Dodging Snipers

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blueeyedogre

Lifer
Oct 17, 2013
1,552
30
Got my fingers crossed on a couple of flea bay bids. I'm the current bid leader on two different meers and hoping I don't get sniped on at least one of them.

 

mcitinner1

Lifer
Apr 5, 2014
4,043
24
Missouri
Never bid on something you want until the last five seconds of the auction.
I agree with this. Not letting any other bidders know your interested is the best way to keep the final price down. I know there are other trains of thought that work, but this one is golden. It's not a bad idea to try to warn off members, but it IS still an auction. All is fair.
I mentioned in a subject specific thread about the "quote" button not working like it used to for me. I've used this thing a BUNCH! It has changed.

 

lotharen

Starting to Get Obsessed
Jul 26, 2016
184
10
Yeah snipping is the way to go! That last few seconds.
Good luck!

 

ssjones

Moderator
Staff member
May 11, 2011
18,317
11,070
Maryland
postimg.cc
You will greatly increase your success ratio by sniping, particularly with any of the desired brands/shapes.

The toughest thing to beat is the auto-bid. You can't beat that by a manual snipe bid. I've lost plenty because I'm too cheap to buy the service. (and it would seem to take the excitement out of the process)

 

cossackjack

Lifer
Oct 31, 2014
1,052
647
Evergreen, Colorado
Yes, snipe. Put in the maximum amount that you are willing to pay in the last 5-10 seconds. If you lose, walk away. No regrets. Bid wisely, not emotionally, or you may pay too much (unless you really must have the item regardless of cost).

Another approach is to bid your maximum early, then let it ride & don't be tempted to get into a bidding battle. I tend to use this approach more often as it is not dependent upon watching the countdown timer & trying to time your sniping bid at the last moment.

 
Jan 4, 2015
1,858
11
Massachusetts
There is another alternative and that is to set your max bid at what you are willing to pay. As they say "set it and forget it". Every Pipe has a value to you so determine what that value is and make that your max bid. If you really want that pipe bid accordingly. It's not how cheaply you can get, it although that does help, it's about getting a pipe you really want at a price you're willing to pay.

 

hakchuma

Part of the Furniture Now
Jan 13, 2014
791
77
Sometimes I chuckle when I'm interested in a pipe for say $20. So and the end of the auction only one other person is bidding and I could not get my last bid in at the last second. If it were not for me, the poor fella could have walked away with a $20 pipe, but now he has to pay $100 for it. Often times too I'm the one who ends up just going against one other bidder and I win, and say to myself, well gush, I didn't want to pay that much.

 

sablebrush52

The Bard Of Barlings
Jun 15, 2013
19,623
44,833
Southern Oregon
jrs457.wixsite.com
Some myths die hard. I've seen sniping send countless objects into the stratosphere, multiples of times market value. Sniping depended on the element of surprise. That element of surprise hasn't existed for years as everyone and his idiot cousin snipes. Instead you get upwards of a dozen snipers shooting it out, and there's always two or more who just have to have the dingus at any price who collide in financial outer space.

Bid what you're willing to pay for an item and walk away. The amount of your bid isn't going to be revealed unless someone else tops it. All of my best buys were done that way. If someone else is willing to pay more, they will get the item, regardless. And with sniping software, any timing advantage is lost since it sends two or more users into a bidding duel, a financial death struggle. It's amusing to watch.

 

username

Lifer
Dec 24, 2014
2,084
14,237
Tucson Az
As a occasional ebay seller snipe away it increases my profit as people get into snipe wars. As I buyer I toss a max bid of what I at the most want to pay and walk away.

 

philobeddoe

Lifer
Oct 31, 2011
7,404
11,575
East Indiana
I don't bid at all until the last 10 seconds or so, I don't want to create any more interest in an item than it already has going. In the lady 10 seconds, I put in my max bid and let it ride, ive won plenty, but I've lost plenty also, I set my max bid and watch!

 

sjfine

Part of the Furniture Now
Mar 4, 2012
653
4
I too snipe. With the sole exception of BIN, I snipe everything I want. This has worked for me for everything from a Becker pipe to a Land Rover Discovery (sold locally).

 

ssjones

Moderator
Staff member
May 11, 2011
18,317
11,070
Maryland
postimg.cc
Of course if you put in the max you want to pay and "walk away" (bid early), chances are increased that you will lose the item. You increase your chances by putting that max bid in as late as possible.

Example

- you put in a $50 bid 2 days from auction end

- someone decides beat that bid a day out, by $1. Now your max bid is revealed and your bid must be either be increased or walk away.

- additionally you've now made the item more visible
If you hadn't bid at all, there is at least a chance that scenario doesn't occur.
- if you wait until 5 seconds from auction end, then you have a chance a competitor didn't go above that bid nor is much time left to top it manually.
The popularity of item and seller, day of the week and ending time all factor in to the likelihood of a sniper scenario.
I put my max in 5-6 seconds before auction end and hope for the best. If I didn't win, there's no telling what the upper end was. And, a like item will likely come up again. I move on.

