2,094

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    I don't know & don't want to step on your post, but..
    I have 4-5 Dunhill blends that I want to get rid of.
    I am liking VA only lately. Want to sell all at once.
    They are still available so if P&C sells a tin for $10, how much should ask?
    Litup, thanks for the post & sorry to jump in.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  15. shanez

    shanez

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Jul 2018
    Posts: 577

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    I count them and multiply by $1000

    Posted 8 months ago #
  16. btp79

    btp79

    Member
    Joined: Jan 2018
    Posts: 213

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    It's worth what someone will pay in cash plus shipping.

    this, economics 101. If a 50gr. tin of penzance sells for anything more than $18, I don't get mad because it was clearly worth more to the buyer than it was to me. I don't mean to sound glib, but years ago when my econ professor explained opportunity cost, it changed my whole perspective of how I viewed pretty much everything.

    But then again, I like PBR and Hamms, so life is pretty good!

    Posted 8 months ago #
  17. hiplainsdrifter

    hiplainsdrifter

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Jan 2012
    Posts: 1,027

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    but he wasn't interested in gouging fellow pipe smokers.

    This crap reminds me of when I went to a Rainbow Gathering during college. As soon as I got there, there was some derelict that wanted to siphon gas out of my car to get his van going that he drove 40 miles back into the mountains without enough gas. Rules about sharing have always been important in human society, but I really don't understand why some people think they should be treated like your next of kin, just because you are both pipe smokers. Regarding the OP, I think that Pipestud's page is good, you can also do an advanced search on Ebay to see what something actually sold for, but you will notice a surprising range even there. Like others mentioned, the Asian market is full of fat cats that want to pay big bucks just to have some unicorn in their collection. The hard part is many unicorns are unpredictable. Two years ago, you wouldn't have gotten 10 bucks for a tin of Frog Morton Cellar, but today they regularly sell for around 75. Go figure.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  18. pipestud

    pipestud

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Dec 2012
    Posts: 1,771

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    Litup, you've asked a question that I struggle with almost every day. As a re-seller of collectible pipe tobacco tins, the only thing I can tell you for sure is that pricing tins is not a "one size fits all" kind of thing. There are so many variables that I'd run out of cyber space trying to type them all in. A quick example of price point - a year 2004 two ounce tin of Pease Barbary Coast on my website would cost about $32. A year 2004 two ounce tin of Pease Bohemian Scandal would cost about $140. The blend and all of its variables is what makes the price.

    I have been running my website for over 11-years, so I use my past sales as a point of reference and try to set a price that is fair to my buyer, my consignor and me. Hitting on all cylinders is very difficult and frankly, just isn't possible many times. Others here who have responded to your question by saying that the value is what someone is willing to pay for it is indeed the best answer.

    Pipestud
    Posted 8 months ago #
  19. cosmicfolklore

    Cosmic

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Aug 2013
    Posts: 18,205

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    For clarification, my "attempted" humorous post about how I value "my" own tobaccos was... as stated... how I value my own tobaccos, because I won't ever sell my own tobaccos. How I value tobaccos that Pipestud posts is to decide how much I really want to try that blend, and if my wallet can easily take the hit. Sometimes it is easier to get with a group of friends and buy the tin to share together, as in friends from my pipe club.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  20. User has not uploaded an avatar

    chilly65

    Junior Member
    Joined: Nov 2018
    Posts: 72

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    Ebay is pretty much recognized as the price setter in today's world. Several private sellers have been mentioned here, but I don't think they represent the "going rate". Some of these private sellers sell too cheaply (McClelland comes to mind), while others ask ridiculously high prices.

    I try to price my stuff about 15-20% less than "sold" prices on ebay. Most people say I am too high, so I will just keep my stash for several more years.

    Mike

    Posted 8 months ago #
  21. cosmicfolklore

    Cosmic

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Aug 2013
    Posts: 18,205

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    When people tell me that something is too high, I tell them that they just can't afford it. Just because they are either too cheap or too poor, there is always someone who can afford it.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  22. cosmicfolklore

    Cosmic

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Aug 2013
    Posts: 18,205

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    I am, also reminded that this time of year, when Nike releases their newest line of shoes... teens and adults will line up outside the store at the mall just to pay $500 to $1500 for a pair of damned sneakers. I kid you not. It is a sight to behold.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  23. hoosierpipeguy

    hoosierpipeguy

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Jan 2018
    Posts: 1,958

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    Pipestud or Maxim at pipes2smoke. Both are good bench marks for me

    The best answer. The tins are worth what people are willing to pay for them at the time you're selling. Too many variables to do something as simple and apply a math formula. From what I've seen, people aren't willing to pay much of a premium for aging for easily obtainable blends. Now someone might pay $50 for 10 year old Escudo or Wessex Campaign brigade but you're not likely to sell 10 tins for $500 to one buyer. In other words, people may pay a hefty premium to treat themselves to one tin but won't cough up big money so they can smoked the same aged tobacco for the next year. At the same time, the same person might pay stupid money for a fresh bag of Penzance or discontinued McClelland tins.

    Posted 8 months ago #
  24. cigrmaster

    cigrmaster

    Preferred Member
    Joined: May 2012
    Posts: 13,850

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    I have tons of aged tins of the more popular flakes. If I were going to sell any, I would gouge people till their eyes were bleeding.
    I would have no mercy and if pipestud wanted me to sell though him, he would have to get with the program. Knowing Steve like I do, he would balk at my plans for world domination.

    Harris
    Posted 8 months ago #
  25. pipestud

    pipestud

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Dec 2012
    Posts: 1,771

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    Ebay is pretty much recognized as the price setter in today's world.-chilly65

    Actually Mike, I don't think that's even close to true. Prices of vintage tobacco - I'm talking the same blends - are all over the map on eBay on any given day. A year 2010 100g tin of Frog Morton may sell for $125 one day and $50 the next. And of course, prices being asked on a lot of the Buy it Now stuff are so outlandish that they never sell and the seller gets roasted, toasted, basted and slaughtered in pipe groups such as this one. Again, whether private websites like mine, eBay, or private sellers on pipesmagazine.com, the bottom line is what most of the members here have been saying, which basically is - "a tin is worth only what someone is willing to pay for it." One day that may be $200 for a tin of brand-X and the next day the same brand-x sells for $50. In my opinion, the recognized price setter in today's world of vintage tobaccos is the buyer, John Q. Public. We sellers can establish the prices, but it's the buyers who, in the end, establish the value, and its obvious that the value is all over the map... depending simply on what the buyer is willing to pay, today.

    Pipestud

    PS... and yes, Harris, I'm too old to try to dominate the world anymore. It pretty much dominates me. )-:

    Posted 8 months ago #
  26. npod

    npod

    Preferred Member
    Joined: Jun 2017
    Posts: 2,758

    offline

    Login to Send PM

    PS... and yes, Harris, I'm too old to try to dominate the world anymore. It pretty much dominates me. )-:

    LMAO

    Posted 8 months ago #
  27. sablebrush52

    sablebrush52

    The Bard Of Barlings
    Joined: Jun 2013
    Posts: 9,761

    online

    Login to Send PM

    Prices of vintage tobacco - I'm talking the same blends - are all over the map on eBay on any given day.

    Truer word were never spoke. I've followed prices of McClelland blends on eBay and have seen the same blend sell for wildly different amounts on the same day.

    Basic economics. Buyers set the price. Tobacco is a luxury item and vintage tobacco even more so. No one is being strong armed to pay a higher price for a tin of tobacco. Value is in the eye of the beholder.

    Posted 8 months ago #

Reply

You must log in to post.

 

 

    Back To Top  | Back to Forum Home Page

   Members Online Now
   sablebrush52