 

jmatt

Part of the Furniture Now
Aug 25, 2014
770
74
Adding to ssjones: Bidding early on an item just gives others a chance to rethink themselves and outbid you when they wouldn't normally have done so. Let's say you're willing to pay $100 and another bidder is willing to pay $90. They bid $90 and aren't the high bidder. But there's three days to go. Now they know you're willing to pay more than $90, so maybe it's worth more after all. They ponder it for a while and bid again. Maybe they bid $95 (then repeat this story). Maybe they bid something over $100 and now you're out. So now you're staring at a price of $101 and thinking "hmmmm.....maybe I would pay more......" And the cycle goes on.
If you just bid with 5 seconds to go, you bid your $100, the other bidder bids their $90, and you win it for $91.
Bottom line: You just don't want to give competitors minutes, hours, or days to rethink their willingness to pay and decide to outbid you.

 
Jun 27, 2016
1,273
117
Bid your max early and shills can nibble you up and then retract, leaving you holding the bag at your max.

 

sablebrush52

The Bard Of Barlings
Jun 15, 2013
19,623
44,833
Southern Oregon
jrs457.wixsite.com
Bottom line: You just don't want to give competitors minutes, hours, or days to rethink their willingness to pay and decide to outbid you.
Of course if you put in the max you want to pay and "walk away" (bid early), chances are increased that you will lose the item.
That just hasn't been my experience, with the exception of one auction. And the forensics I've done on literally tens of thousands, and I do mean tens of thousands, of auctions over the last decade show a high incidence of gang sniping driving up the final price, sometimes into breathtaking heights.
That said, I usually don't bid until late in the auction. After all, why bother earlier. But the last second sniping as a tactic usually doesn't work because a bunch of people have the same bright idea at the same time, effectively nullifying that strategy.
As a occasional ebay seller snipe away it increases my profit as people get into snipe wars.
Truer words were never writ.

 
Jun 27, 2016
1,273
117
My thoughts have come to be that the ball's in your court until you throw that bid down. You see an item and come up with your max number. I've noticed that a lot of shill accounts are newly-minted with little to no feedback, and don't show up until someone bids because they know that a lot of people avoid an item with that type of bidder already on-board. The shills also sometimes might have bids on other items with the same seller, and maybe a couple bid retractions. You snipe at the last second if the item is still below your pre-determined max, then no one can react. Worst thing that can happen is that another sniper or the current top bidder or even a shill has a high proxy and over-pays and drives past your max, which you should not care about anyway if it is really the max that you have already decided that you should pay before you bid. A lot of shills don't snipe to win because obviously they don't want to win and then retract since next in line will only get a "second chance" offer, rather than being stuck with max-bid if the shill has time to run you up and then retract before the end. I don't know how long it generally takes to retract a bid, but that would be interesting to know. Last second bidding also ensures that you don't talk yourself into bidding again and overpaying, or driving up "the market" if you still lose.
The only reason that I could ever come up with for bidding ahead of time is if the item is not rare but not popular either, has a low starting bid, and also a reasonable Buy It Now that is slightly higher than you think you can get it for or want to pay, but low enough that someone else might actually buy it if it sits. I'll bid the minimum, no proxy. Since a bid has been placed, the BIN goes away, and I'll throw my max bid proxy at the last second if the item is still below my max. Trick here is to remember what the BIN was and your max was or else you might end up paying more if you forget, lol. I used this strategy once and ended up losing because the auction went over my max, over the original BIN and a few dollars more to boot at the last second. Nothing you can do about that but wait for the next one to come along, which I did, and ended up paying half as much anyway.

 

ssjones

Moderator
Staff member
May 11, 2011
18,317
11,070
Maryland
postimg.cc
My last second bid is my max and what I'm willing to pay, no matter what other bidders or shills are doing. So if the pipe is won for that amount, I'm satisified. I've been buying pipes on Ebay for only the past five years. I've been sniping for about the last 4.5 (hey, I'm a slow learner). In that time, I've bought over 200 pipes with a pretty decent success ratio. So, until something changes with Ebay (and things ALWAYS change with Ebay), I'm sticking with that strategy.
Heres a recent example:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/401162962031?_trksid=p2057872.m2749.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT
Bids are in British pounds. I think my max bid was L 40.59 (I always put in an odd number). A sniper put in a bid two seconds after my bid (I bet this was an auto bid, that was cutting it pretty close. The pipe cost me $50. I thought it would bring $75 to even $100 (pre-Republic, very rare shape). So I thought the odds of winning with my max was poor. If I had bid earlier, I most likely would have lost it for a few dollars.

 
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